Albert Breer on 1st Rd Boom or Bust QBs, Cap Space Breakdown, Veteran QB Market

It did help that they went to the right places .

All right.

Welcome to Spre Report for March 19th.

We are in that space between free agency and the owners' meetings, between free agency and the draft.

So I thought we'd hit three big picture topics today that have been of interest just based on the social media reaction that I've gotten to a couple of them.

And so the first one for today.

It would be an interesting figure that I was able to come up with just researching after Kyler Murray went to the Minnesota Vikings last week.

And so, Murray, of course, was drafted in the 2010s.

He was in the final year of the 2010s, so 2019, he was the first overall pick.

So I thought I'd look at first-round quarterbacks in that decade and how many remain with the teams that drafted them.

Now, over the course of those 10 draft cycles from 2010 to 2019, 29 quarterbacks went in the first round.

That's just under 3 per year.

So it's a lot of quarterbacks coming into the league, nearly 1 per team, if you took it, look at the whole decade.

And of that group, only 3 remain with the team that drafted them.

One's Patrick Mahomes, another's Josh Allen, another's Lamar Jackson.

Not a coincidence, all 3 of those guys have been league MVP.

All 3 of those guys have advanced to the conference championship round of the playoffs.

All 3 of those guys will probably be their team's quarterbacks for the foreseeable future.

And then you sort of start to look at the bigger group, and you start to look at, OK, like what's happening here with the quarterbacks who are drafted.

In that space.

And so, in that period of time, Dak Prescott was a 4th-rounder, so you can throw him in as another guy who's with his team, who's been with his team.

He's now actually the longest tenured quarterback in the NFL, believe it or not.

He will be going into his 11th year as the Cowboys' quarterback.

He was a 4th-rounder, so he didn't qualify for my list.

And so that's 4 guys that are homegrown talents drafted in that period of 10 years that remain with their teams going into 2026.

There are 7 other guys that are either slated to be starters, maybe likely to be their team starters that were drafted in that period.

They either are reclamation projects or bumped around the league some.

I'll take you through those.

Sam Darnold in Seattle, obviously just won a Super Bowl.

Baker Mayfield wound up being the replacement for Tom Brady in um in, in, in Tampa.

Daniel Jones, the, now the quarterback of the Indianapolis Colts coming off an Achilles injury.

Kyler Murray, of course, we mentioned him now going to the Minnesota Vikings, Jared Goff.

Um, in Detroit, Deshaun Watson in Cleveland, potentially the quarterback there, the starter in 2026, and then Geno Smith in, um, in, in back with the Jets.

And so you look at that list, and I think one thing that was interesting is four of those seven guys have been with more than two teams.

Sam Darnold went from the Jets to the Panthers, the Panthers to the 49ers, the 49ers to the Vikings, and the Vikings to The Seahawks now.

Baker Mayfield went from the Browns to the Panthers, the Panthers to the Rams, the Rams to the Buccaneers.

So he's been on 4 teams.

Daniel Jones went from the Giants to the Vikings, uh, and then the Vikings to the Colts .

And then you have Geno Smith, who of course went from the Jets.

To the Giants, the Giants, to the Chargers, I can't remember if it was one or the other.

Then he went to the Seahawks, played on a series of one-year deals with the Seahawks, and now he's on the Jets.

Uh, there are a couple of outliers too here and guys that were, um, that were, that were from the previous decade, Matthew Stafford, potentially Aaron Rodgers as starters for their teams, of course, they're not with the teams that drafted them anymore either.

And then you got Gardner-Minho, um, potentially the starter with the Cardinals also drafted in that decade.

I think whether it's Gardner-Minho, maybe they wind up signing Jimmy Garoppolo or Jacoby Brissett, the likelihood is they'll have a starter from that decade as well, um, who obviously has bounced around some.

I, I think the number one takeaway I have on this is how important again, the environment is for a quarterback.

And if you look at the 3 guys who qualify here, right, the 3 guys who have been with their teams the whole time, um, and that's Mahomes, Allen, and Lamar.

I don't think it's a coincidence that all 3 of those guys were drafted on the teams that made the playoffs but the year before they got there.

In other words, they went to organizations who had their, you know what together.

Patrick Mahomes um went to the Chiefs.

The Chiefs had been a perennial playoff team under Andy Reid with Alex Smith as the quarterback.

They had to trade up to get Patrick Mahomes.

Josh Allen, um, came in after Sean McDermott's first year in Buffalo.

They had just made the playoffs for the first time in a generation, and they had to trade up to get Josh Allen.

And then Lamar Jackson happened to slip to the thirty-second overall pick where the Ravens were able to scoop them up.

The Ravens, of course, have been successful for a long, long time.

And so, that's not to say Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson wouldn't have made it anyway.

Those guys are generational talents.

But it did help that they went to the right places.

And then I give you the example of Stafford, and look how Stafford came alive when he went to the Rams after surviving so many different regimes in Detroit.

And he didn't really see who Matthew Stafford could become until he wound up going to a better organization.

So I think the main thing to take from all this, when I look at all these names in this list, it's just how important environment is to a quarterback's development.

And so, let's spin that forward.

One quarterback likely to go in the first round this year, that may be it.

Maybe Ty Simpson goes later in the round, we'll see.

But Fernando Mendoza's ability to succeed with the Raiders is going to be dependent largely on what they put around him and the environment he walks into.

And even his college career would be proof of that.

I, I don't know that anybody was looking at him as a first-round pick when he was at Cal.

Then he goes to Indiana and all of a sudden he's throwing to Elijah Sarratt, to Omar Cooper, who might be a first-round pick, to Charlie Becker, who I think is going to be a pro down the line, and we're talking about a different player.

And so, again, I think Fernando Mendoza is a really good quarterback prospect, but when you look at all of this history, It's gonna be on John Spytek and Clint Kubiak to create a good enough environment, not only so they survive, so the kid has some stability, but so they have a chance to put enough around him, um, and to draft for a single scheme and to add talent around what they already have there, which is a decent base of Colton Miller at left tackle and Brock Bowers at tight end.

And, and Ashton Genty at running back, it's gonna be on them to build the right environment around him, so he can thrive.

And clearly, you look at the other, the three guys before this, you'd say, Mendoza is gonna have to, you know, be part of, of building it up the same way Joe Burrow was in Cincinnati.

It's a little bit different than where, where Mahomes went, Allen went, Lamar went, where something was already established.

So anyway, it's an interesting topic.

I thought we'd dive into.

Credit to our producer, uh, Ken Brown for getting me on this.

Uh, and I think it's gonna be one that's gonna be interesting looking forward to with Fernando Mendoza and then, of course, all the kids that are gonna be in the draft next year.

All right .

Second topic, uh, now that we're in a week, now that we're a week into free agency, I dug into some of the numbers and look, like some of these, these, these, these, these cap figures are based on contracts that are existing and some of the contracts haven't been filed yet, but when you look at the teams that have the least space, some of the teams that have the most space, I think it kind of tells you where these teams are at.

Um, as it stands right now , there are 7 teams with less than $10 million in cap space, and this can color a little bit of the inactivity for some of these teams.

The Bears, the Panthers, the Giants, the Jaguars, the Vikings, the Dolphins, and the Bills.

Now, the Giants were very active.

We can see they spent nearly to the cap.

The Jaguars to some degree kept their powder dry.

A big piece of that was playing the comp pick formula and letting Devin Lloyd and Travis Sechin go.

Um, so they'll get the comp picks, they're tighter to the cap.

They were more active in free agency.

Last year, of course, the Buffalo Bills, um, are sitting there with less than $10 million in space, and it's been well-documented how they've had to move some things around, but they did take Um, a lot of dead money, um, onto their cap over the last couple of years, so they would have a little bit more freedom.

On the flip side of the ledger, you have teams that still have a lot of cap space.

And again, these numbers can be a little funky, but you have, um, teams with more than $40 million in cap space.

The Niners, that's a moving target for sure in the way that they've restructured some guys.

So some of that money they will be carrying over into 2020, um, 2027.

The Cardinals, um, right where you'd expect them to be a team that doesn't have a ton of veteran talent on the roster.

They don't have a ton of guys on their own roster to pay.

Um, so that's where you'd expect them to be.

The commanders are in that group as well.

Again, some of that money has been the result of restructure, some of those deals, maybe haven't been filed yet, something that Kind of watch over the next couple of days.

Then you have the Chargers, which surprised me a little bit, but again, I think that's going to level off over the course of the next week or so.

And then the Titans who I put in the category of the Cardinals.

So again, these numbers are all movable.

Um, I think the Bears are an interesting one because they have traditionally been a team that tries to spend to the cap, um, but doesn't go cash over cap.

And this is something that fans should understand as well.

Um, you know, the Eagles have kind of put themselves in a position where they don't have very many guys left to restructure at all, and they've got big money, um, pushed down the road where eventually they're going to have to account for all of that.

That is, of course, something to keep an eye on going forward.

It's also a credit to their ownership for being willing.

To spend over the cap in cash.

That's something not all owners are willing to do, and Jeffrey Lourie has shown a willingness to do that, which is a big part of why.

They've had rosters that looked the way those rosters have looked the last couple of years.

So, just an interesting little cap update.

Some surprises in there, at least from my standpoint on where some of these teams stood from a cap standpoint.

Finally, our third topic, um, the big quarterback, uh, big quarterback names that are still out there, and there aren't very many seats left for starters.

I think if you're looking at potential starting jobs, the Steelers are one, we'll get to that one in a second.

The Cardinals potentially could be another again with Brissett.

And Minho in that quarterback room.

Then Vegas, you know, I think at some point they bring in a veteran who could be a placeholder in case Mendoza is not quite ready yet, or the roster is not ready around him to support him when we get to week one.

So, some of the names to watch, Aaron Rodgers, of course, we'll get to that in a second.

Kirk Cousins, Joe Flacco, Russell Wilson, Tyrod Taylor.

Um, Justin Fields signed or was traded this week to the, to the, the Kansas City Chiefs.

I really like that.

I think there are some parallels in Fields going to Kansas City, um, to 3 years ago when Sam Darnold went to San Francisco.

Um, Darnold going to San Francisco, I think slowed things down for him and got him to a place where he can start to see the game faster and play faster and play on better rhythm, and I think you saw that when he got to a Christmas night game against the Ravens in 2023 and really set the stage for him to come alive in Minnesota in 2024.

The hope would be that Justin Fields playing for Andy Reid in Kansas City can make that sort of progress.

And one of the, one of the real upsides of being in Kansas City is that he is going to get starter reps until Patrick Mahomes is cleared to return to practice.

So that's gonna be a lot of time on task and a lot of attention from Andy Reid and that coaching staff.

Through the spring and probably into a little bit of the summer.

Then you have Carson Wentz, who signs with Minnesota.

I couldn't believe when I looked it up today.

I knew he was getting older, but 34 years old, uh, was eye-opening to me.

I think he's moved into a, a stage of his career where he's more just a pure backup.

And again, now you have these other guys that are out there.

So the Pittsburgh situation is interesting.

Everything, every move they've made this offseason has screamed, we are still in it with our core.

I thought last year was the last swing with that core, not the case.

They hired Mike McCarthy, which tells you ownership does not want to go through a hard reset.

And they went out and they traded for Michael Pittman Jr.

who is on the edge of being 30 years old, signed Jamel Dean to play corner for them, signed Rico Dowdell, who's going into his 7th year as a running back.

They still have TJ Watt, they still have Jalen Ramsey, they still have Cam Hayward.

So this is a situation that's set up for a veteran quarterback.

I still think it's gonna be Aaron Rodgers.

If it's not, I can see that being where Kirk Cousins goes.

As Kirk Cousins looks at it, I think he sees three options.

Either I go somewhere and start, and that would be either Vegas, Arizona, or Pittsburgh.

I go somewhere where I have a chance to win as a backup, and we'll see what that, where that would be, or he sits and waits and sees if there's some sort of injury in the spring or summer.

Joe Flacco, another name out there, you know, another guy who I think.

You know, like, I like, could I see him going back to Cincinnati?

Certainly, I think he had a good experience there.

Um, I think there'll be opportunity for Joe Flacco to go somewhere.

Russell Wilson, he might be one who waits and sees what the landscape looks like out there, and then, um, Tyrod Taylor is another name to watch as a veteran backup, but just sort of interesting the way all of this goes.

I think one.

Landing spot that's sort of interesting, at least to me, would be Indianapolis for someone.

I think what Tuatunga below is gonna have in Atlanta, what Justin Fields is gonna have in Kansas City, which again is that opportunity to get first-team reps to the spring and summer, develop as a quarterback, um, with good offensive coaching, which all three of those places have.

And then build chemistry with teammates.

So if you have to play in the fall, you'll have that built-in maybe at a level you wouldn't if you were just a backup for the spring and summer.

I think all of that's there for somebody in Indianapolis.

So Indianapolis would be an interesting situation for somebody as well.

Again, you have that potential to be a placeholder in Las Vegas, Arizona, still, you know, maybe that's Jimmy Garoppolo, who's another name to consider.

Um, I think the uh, the, the, the, the, the likelihood is Garoppolo winds up back with the Rams, but maybe Garoppolo reconsiders there.

And then, of course, the Steelers situation which I think it'll be Aaron Rodgers.

Appreciate you guys coming out.

Appreciate you guys having stuck with us through the last two weeks, um, through all of free agency.

Next week, we get a little closer to the owners' meetings.

We'll be looking at rules changes and that sort of stuff, and we'll be getting closer to being in full draft mode.

Can't wait for all of that.

As always, you can leave your feedback down below on the YouTube page or you can get to me on my social media at Albert Breer on Twitter at Albert Arbreer on Facebook, at Albert_Breer on Instagram.

Appreciate you guys coming out.

Have a great weekend.

We'll see you next week.