Inside The Vikings

Sam Darnold ranks incredibly high in 'adjusted quarterback efficiency' metric

Darnold has been one of the best QBs in the NFL this season.

Will Ragatz

Dec 16, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold (14) passes the ball against the Chicago Bears in the fourth quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium.
Dec 16, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold (14) passes the ball against the Chicago Bears in the fourth quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. / Brad Rempel-Imagn Images
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Sam Darnold ranks 11th among quarterback in expected points added (EPA) per play this season. But that might not tell the whole story of how good he's been. A metric called "adjusted quarterback efficiency" from analyst Kevin Cole, which attempts to include a variety of other factors, has Darnold as the fourth-best QB in the NFL in 2024, trailing only Josh Allen, Jordan Love, and Lamar Jackson.

Cole's AQE makes "adjustments for expected EPA" on luck-influenced things like yards after the catch, drops, interceptions, defensive pass interference penalties, fumbles, strength of schedule, and weather. However it works, Darnold jumps ahead of Jared Goff, Joe Burrow, and Brock Purdy, among others, in this metric.

No matter what traditional statistics or advanced metrics you use, the numbers support the idea that Darnold has been at least a top-ten quarterback this season, if not top-five.

Through 15 weeks, he's sixth in passing yards, fifth in passing touchdowns, fourth in passer rating, and fifth in yards per attempt. Darnold is ninth in adjusted net yards per attempt, which dings him a bit for sacks and interceptions. He's sixth in success rate and third in completion percentage over expected. He's seventh in PFF grade and fourth in big-time throw percentage.

Outside of raw EPA per play, it's difficult to find metrics where Darnold is outside of the top ten. Even though he's had some issues at times with sacks and picks (which aren't always a quarterback's fault), that's going to happen when you're pushing the ball downfield as much as he has. Darnold ranks fourth in the league in average depth of target, which makes his efficiency numbers even more impressive.

He isn't coming off his sharpest game on Monday night against the Bears, but it's hard to understand how well Darnold has played this season. He's been poised, accurate, and explosive in Kevin O'Connell's offense, and his play is a huge reason why the Vikings are sitting at 12-2.

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Will Ragatz
WILL RAGATZ

Will Ragatz is a senior writer for Vikings On SI. He is a credentialed Minnesota Vikings beat reporter, covering the team extensively at practices, games and throughout the NFL draft and free agency period. Ragatz attended Northwestern University, where he studied at the prestigious Medill School of Journalism. During his time as a student, he covered Northwestern Wildcats football and basketball for SB Nation’s Inside NU, eventually serving as co-editor-in-chief in his junior year. In the fall of 2018, Will interned in Sports Illustrated’s newsroom in New York City, where he wrote articles on Major League Baseball, college football, and college basketball for SI.com.

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