Will Seahawks Open Up the Skies Against Buccaneers?

Back in November 2016, the 7-2-1 Seahawks traveled cross country to visit the 5-5 Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay.

Needing a win to keep pace for homefield advantage in the NFC, Seattle’s offense sputtered in the humid heat of southern Florida. Quarterback Russell Wilson played one of the worst games of his career while under constant duress, throwing for only 151 yards while getting sacked six times and tossing two interceptions, including one by current teammate Bradley McDougald.

Making matters worse, the Seahawks couldn’t run the football at all against a defensive front headlined by Gerald McCoy. Though Wilson rushed for 80 yards himself, starting running back Thomas Rawls produced just 38 yards on 12 carries and the ground game couldn’t find traction, leading to just three offensive points in the game.

Nearly three years later, both teams have undergone massive coaching and personnel changes. As Wilson correctly told reporters on Thursday, those past matchups have no relevance to Sunday’s upcoming game.

But oddly, the narrative going into this latest matchup may be very similar, as Seattle will be squaring off against an aggressive, blitz-heavy Tampa Bay defense that ranks first in the league defending the run in numerous metrics and has produced quarterback knockdowns on 8.1 percent of opposing pass attempts.

With an offensive line built for run blocking and the duo of Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny in the backfield, Seattle has the pieces to run the ball against anyone. But trying to generate push against a stout defensive front headlined by massive run stuffing defensive tackles Vita Vea and Ndamukong Suh will present the biggest challenge for Brian Schottenheimer’s group yet.

“It’s a heavy box.” Schottenheimer said. “They’ve got a bunch of guys up in the front. They’re extremely big and powerful up in the front. Again, if there’s a bigger tandem than [Vita] Vea and [Ndomukong] Suh and those guys, you don’t find it very often.”

The Buccaneers have limited opponents to a paltry three yards per carry and surrendered just one run of more than 20 yards through seven games. Opponents are averaging 68 rushing yards per game, which is nearly 15 yards less than the second-best run defense in the league.

Everything starts up front with the powerful Suh and Vea, who create stalemates and eat up double teams at the line of scrimmage, keeping athletic linebackers Devin White and Lavonte David clean to make tackles in bunches. Tampa Bay also welcomed back veteran defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul last week, further bolstering the defensive front.

“ They just play [the run] really well.” Schottenheimer added. “The two linebackers are really good at filling gaps, [Devin] White and [Lavonte] David. The two edge players, JPP [Jason Pierre-Paul] coming back certainly helps them last week. [Carl] Nassib and [Shaquil] Barrett on the other side of them, they’re not just pass rushers. They’re good run defenders.”

“I think some of it’s scheme. Some of it’s personnel. They’re big and strong. They’re hard to move.”

If there’s a caveat to Tampa Bay’s excellence defending the run, it’s the fact Bowles’s unit has been plagued by a porous pass defense ranking among the NFL’s worst in most significant categories.

Though the pass rush has improved from a year ago in large part due to a breakthrough season from linebacker Shaquill Barrett, who already has 10.0 sacks, the Buccaneers have given up 285 passing yards per game, second-worst behind only the Lions. They’ve also allowed 14 touchdown passes and the fifth-most total air yards on completions.

As expected with Bowles at the controls, Tampa Bay blitzes on 47.9 percent of quarterback drop backs, second only to the Ravens. While that aggressiveness could cause problems for Seattle’s offensive line, especially without starting center Justin Britt, Wilson has shredded opponents when dialing up extra pressure this year.

According to Pro Football Focus, Wilson has the third-highest passer rating (122.9) against the blitz this season. He’s completed nearly 70 percent of his passes and thrown nine touchdowns with just one interception when opponents bring additional defenders.

Given his success torching defenses who blitz and the Buccaneers persistent struggles stopping the pass, this looks like a game where the Seahawks should be in attack mode throwing the football early. Receivers Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf have favorable matchups on the outside against Carlton Davis and Vernon Hargreaves.

But despite the apparent advantage, Wilson continues to preach balance. He doesn’t envision the Seahawks diverting from their identity and how they plan to attack their opponent offensively.

“We’re definitely going to want to run it. We’re definitely going to want to try to do our thing. We have one of the best running offenses in the league as well. It’s going to be a battle up front, for sure, trying to run the football. We’re looking forward to it. Hopefully, when we do throw it, we make our plays and we do our thing. It’s all about execution.”

Going against Bowles, a coordinator who previously had success rattling Wilson while running Arizona’s defense, having the backing of a run game to compliment him could go a long ways towards keeping him protected and provide a better opportunity for him to capitalize on Tampa’s suspect secondary.

But at the same time, as learned the hard way against the Cowboys top-ranked run defense in the playoffs last January, Schottenheimer and Carroll can’t be stubborn either. Constantly getting stuffed for one and two-yard gains will play right into Bowles’s hands and ultimately make life tougher on Wilson and the rest of the offense.

Heading into the second half of the season, if the Seahawks aren’t able to run the ball with great effectiveness, hopefully the coaching staff has learned from that distasteful playoff defeat and will give Wilson the keys to the offense in a must-win game at CenturyLink Field on Sunday.

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