Vikings May Have to Overpay to Trade Up For a Quarterback in this Draft

The move the Vikings made three weeks ago remains a fascinating one, largely because we don't know exactly why they did it. Why pull the trigger on a trade in the middle of March that sent two second-round picks to the Texans for the No. 23 overall pick? It's easy to see why the Texans, who just shipped Minnesota's 2025 second-rounder to the Bills for Stefon Diggs, made the move. It's a bit more difficult to understand why the Vikings felt the need to make that deal more than a month ahead of the draft.

The assumption is that the Vikings made the trade to give themselves more ammo to make a big move up the board for a quarterback. In theory, a team picking in the top five will value the Vikings' two first-round picks (Nos. 11 and 23) more than a traditional package consisting of one current-year first-rounder paired with future picks. The Vikings have said publicly that they valued the flexibility that these two picks give them — and that staying put at 11 and 23 is an option — but would they really have made the deal if they aren't planning on moving into the top five?

Three weeks later, there hasn't been a subsequent trade by the Vikings. Maybe that's not surprising; they could be waiting until draft day to see how the first couple picks unfold. But even armed with two first-round picks, the Vikings are in a bit of a difficult situation. They've seemingly telegraphed their trade-up plans to all of the teams in the top five, who might now have the leverage to make Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and Rob Brzezinski overpay to get a deal done.

In a recent quarterback-only mock draft from ESPN, the Vikings trade 11, 23, and their 2025 first-round pick to move up to the Cardinals' No. 4 pick and take J.J. McCarthy. That feels like a lot to pay to move up seven spots for McCarthy, but Arizona has all of the leverage. They could stay put and take Marvin Harrison Jr., but they could also talk to other teams — like the Giants, Broncos, and Raiders — about potential deals. If the Vikings have McCarthy much higher on their board than Michael Penix Jr., they might have to pay a hefty price to go up to 4 or even the Chargers' pick at 5. If they want to convince the Patriots to trade out of 3, it's probably going to take 11, 23, next year's first, and then even more on top of that.

Ultimately, we can't fully judge the trade with the Texans until we see what the Vikings actually do in the draft. Thankfully, we're just three weeks away from finding out.

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