Explaining the Vikings' Perspective on Their 2025 Comp Pick Situation

Earlier this week, I wrote about how the Vikings' March signing of cornerback Shaq Griffin, which appeared to cost them a compensatory third-round pick in next year's draft, remained a baffling decision. That was based off of publicly-available comp pick tracking information from OverTheCap's Nick Korte, who does an excellent job following that specific thing. The story's angle had nothing to do with Griffin as a player, to be clear — it was all about how the timing of his signing appeared to have needlessly cost the Vikings a top-100 pick in next year's draft. The assumption was that maybe they assumed Dalton Risner was going to sign with a new team before the draft, which didn't end up happening. (I was also far from the only person talking about the situation).

On Wednesday, we learned the Vikings' perspective on the topic, via The Star Tribune's Ben Goessling.

"I'm told the team was always expecting one (and only one) third-round pick next year, from losing Kirk Cousins," Goessling posted on social media. "The Vikings figured Jonathan Greenard's deal would cancel out Danielle Hunter's contract; they never expected two 3rds. As I understand it, the Shaq Griffin signing on March 19 came after the Vikings had already estimated they'd get only one (not two) 3rd-rounders next year. They'd determined he wouldn't cost them a second 3rd, because they never expected to have one in the first place. If Griffin plays enough, it's possible he'd factor into the calculations for a later-round comp pick. But the Vikings' projections had already ruled out the possibility of a second 3rd before they signed Griffin."

That explanation, along with some context provided by Korte, sheds light on the difference between the Vikings' internal expectations and OverTheCap's projections. OTC had Greenard's deal valued as worth a fourth-rounder in the comp pick formula. That meant that before Griffin was signed, they were projecting the Vikings to get very valuable third-round comp picks for both Cousins and Hunter:

When Griffin was signed, one of those third-rounders was cancelled out because the Vikings now had added five compensatory free agents (CFAs) and lost six. Thus, it appeared that his signing may have directly cost the Vikings a third-rounder:

Here's where the discrepancy comes in. The contracts that players sign aren't the only data points in the comp pick formula; playing time and All-Pro honors also factor into the equation. OTC has Greenard projected as a fourth-round value because his projected snap share — which is the average of his snap shares over the last four seasons — is just 35 percent. He's dealt with some injuries in his career and never played more than 55 percent of the Texans' defensive snaps in a season.

The Vikings' internal model must have Greenard projected to be worth a third-round pick, presumably under the assumption that he'll be playing more than ever as a full-time starter for Minnesota in 2024. Korte estimates that he'd have to play at least 70 percent of the Vikings' snaps this season to reach that third-round value. If that ends up happening, he will have cancelled out one of Hunter or Cousins in the formula, meaning the Vikings signing Griffin would've only cost them a sixth or seventh-round comp pick (which has much less value than a third-rounder). This X thread from Korte explains it in more detail:

...by the projections that OTC's program is currently outputting, it has Greenard's contract pretty solidly as a 4th rounder.

And keep in mind that the Bills & 49ers were just recently surprised players whose contracts they thought would be valued in the 3rd ended up in the 4th.
— Nick Korte (@nickkorte) May 8, 2024

In the end, I think there's still a question as to whether or not Greenard's contract will be valued in the 3rd or 4th round, but at this point we might never know for sure.

The Vikings have one 3rd round 2025 comp pick & Griffin on their team, and we can leave it at that.
— Nick Korte (@nickkorte) May 8, 2024

It's all a bit confusing, but hopefully that makes sense. The Vikings were always only expecting one third-round comp pick in next year's draft, so they believe that signing Griffin didn't cost them in that regard. Because playing time and postseason honors are part of the formula, we won't know whether they were right or not until the season plays out. It should also be emphasized again that from an on-field perspective, the Griffin signing made a lot of sense for a Vikings team in need of an experienced, starting-caliber outside cornerback who can play man coverage for Brian Flores this year.

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