Is Russell Wilson Going To Make The NFL Hall of Fame?

Now that Russell Wilson has (probably) hung up his cleats, we can ask the big question concerning where he ultimately ends up.

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (3) against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

I’m sure if you asked Russell Wilson, he’d reject the notion that his recent decision to take a job as an analyst on the CBS NFL pregame show constitutes retirement. He’d call it a temporary commitment while he waits for opportunities in the league to present themselves to him. Perhaps an injury giving him a run at a starting job somewhere. Sounds like something he’d say.

But I’m going to just call him retired for the time being, with the door left open for him to pull a Jay Cutler or Philip Rivers at some point. Meaning that we now know the totality of his NFL career, from decade-long franchise quarterback in Seattle to third string veteran teacher on the New York Giants. So, is that career enough to make the NFL Hall of Fame?

It’s not really an answerable question, as there’s no objective markers that determine Hall of Fame induction, and it’s ultimately up to the subjective whims of the voters whenever Russell comes up on the ballot. But we can lean on history and try to determine what it takes for a quarterback to get in, and compare Wilson. So, let’s give it a try.

Peak

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (3) passes the ball from his end zone against the Washington Football Team. | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

How good you were at your best is perhaps the best indicator of your value as a player. Of the 28 quarterbacks currently in the NFL Hall of Fame, 19 of them won at least one league MVP award, so that’s a pretty strong qualifier. However, there are at least five quarterbacks who won an MVP award and didn’t make the hall, so it doesn’t quite punch your ticket.

All seven quarterbacks who have won multiple MVPs in their career who are hall eligible are in. Of the eleven quarterbacks with only one MVP who are in the hall, nine won at least one championship. The only QB in NFL history to win an MVP and a championship without making the hall is Earl Morrall, who wasn’t the starter for those championships.

So, we’ll call it a rule. If a quarterback wins two MVPs, or wins one while also winning a championship as a starter, he gets in. Russell, of course, has no MVP award at all, so this rule doesn’t apply to him. While his peak was good in its own way, even his best years never even earned so much as an MVP vote, so he won’t be getting HOF credentials here.

Championships

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (3) celebrates with the Vince Lombardi Trophy after winning Super Bowl XLVIII. | Matthew Emmons-Imagn Images

Another way a quarterback can be immortalized is through winning at the highest level. 22 of the 28 quarterbacks in the hall of fame won at least one championship in their careers, and 15 of them won multiple. We know Wilson has one of these, but NFL history is littered with plenty of one time champions who didn’t get enshrined in the hall. It’s not enough.

Is two championships enough? Phil Simms would say no, but his circumstance is a bit irregular since he was injured and missed the end of the season for the 1990 Giants. However, Jim Plunkett and Eli Manning have no such caveat. Both have multiple championships and have yet to be inducted, so the rule doesn’t survive stress testing.

So it’ll have to be three. 7 quarterbacks have three or more championships, and they’re all in Canton. We may cherish Wilson’s one title as Seahawks fans, as it was our first as a franchise, but it’s not going to get him in. We’re going to have to find something else.

Volume Stats

Chicago Bears safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson (35) sacks New York Giants quarterback Russell Wilson (3). | David Banks-Imagn Images

There is a pathway for quarterbacks to make Canton without winning awards or championships. You play long enough, accumulate a bunch of yards and touchdowns, and eventually, you knock down the doors. Drew Brees won one title and never won MVP, but retired as the all-time leader in passing yards and second in touchdowns, which got him in first ballot.

Dan Fouts got in through his volume stats, as did Sonny Jurgensen, Dan Marino, Warren Moon, Fran Tarkenton, and Y.A. Tittle. They all retired at least top four in both yards and touchdowns. Len Dawson was top ten in both, which combined with his titles to make his resume sufficient. It’s not the whole picture, but it’s a part of it that can at least bridge a gap.

Russell Wilson has put up some stats in his time, but they’re not quite at the level that we’re looking for here. He’s currently 16th in yards and 12th in touchdowns. Perhaps those (still notable) numbers could combine with his efficiency (5th in career passer rating) to overcome it. That’s a tricky game to play, as a brief glance at the passer rating leader list will prove.

Caveats

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson runs for four yards before before run down by Green Bay Packers outside linebacker Clay Matthews. | Mark Hoffman / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

So, based on my best attempts to objectively translate the NFL Hall of Fame’s history into a list of criteria that a quarterback has to fulfill to get in, Wilson falls short. But, that doesn’t mean he won’t make it. Let’s talk about some aspects that this study didn’t capture.

First, there’s one player in the hall of fame who also fell short in all of these measures but still found his way in. Jim Kelly, who won no MVPs or titles and retired barely lingering around the top ten in volume stats, and yet made it in on the first ballot. While there are some objective measurements that justify his induction, like four Super Bowl trips, his resume is thin.

Do we really want to play the ‘if X gets in, then Y should get in too’ game here? I certainly don’t, but I do think it’s fair to say that Russell Wilson’s resume is stronger than Kelly’s. There’s a certain abstract element here that I think helped Kelly, which I think plays to Wilson’s advantage as well, as he was something of a ‘face’ of the NFL despite never winning an MVP.

But going back to stats, there’s another angle. Wilson is 4th all-time in rushing yards for a quarterback, and is on a short-list of best dual-threat quarterbacks in NFL history. Maybe that puts him over the top, assuming that it’s a close call otherwise?

I don’t buy the idea that Russ played himself out of the hall. I’m not convinced that that’s a real thing that can happen, and if it does I think it requires far more off-field problems than on-field struggles. So he can still do it. But I suspect that if he gets in, he’ll be doing it via a path that no other player in NFL history has walked before.

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