Regression Coming for Steelers WR George Pickens - And That's Okay
Classifying Pittsburgh Steelers wideout George Pickens's rookie season as anything but a success would be foolish after he provided a spark down the field despite playing in one of the league's most anemic passing attacks.
The Georgia product isn't anywhere close to his ceiling, and that means there's still quite a bit of room for growth and improvement. That continued development will be crucial for him because regression is likely coming in one area: the contested catch department.
One of the things that assuredly drew the Steelers to Pickens through the draft process was his big play ability, which he showcased throughout his rookie season. Most of those big plays were a result of him displaying plus body control and a knack for high-pointing the football in the air with defenders draped all over him. Pittsburgh had been searching for a player with his size and skill set for quite a while, and Pickens looked every bit the part as a rookie.
Pickens hauled in 19 of his 28 contested catch opportunities last season. Only D.K. Metcalf and Justin Jefferson brought in more throughout 2022. For as exciting as those plays are in real-time, there's a reason that contested catch opportunities are consistently referred to as "50/50 balls." Wide receivers coaches swear these chances are nearly automatic while defensive back coaches laugh at the notion, but there's reason to believe that a 68% contested catch rate just isn't sustainable on a yearly basis.
If you look around the league at some of the game's best "ball winners," you'll find that even the most dominant weapons in the league will have varying numbers on a yearly basis. All numbers courtesy of PFF.
Mike Williams (LAC):
2022- 15/26 (57.7%)
2021- 21/41 (51.2%)
2020- 14/29 (48.3)
Tee Higgins (CIN):
2022- 19/33 (57.6%)
2021- 18/43 (41.9%)
2020- 12/35 (34.3%)
D.K. Metcal (SEA):
2022- 24/47 (51.1%)
2021- 9/26 (34.6%)
2020- 14/29 (48.3%)
A.J. Brown (PHI):
2022- 15/32 (46.9%)
2021- 13/26 (50.0%)
2020- 19/31 (61.3%)
As you can see, these numbers will fluctuate from year to year because contested catch opportunities are typically less than ideal circumstances for completions for various reasons. A receiver could get targeted despite being blanketed by good coverage from the defensive back. There are times when a receiver creates separation but an inaccurate throw actually leads the receiver back into a contested catch situation. There are other variables at play here, which must be accounted for when discussing this statistic.
There has been this idea floating around on Twitter that Pickens finds himself in these situations because he can't separate efficiently. If you watch the film, there's reason to believe otherwise, even though it would be silly to disregard this as an area that he needs to improve upon. Pickens's route tree itself has a little bit to do with that.
The rookie ran 176 vertical routes last season (go/fades), 39 more than the next-highest receiver in the NFL, according to Sports Info Solutions. Nearly a third of his routes last season were nine routes down the sideline, making him a bit predictable. Just from a stamina perspective, if you're running far down the field that many times against NFL-caliber corners, you're likely to get worn down a little bit as the game goes on. You would also see Pickens take a play or two off completely when he was on the backside of a progression, knowing that he wasn't going to be targeted, which is something else that should be taken into account.
Pickens improved as the season went on against press coverage, but he still needs to tighten up his routes and fine-tune some of the more detailed nuances of the position, which will allow him to separate more consistently in the underneath and intermediate areas of the field. But in order for him to continue working on these things, he has to be given the chance to do more than just run straight down the field.
It also probably doesn't help that he gets compared side by side with Diontae Johnson, who is one of the best route runners in all of football thanks to his unique ability to get in and out of breaks with ease. Pickens could certainly learn a thing or two in regard to deception and pace manipulation, but it's not all that simple. Pickens is a completely different receiver with a much different body type. A hitch route from Johnson, who's five inches shorter and 20 pounds lighter than Pickens, is going to naturally look smoother from a physics perspective.
Pickens is insanely talented, and the optimism regarding his future is completely warranted. He's always going to be an impact player with the ball in the air, but the key to unlocking his near-limitless potential is for him to continue to round out his game to become a complete player. There's been a lot of talk about getting him more involved in the offense next season, but if you look around the league at the top target earners in the sport, almost all of them are efficient route runners and separators.
It's unlikely that Pickens is going to haul in contested catches at a 68% rate again next season. The truth is that he shouldn't have to, so long as he continues to work on his craft in the offseason. With Pittsburgh heavily invested in maximizing his potential, it's in everyone's best interest to help him mold into more than just a one-trick pony.
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