Albert Breer on if Pats Can Land A.J. Brown, Ty Simpson QB1?, Lions Draft QB Early?

All right.

Welcome in.

It is the Breer Report for Thursday, March 26th.

We got a mailbag edition coming for you today.

As always, you can get more answers to more of your questions, more detailed answers online at the MMQB.

com.

The mailbag is live online.

The print mailbag is live online right now.

But as always, we're gonna get to three of your questions right here, right now.

And the first of those questions is coming from Steve Mack.

That's at Steve Mike Mack.

If the Eagles want to wait until after June 1st for cap reasons, could New England pick the Eagles' preferred target, hold on to him for a month, and then execute the trade for AJ Brown in June to satisfy both the draft capital and salary cap requirements.

Steve, that sounds good on paper , and I understand the idea that this happens in the NBA a lot.

I just think it's highly unlikely that this would happen in the NFL.

Um, and the main reason why is because logistically, so much can happen in that period of time between now and June 1st.

And let's just start with the player that they take.

Like, let's say the thirty-first overall pick is part of that trade.

You're asking that player now to miss the rookie onboarding process that happens in a couple of weeks before the, after the draft.

You're asking him to not participate in rookie minicamp and then miss the 1st 2 or 3 weeks of OTAs as he's waiting to be officially dealt.

And that's gonna affect his ability to compete at the end of OTAs, which ostensibly is gonna affect the reps that he gets in training camp, which is what gives him an opportunity to actually play in the fall.

So you're adversely affecting the guy that you're training for his ability.

To compete as a rookie, to contribute as a rookie.

So, it wouldn't make sense for that individual player.

I don't know if there'd be any sort of grievance process for that, but obviously, it could have a huge impact on that player's rookie year, which could have an impact, um, a lasting impact on that player's career.

So that's number one.

Number 2, we don't know what's gonna happen on draft day.

And so, the idea of trading the 31st pick now or agreeing to trade the 31st pick now, what if the Eagles don't like what's there at 31 now, do they pull the plug?

What happens if the Patriots suddenly like the receiver that's there at 31, right?

Or somebody that they didn't think was gonna fall to him falls on at 31, so now they're less apt to move the 31st overall pick .

Like that becomes an issue.

And so I just think there are too many moving parts and I, I think one thing that, that is instructive here, OK, is when we're looking at the big picture of a potential Eagles Patriots traders that Mike Vrabel has been here before.

And you go back to 2021, the Atlanta Falcons had a massive cap problem that Arthur Smith and Terry Fontneau, the new coach and GM at the time were inheriting.

And so it made the most sense for them to move Julio Jones after June 1st to spread the cap damage up over 21 and 22 .

So they waited to move him, they moved him after June 1st, they moved him to who?

They moved him to the Houston Texans.

And that deal, when it was done, was entirely made up of draft picks in 22 and 23.

So, again, Mike Vrabel has been down this road before.

I still think the Patriots are the most likely suitor.

I actually think the Eagles might prefer picks further down the line.

They might prefer a 2027 pick to a 26 pick anyway.

Um, and I, I still think that there's a good chance that this happens.

Now, just to give everybody the landscape and we can go over this one more time.

Um, you know, the AJ Brown thing has been simmering for a few months.

There's been communication between AJ Brown's side and the Eagles side.

AJ Brown's side has communicated the teams that they would like to go to.

The 4 AFC teams that were in this, in this, in this category were at Buffalo, the Chargers, the Chiefs, and the Patriots.

Buffalo bowed out almost immediately, um, because they were trading for DJ Moore.

The Chiefs didn't have an interest, the Chargers didn't have an interest , so that left you with the Patriots.

The Rams come in then, and the Rams are part of the, the conversation.

They go down the road, the Rams back out.

So now you're sitting there with the Patriots as the suitor.

Um, and for the Eagles now, they're negotiating with the Patriots, and they don't have somebody else to drive the market.

The Patriots know that.

I think they're negotiating against themselves.

So, I, I don't know that there's anything pushing a deal between now and the draft.

Once we get past the draft, it's possible there's a new suitor that comes in, maybe somebody gets banged up in OTAs, maybe some team doesn't like the way the receiver board fell to them in the draft, and so that could move some things.

And so, um, a ton of moving pieces here.

I think still a player who is of the mindset that he's gonna be playing somewhere else next year doesn't mean that can't change, but we, with the, the, the issue with the quarterbacks well documented, and we'll see where that goes , but I, I think it's logistically very, very difficult.

To create a scenario where you agree to a trade now and then actually pull the trigger on it on June 1st.

Um, so, uh, you know, anything can happen and, and we'll see.

Maybe, maybe something does happen and maybe agree, a trade is agreed to, um, ahead of time.

It's just hard to see logistically that Working for everybody in the here and the now.

And so, I, I, I, I, I would say there's still, you know, again, a good chance that AJ Brown winds up being, um, becoming a Patriot, but um I don't think it's a sure thing at this point.

Question number 2 is from Jake is at sourdough Spam.

Uh, Jake's question is, how high does Ty Simpson go?

Thoughts on the idea that a good amount of GMs have him above Mendoza.

I really respect Dan Orlovsky, um, I've done work with him in the past, like him.

I mean, he does a great job.

He knows more about quarterbacking than I'll ever know.

Um, I haven't gotten the sense that, that, that, that very many teams have Simpson over Mendoza.

Now, that could wind up being the case, like I, again, I've got dozens of phone calls to make in the next few weeks, so I'm not there yet, as far as knowing where everybody.

sands on every, on every position.

But I, I would tell you right now, I still think that there's a, a pretty good majority that look at Mendoza as the only first-round quarterback in this year's draft.

I, I don't think he's seen at the level of the three guys from 2 years ago, Caleb Williams, Jaden Daniels, and Drake May.

I think he's probably seen in a similar light, very different players, but seen in a similar light to Cam Ward a year ago.

So, I still think Mendoza will be the consensus number one, if you talk to most NFL people.

I think there are a fair amount of NFL people who look at it as Mendoza and then a drop off to the point where he may be the only potential long-term starting quarterback in this year's draft, and I do think ultimately Mendoza will be the first overall pick.

And become a Las Vegas Raider.

Question number 3, this is from C, that's at.

Tay Dill, 33.

Any chance the Lions get Drew Allen in the 2nd and sit him for two years behind Goff?

I would say no, um, for a couple of different reasons.

On the Lions' end of this, they only have two picks in the top 100.

They traded both their 3rd round picks, they're slotted 3rd, and then the 3rd they were gonna get is a comp pick for Aaron Glenn.

To, uh, away last year and a move up to go get Isaac Tesla.

Um, and so they only have their first-round pick and their 2nd-round pick.

So with two picks in the top 100 and some real needs in the roster, I think it makes more sense for them.

To, to spend those picks on the immediate needs.

And look, they're gonna need younger talent on the roster just from a cap perspective.

You look at the guys they've already spent on, Pene Sewell, Aman Rossa Brown, Jamison Williams, Jared Goff, Aiden Hutchinson , um, and then, you know, ED McNeil, and then you go down the line and you look at like some of the guys who are now eligible for contracts, Brian Branch, Sam LaPorta, Jack Campbell, um, Jamir Gibbs is gonna be an expensive piece to keep.

And so, when you, when you, you look at like the way this is all set up and, and you see a need, say, on the offensive line or a need for an edge rusher opposite Aiden Hutchinson, those sorts of needs are going to need to be filled through the draft.

So I'm always for putting a developmental quarterback in the pipeline.

But I just can't see them spending a top 100 pick on it.

Now, would they spend a pick on a quarterback on day 3?

They've got 2 4ths, they've got 2 5ths, they've got 26th.

I could certainly see that, but it's hard for me to see it happening in the top 100.

And by the way, I, I don't think Drew Aller goes that high.

I think the ceiling.

Drew Aller would probably be the 3rd round right now.

Got great physical tools, by all accounts, he's a really good kid, but his tape isn't great.

And so you're projecting a lot with him.

I wouldn't mind the idea if I'm the Lions of spending a 4th or 5th-round pick on him with the idea that you develop and behind Jared Goff, who you're still deeply invested in.

I just don't see it happening in the 1st or 2nd round.

Appreciate you guys coming out.

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Appreciate you guys coming out.

We got one more Breer report coming for you this week.

That'll be tomorrow.

We'll see you guys then.