Analysis: 5 Keys to a Seahawks Victory Over 49ers in NFC West Opener

With both teams facing a sense of urgency in early October coming off of tough losses a week ago, the Seahawks and 49ers will rekindle their bitter rivalry in their respective NFC West openers on Sunday.

Unable to maintain a 17-7 lead in the first half, Russell Wilson and the Seahawks were shut out in the second half and ultimately fell 30-17 to Vikings, falling to 1-2 for the first time since 2018. As for the 49ers, Jimmy Garoppolo led a valiant comeback effort against the Packers, only for Aaron Rodgers to orchestrate a game-winning drive in the final 40 seconds to hand them their first loss of the year.

Aiming to avoid their first three-game losing streak since 2011, what must the Seahawks accomplish to open their divisional schedule in the win column? Here are five keys to a Week 4 victory at Levis Stadium:

1. Score points in every single quarter.

This may seem like an elementary request of an NFL offense, but the Seahawks have been plagued by putrid second half performances through three games. Largely impacted by scoring zero points in the third quarter so far this year, they are averaging less than five points per game after halftime, barely more than a field goal and dead-last among 32 NFL teams. Losing the time of possession battle has limited opportunities for Wilson and the offense, but they also haven't been able to move the chains and have struggled converting on third downs to extend drives.

The good news? The 49ers have been one of the worst defenses in the league after halftime, allowing 14.6 points per game in the third and fourth quarter, which ranks 26th in the league. They also have allowed more 40-plus yard pass plays than any team in the NFL. Facing a banged-up secondary that already lost cornerback Jason Verrett for the season and will likely be without veteran Josh Norman on Sunday, Wilson should be able to get the football to DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett throughout the game as long as pass protection holds up - which is a big if. Even if they are getting field goals on a few possessions, the team has to find a way to sustain drives and score points throughout the game to snag a tough road win.

2. Stick with Chris Carson and the run game while also getting backs involved as receivers.

When Seattle has gotten Carson and Alex Collins involved this year, good things have happened. Carson opened the season with an efficient 91-yard performance in a win over the Colts and had nearly 80 rushing yards and a 30-yard touchdown run before halftime last week against the Vikings, while Collins has averaged 11 yards per carry on limited touches in a reserve role. The biggest issue has been sticking with the run game, something offensive coordinator Shane Waldron hasn't been able to do in the second half of games due to numerous factors. Carson has only one game with more than 15 carries and Collins has three carries total.

This week, Waldron can't make any excuses. Carson and Collins, who ran well against the 49ers in Week 17 back in January, need to be focal points in the game plan against a defense that has given up 4.7 yards per carry this year and had their share of issues slowing down the run. Seattle would also be wise to get its backs involved in the passing game, as San Francisco has surrendered the third-most receptions and seventh-most receiving yards to running backs through three weeks. The goal should be 30 combined touches minimum for Seattle's backs and if Waldron can make that happen, the pressure should be taken off the offensive line and open up play passes for Wilson to capitalize on a vulnerable secondary.

3. Win on early downs on both sides of the football.

Again, this might seem like a simple goal, but the Seahawks have been one of the NFL's worst defenses at limiting opponents on first and second down, which has been a crucial factor in struggling to get off the field. Per Football Outsiders, the team currently ranks 27th in defensive DVOA on first downs and has allowed 5.2 yards per carry on first down runs. On second down passes, they also rank 27th in DVOA and have allowed 9.7 yards per pass attempt, the third-highest mark in the league. The reality is that the Seahawks haven't been getting opponents into ideal third down situations enough and starting on Sunday, they have to find ways to win more often on first and second down to help get the ball back to Wilson and the offense.

When Wilson and his counterparts do have the ball, the Seahawks have been one of the league's best on first down, posting the third-highest DVOA behind only the Rams and Cowboys. But they haven't been near as effective on first downs in the second half of games, often doomed by penalties and sacks that push them well behind the sticks. Those types of mistakes can't happen against the 49ers, who will sick Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, and Dee Ford on Wilson in obvious passing situations on second or third and long. Early down success will be pivotal to slowing down the rush while also allowing Waldron to keep his entire playbook open well into the second half.

4. Limit yards after contact and after the catch.

When it comes to their aerial attack, the 49ers have limitations getting the ball downfield with Jimmy Garoppolo under center. The deep ball isn't a strength in his game and they have just six completions of 20-plus yards this year as a result. But as evidenced by their ninth overall scoring offense, Kyle Shanahan's unit can do plenty of damage without the explosives by running the football effectively and carving up defenses with the short-to-intermediate passing game as well as screens. Swarming to the football and tackling well will be critical to the Seahawks chances of slowing them down and limiting possession time.

Seattle won't be able to - and quite frankly should be discouraged from based on results alone - playing the loose off-ball coverage on the outside they deployed with cornerbacks Tre Flowers and D.J. Reed against the Vikings last week. If San Francisco wins downfield a few times, so be it. The goal should be to play physical press coverage against Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel in an attempt to thwart the quick passing game and force Garoppolo to hang onto the football longer in the pocket. When those players do have the ball in their hands, particularly the human pinball that is Samuel, the key will be getting them down to the ground quickly and limiting yards after the reception.

5. Play assignment sound football defensively and avoid busted coverages.

Few coaches in the NFL are better at scheming to take advantage of defensive flaws than Shanahan, who had to be licking his lips watching Seattle's dysfunctional unit allow over 400 yards of offense in Minnesota. There were several plays last Sunday where the secondary botched coverage assignments and communication wasn't on point, while the pass rush was near non-existent and the Vikings were able to impose their will in the trenches with the run game in the second half even without star running back Dalvin Cook.

After watching that debacle, Shanahan will be eager to get the 49ers' ground game untracked and the potential return of rookie back Elijah Mitchell should help immensely. Getting traction running the ball would help set up play action and one of the more diverse screen games in the league, which could put the Seahawks maligned defense in a major bind with the entire playbook opened up. Putting it simply, coach Pete Carroll's defense cannot afford the same assignment and execution-related problems they suffered a week ago or Shanahan will put on a play calling clinic and this game could get ugly early. But if they are able to clean things up in coverage and keep everything in front of them, this can be a "get right" game on that side of the ball.

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