Inside The Vikings

Assessing Justin Jefferson's Over/Under Prop Totals in 2023

Can Jefferson continue his incredible feat of increasing his receptions and yards each year?
Will Ragatz|
Assessing Justin Jefferson's Over/Under Prop Totals in 2023
Assessing Justin Jefferson's Over/Under Prop Totals in 2023

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Minnesota Vikings

Statistically, Justin Jefferson is off to the best three-year start to a career by any wide receiver in NFL history. He burst onto the scene with 1,400 yards as a rookie and has managed to improve his numbers in each season since then. What does he have in store for 2023?

Let's take a look at Jefferson's opening over/under lines for receptions, yards, and touchdowns at BetOnline.

Justin Jefferson - Receiving Yards 2023 Regular Season

  • Over/Under 1,400.5

This might seem like a strange line, given that Jefferson has put up 1400, 1616, and 1809 receiving yards in his three NFL seasons. But it isn't actually easy to record a 1,400-yard season; there have been 43 of them in the last ten years for an average of just over four per season.

Sportsbooks also factor the possibility of injury into over/unders. If Jefferson were to miss even a few games with a minor issue, it could make it tough to hit the over.

As it is, Jefferson's total is easily the highest in the league. No one else is even at 1,300.

Justin Jefferson — Receptions 2023 Regular Season

  • Over/Under 107.5

Jefferson has increased his reception total by 20 in each of the last two seasons, going from 88 as a rookie to 108 in 2021 and then a league-high 128 last year. To reach 108 or more receptions requires at least 6.4 catches per game in a full 17-game season. Jefferson had six games with double-digit catches in 2022.

Justin Jefferson — Receiving TDs 2023 Regular Season

  • Over/Under 8.5

The one thing Jefferson hasn't done at a truly elite level in his career is score touchdowns. He has 25 receiving TDs, which is tied for tenth-most since he came into the league in 2020. Davante Adams leads the way in that span with 43, while four other players — including Adam Thielen — have at least 30.

To hit this over, Jefferson has to get at least nine, which would be just over his average of 8.33. Although Thielen is gone, Jefferson is still competing with players like T.J. Hockenson, Alexander Mattison, K.J. Osborn, and Jordan Addison for touchdowns.

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Will Ragatz
WILL RAGATZ

Will Ragatz is a senior writer for Vikings On SI, who also covers the Twins, Timberwolves, Gophers, and other Minnesota teams. He is a credentialed Minnesota Vikings beat reporter, covering the team extensively at practices, games and throughout the NFL draft and free agency period. Ragatz attended Northwestern University, where he studied at the prestigious Medill School of Journalism. During his time as a student, he covered Northwestern Wildcats football and basketball for SB Nation’s Inside NU, eventually serving as co-editor-in-chief in his junior year. In the fall of 2018, Will interned in Sports Illustrated’s newsroom in New York City, where he wrote articles on Major League Baseball, college football, and college basketball for SI.com.

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