Four Key Matchups That Could Decide Super Bowl LX

Our early preview of the Seahawks and Patriots also includes x-factors, key stats and a score prediction.

The Patriots’ offensive line has had a tough time protecting quarterback Drake Maye during the playoffs. | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

The 2025 NFL season has been bizarre. It’s been enthralling. It’s also down to one game. 

In the Super Bowl, the Seahawks and Patriots will square off at Levi’s Stadium with each looking to add to their trophy cases. Seattle has just one championship, famously falling a yard shy of back-to-back titles when it lost to New England in Super Bowl XLIX. Of course, the Patriots have won plenty over the years with six championships to reminisce about. 

This game, though, is about the present. It’s about Sam Darnold trying to prove he was worth a top-three pick so long ago in New York. It’s about Mike Vrabel and Drake Maye trying to restore the glory years in New England, years that seemed so distant not that long ago. It’s about veterans like Stefon Diggs and DeMarcus Lawrence attempting to fulfill a lifetime ambition and win their first titles. 

But like every game, it’s also about the matchups within the matchups. It’s about the little-known numbers that could loom large as the contest heats up. 

And for those, we dive in deep with our first look at Super Bowl LX.

Four matchups to watch

1. New England’s offensive line vs. Seattle’s front

If there’s been one consistent problem for the Patriots this year, it’s been trying to keep Drake Maye upright. Maye was sacked 47 times this season, more than anybody not named Cam Ward, Geno Smith or Justin Herbert. 

All told, New England allowed a pressure rate of 38.3% and a sack rate of 8.7%, ranking sixth- and seventh-worst respectively. The offensive line also has a pair of rookies in left tackle Will Campbell and guard Jared Wilson. The inexperience has shown through in the playoffs, as the Patriots have allowed 15 sacks in three games. 

Meanwhile, Seattle’s defense has the fourth-best pressure rate at 38.9% despite blitzing at the 25th-highest rate in football (22.0%). With a front consisting of DeMarcus Lawrence, Leonard Williams, Byron Murphy II, Boye Mafe, Uchenna Nwosu and others, the Seahawks pose a major issue for New England.

2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. Patriots’ corners

Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba has a claim to being the NFL’s best wideout after his prolific season. | Kevin Ng-Imagn Images

Smith-Njigba led the league with 1,793 receiving yards this year. On Sunday, he went off against the Rams in the NFC title game, catching 10 passes on 12 targets for 153 yards and a touchdown. Now, he faces what is one of the NFL’s best secondaries. 

New England comes into the Super Bowl with three of the top-25 graded corners on Pro Football Focus in Carlton Davis III (No. 17), Marcus Jones (No. 23) and Christian Gonzalez (No. 24). With no other Seattle receiver even amassing 600 yards in the regular season, it’ll be interesting to see how the Patriots attempt to take Smith-Njigba out of the game. 

For New England, pass defense against the Seahawks should be centered around limiting Smith-Njigba’s routes run against only one defender.

3. Kenneth Walker III vs. New England’s tough run defense

The Seahawks ran the ball 50.0% of their offensive snaps, third to only the Ravens and Bills. In the Super Bowl, they’ll be attempting to move the Patriots off the line of scrimmage, which won’t be easy. 

New England has thrown up a brick wall against the run this year, ranking tied for ninth in EPA per rush against (-0.07), 10th in explosive runs allowed (42) and sixth in rushing yards per game (101.7). Importantly, the Patriots have done this without committing extra defenders to the line, as they check in 24th in stacked box percentage (19.7%). 

Against Walker, the Patriots are facing a 211-pound back with speed. In the regular season, Walker rushed for 1,027 yards on 4.4 yards per carry with five touchdowns, while also catching 31 passes for 278 yards. In the postseason, Walker has seven receptions as well, showing offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak’s willingness to use him in multiple capacities. 

4. Patriots’ heavy rushers vs. Seattle’s guards and center

If New England can generate a pass rush and speed up Sam Darnold, that’s its best chance of pulling an upset. And while K’Lavon Chaisson and Harold Landry III are having nice years off the edge with a combined 16 sacks, the road to Darnold is best traveled up the gut. 

The Patriots spent $104 million this offseason on defensive tackle Milton Williams, bringing him over from the champion Eagles. Williams has paired with Christian Barmore to create a nasty tandem up front, consistently pushing the pocket with 19 QB hits between them. In the postseason, Williams and Barmore have three sacks between them, helping New England’s defense allow just 26 points in the playoffs. 

Facing Seattle, the interior of its offensive line is a weak spot for New England to potentially exploit. While first-round rookie guard Grey Zabel has been solid, fellow guard Anthony Bradford and center Jalen Sundell are vulnerable. Bradford is especially unstable, ranking 72nd of 80 guards on PFF and giving up four sacks and 25 hurries this season.

Patriots defensive ends Milton Williams and Christian Barmore have formed a fearsome pass rush for New England. | Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

Three X-Factors

1. Only three teams scored on both kickoff and punt returns this season. The Jets were one of them. The Patriots and Seahawks were the other two. Including the playoffs, Rashid Shaheed has three such touchdowns, including two on kickoffs. For New England, Marcus Jones has run two punts back to the house, while Antonio Gibson went the distance with a kickoff. 

2. How much will coaching experience matter? Mike Vrabel played in four Super Bowls with the Patriots, winning three of them. His offensive coordinator, Josh McDaniels, has been on the sideline for eight Super Sundays while winning six rings. Their counterparts, Mike Macdonald and Klint Kubiak, have been to only one Super Bowl between them, when Kubiak worked as the passing game coordinator for the 49ers in 2023.

3. Who does a better job in the red zone? New England was 17th inside the 20-yard line this year (57.1%) while Seattle is 21st in that regard (51.2%). However, the Seahawks are terrific defensively in that regard at fifth-best (50.0%). New England is not nearly as tough, allowing touchdowns on 67.5% of opponent’s trips to rank 30th.

Three Key Stats

Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold, 28, will be the first QB from the 2018 NFL draft to start in a Super Bowl. | Kevin Ng-Imagn Images

1. Of all qualifying quarterbacks, Drake Maye and Sam Darnold ranked first and second respectively in passing yards per attempt this season at 8.9 and 8.5.

2. Darnold threw 14 interceptions this season, third-most in football. Since 2015, the only other quarterbacks to finish top three in interceptions and reach the Super Bowl are Matthew Stafford (Rams) and Peyton Manning (Broncos). Both won their games. 

3. If Maye wins the Super Bowl, he’ll become the youngest quarterback to ever raise the Lombardi Trophy, doing so at 23 years old. The only other 23-year-old to win it all was Ben Roethlisberger, doing so in his second year with the Steelers in the 2005 season.

Early prediction

It’s tough to see a path for the Patriots that doesn’t involve some significant self-inflicted errors by the Seahawks.

Seattle has a slew of quality wins this season including over the Rams twice, 49ers twice, Jaguars and Texans. In the playoffs, the Seahawks have scored 72 points in two games. Meanwhile, the Patriots had a single win over an above-.500 team in the regular season (Buffalo in Week 5) before beating a host of offensively-challenged opponents in the playoffs. 

For New England, the Super Bowl will be about pressuring Darnold into mistakes while Drake Maye extends plays with his legs, something he’s done this postseason to the tune of 141 yards and a touchdown. If those things happen, the Patriots will be there late. 

Bottom line: the Seahawks are more talented on both sides of the ball and have been playing like the best team in football over the last few months.

Final: Seahawks 31, Patriots 20

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