Super Bowl LX: 10 Key Factors That Will Decide the Outcome in Seahawks-Patriots

Here’s everything you need to know, including who wins and why.

Patriots quarterback Drake Maye and Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold will likely decide Sunday's Super Bowl outcome. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

On Sunday night, one team will be elated, while the other will be crushed. 

The Seahawks and Patriots both won 14 games in the regular season, with Seattle earning home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs while New England was the AFC’s second seed. Seattle romped past the 49ers, 41–6, in the divisional round before outlasting the Rams, 31–27, in the championship game. The Patriots have put on a defensive clinic over the past three weeks, allowing only 16 total points against the Chargers, Texans and Broncos. 

At Levi’s Stadium, the sides will clash for a second time on the sport’s biggest stage, the last time in Super Bowl XLIX, when Malcolm Butler’s interception of Russell Wilson sealed the Patriots’ fourth Lombardi Trophy. This time around, the teams are far less experienced, with both coaches and quarterbacks making their first Super Bowl appearances (Sam Darnold was San Francisco’s backup in 2023 but didn’t play). 

Here’s everything you need to know about Super Bowl LX.

When Seattle has the ball

• The Patriots struggled early in the year against top receivers. Over the first 10 weeks of the season, New England’s defense allowed big games when facing premier talents, including Brock Bowers (103 yards), Tyreek Hill (109), Drake London (118) and Emeks Egbuka (115). However, over the past 10 weeks (including playoffs), no one has cracked the century mark. And the Patriots are 9–1 over that stretch, allowing more than 20 points only twice. 

• Of course, New England faces a unique challenge this week with the NFL’s leading receiver in Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who totaled 119 receptions for 1,793 yards and 10 touchdowns in the regular season. Smith-Njigba had at least 100 yards in 10 of his 19 games this year, topping 90 yards on 14 occasions. If New England is going to pull off the upset, it must contain Smith-Njigba with cornerbacks Carlton Davis III, Christian Gonzalez and Marcus Jones. 

• Should New England limit Smith-Njigba, the question becomes whether the other Seattle receivers can step up. Rashid Shaheed was brought in at the trade deadline from New Orleans. While he’s been a special teams dynamo with two return touchdowns on the year, he has only one postseason catch after 15 receptions across nine regular-season games with Seattle. Cooper Kupp has also been relatively quiet, amassing more than 60 yards only twice all year.

• While the Seahawks are without running back Zach Charbonnet due to a knee injury, they’ve been getting inspired play from soon-to-be free agent Kenneth Walker III. Walker has posted three of his top-four rushing yardage totals over the past five games, including 100-yard efforts in wins over the Rams and 49ers. He’ll be facing a solid run defense in the Patriots, though, who are 11th in EPA per rush (-0.07) and 13th in yards per carry allowed (4.2).

• If Darnold should have one concern up front, it’s his interior matched up against New England’s big-bodied pass rushers. Milton Williams was brought in on a $104 million deal last offseason, and he’s paid dividends. Combined with Christian Barmore, the duo accounted for 87 pressures and 5.5 sacks in the regular season. Over three playoff games, they’ve totaled 16 pressures and three sacks, raising their collective games to another level.

When New England has the ball

• New England needs Drake Maye to return to form. In these playoffs, the Patriots played the fifth-, first- and second-ranked defenses in the league and averaged 18 points per game. Now, they draw the unit that was sixth in yards and first in points. If Maye is going to return to his second-team All-Pro form, it’ll be because of the deep ball. Maye posted a league-best 62.8 EPA on throws of 20-plus yards while completing 52.1% of those attempts. Only Sam Darnold was better with at least 30 attempts. Maye needs to not only threaten with the deep ball, but he also needs to hit on a few.

• Continuing on the topic of Maye, he’s been struggling since the playoffs began. The second-year star has completed just 55.3% of his attempts with 533 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions while fumbling six times (losing three). Life won’t get easier against the Seahawks, who have a loaded secondary with safeties Julian Love and Coby Bryant, and corners Devon Witherspoon, Riq Woolen and Josh Jobe. Seattle ranked eighth in EPA per pass against (-0.17) and allowed only three 300-yard passing games, two versus Matthew Stafford, in the regular season.

• In the passing game, Hunter Henry could be the X-factor. Seattle hasn’t been bad in dealing with tight ends this year, but the Seahawks rank 16th in DVOA against the position while allowing 64 opponent-adjusted yards per game, according to Aaron Schatz of ESPN+. Henry has been terrific in his age-31 season, catching 60 passes for 768 yards and seven touchdowns. When the Patriots get into the red zone, Henry is a significant factor.

• New England’s inability to run lately is concerning. In the postseason, Rhamondre Stevenson and rookie TreVeyon Henderson have run the ball 75 times, gaining 251 yards, an average of 3.3 yards per carry. The Seahawks' running game being out of sync is a concern, as they surrendered a league-low 3.7 yards per carry in the regular season. If Stevenson and Henderson can’t get going, especially on early downs, it could be a significant problem for the Patriots.

• Last year, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs stood no chance against the Eagles, with Philadelphia annihilating Kansas City’s offensive line. A similar situation could play out for the Patriots if they aren’t careful. New England has allowed five sacks in each of its three playoff games, with rookie left tackle Will Campbell struggling mightily. On the year, only Cam Ward, Geno Smith and Justin Herbert were sacked more often than Maye. While Seattle doesn’t have a superstar edge rusher, it has a bevy of quality options in Leonard Williams, DeMarcus Lawrence, Byron Murphy II, Uchenna Nwosu and others. 

Line score

Seattle is a 4.5-point favorite. Of the previous 59 Super Bowls, the favorites are 38–21 straight up. However, the recent trend is underdogs finding a way to the finish line. Over the past 14 Super Bowls, underdogs have won 10 times, including each of the past three. 

Against the spread, favorites are 30-27-2, but again, underdogs have been excellent lately, covering in 13 of the past 18 Super Sundays.

Prediction: Seattle 27, New England 17

The Patriots are a live underdog in this game, but they’re also a deserved underdog. 

Seattle has the better roster and employs the best player in this game with Smith-Njigba, who could become only the ninth receiver ever to win Super Bowl MVP honors. Ironically, the last receiver to take home that hardware? Teammate Cooper Kupp, who did so with the Rams in Super Bowl LVI. 

For the Seahawks, this game is about minimizing errors. Darnold had a great year, but he was also third in the NFL with 14 interceptions. If he has to take a sack or throw the ball away, fine. He can’t throw it to the Patriots. As for the defense, make Maye and New England’s sputtering run game take the long road. Don’t give up the big play, and the Patriots have to play near-perfect football. 

There’s a path for New England to win on Sunday. It needs to win on the inside with Williams and Barmore. It needs to limit Smith-Njigba with its aforementioned trifecta of corners. It needs Maye to play like the MVP candidate he deservedly was in the regular season. 

But the Seahawks have an easier path. Play a solid game, and they’ll be champions.

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