Every Vikings Free Agent and Their Odds to Return to Minnesota in 2026

The Vikings' crop of 2026 free agents isn't quite as star-studded as last year's group, which was headlined by Sam Darnold, Byron Murphy Jr., and Camryn Bynum. Still, there are some important decisions for Minnesota's interim front office to make. Once they've freed up the requisite cap space, which free agents will they push to keep? And which ones will they feel comfortable losing?

Let's go through each of the team's pending unrestricted free agents and hand out a speculative percent figure that represents our guess at the likelihood they're back with the Vikings this year. (Here's the version of this article we did last year, if you're curious). This won't include C.J. Ham, who has officially announced his retirement. It also won't include restricted free agents (like Ivan Pace Jr.) or exclusive rights free agents (like Jalen Redmond).

Harrison Smith: 20 percent

This one isn't a question of whether the player will re-sign with the Vikings or join a new team, it's "will he retire or not?" If the 37-year-old Smith plays a 15th season in the NFL, it'll be in the state where he spent the first 14. All signs seem to be pointing toward Smith calling it quits after getting an emotional sendoff in the final game of last season, so maybe this percentage is too high. I just can't quite quit on the idea of the Hitman running it back one last time under Brian Flores and chasing that elusive Super Bowl ring.

Eric Wilson: 70 percent

I anticipate Flores and the Vikings will do everything they can to keep Wilson, who is a perfect fit in their defensive scheme. He had a remarkable 2025 season, becoming the first player in NFL history to record a stat line of 115 tackles, 17 tackles for loss, 6.5 sacks, and 4 forced fumbles. Wilson is due for a significant raise, but one also imagines he'll be interested in continuing to play for Flores.

Jalen Nailor: 30 percent

Nailor has earned a solid payday on a second contract after recording 858 yards and 10 touchdowns over the past two seasons combined. Only 45 players in the NFL have caught at least that many TD passes since 2024. The Vikings would love to keep Nailor, particularly given his connection with J.J. McCarthy, but he may end up pricing himself out of their plans. One path to keeping him could involve trading away Jordan Addison, who continues to deal with off-the-field incidents.

QB Carson Wentz: 5 percent

Wentz filled in admirably for McCarthy last season before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury. However, the Vikings clearly need a better veteran QB to compete with (or outright replace) McCarthy. And if Wentz wants to keep playing, it won't be as QB3 in Minnesota.

P Ryan Wright: 80 percent

Ryan Wright and Will Reichard | Kayla Wolf-Imagn Images

Wright has been somewhat up and down in his four years with the Vikings, but he was good in 2025. He seems to have strong chemistry with Will Reichard and Andrew DePaola, so why not keep that trio together?

LS Andrew DePaola: 80 percent

On a similar note, there's little reason to think DePaola — who has made four straight All-Pro teams — will be snapping the ball anywhere else in 2026 (assuming he wants to keep playing). He is 38, so retirement could be on the table.

RB Ty Chandler: 15 percent

The guess here is that Chandler looks for an opportunity elsewhere after spending his entire rookie contract in Minnesota. The Vikings' backfield will be led by Jordan Mason and either Aaron Jones or another prominent back (if Jones is a cap casualty), and ERFA Zavier Scott has shown he can be a solid No. 3.

CB Jeff Okudah: 25 percent

Okudah only played in six games for the Vikings last year due to injury, after being limited to six games with the Texans in 2024. He's a journeyman who seems likely to join a new team for a fourth straight offseason, although the Vikings could look to keep him around as a low-cost depth option.

CB Fabian Moreau: 35 percent

Moreau is also a journeyman corner, but it's notable that he's spent the last two seasons in Minnesota. Flores and Kevin O'Connell seem to have a solid amount of trust in Moreau as a depth corner who can step in if injuries occur.

WR Rondale Moore: 40 percent

It's hard to know what the future holds for Moore, who tore his ACL in training camp after signing with the Vikings. He hasn't played in a game since 2023, but Moore will be just 26 years old this fall. Maybe the Vikings want to run it back on a minimum deal and see if he stays healthy this time.

OT Justin Skule: 20 percent

The Vikings may want to upgrade their tackle depth, given Christian Darrisaw's difficulty staying on the field in his first season after a 2024 ACL/MCL injury. Skule can play both sides and was competent at times, but they can probably do better. Plus, Blake Brandel and Walter Rouse are under contract and can play tackle.

S Tavierre Thomas: 40 percent

Kevin O'Connell and Tavierre Thomas | Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

Thomas was one of the Vikings' leaders in special teams snaps last season, and teams generally like to keep experienced special teamers. With that said, he did struggle with penalties and coverage lanes in some big moments, even if his overall ST grade was quite strong.

QB Brett Rypien: 20 percent

QB John Wolford: 20 percent

These two can be lumped together. Either one would make for a passable QB3 option with knowledge of the Vikings' offense.

OL Matt Nelson: 15 percent

If you've never heard of Nelson, that would make sense. The former Lions tackle signed with the Vikings late last July and then was placed on season-ending IR less than two weeks later.