How Daniel Jones Could Torpedo the Vikings' Pursuit of Kyler Murray

When Daniel Jones bolted for the Indianapolis Colts despite allegedly receiving a similar offer from the Vikings last offseason, it set the stage for J.J. McCarthy to take over as QB1 in Minnesota. Now, Jones is in the middle of another QB decision that could have a significant impact on the Vikings.

According to multiple reports, Kyler Murray's most likely destination after being released by the Arizona Cardinals is Minnesota. However, the Colts might also be intriguing to the former No. 1 overall pick.

"Soon-to-be free agent quarterback Kyler Murray could choose to be methodical in picking his next destination. Once released around the start of the new league year, he'll want to speak to potential suitors and possibly make a few visits. Minnesota will be an option. The Colts and Falcons have talent and quarterbacks who might not be ready to start the season. That could become a factor for veteran quarterbacks weighing options, too," ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reported on Sunday.

On Monday, NFL Network's Tom Pelissero reported that the Falcons are pushing hard to sign Tua Tagovailoa, who is being released by the Miami Dolphins. If Tagovailoa winds up in Atlanta, the two most logical suitors for Murray are the Vikings and Colts.

This is where Jones becomes a factor. According to Sports Illustrated's Albert Breer, the Colts offered Jones a deal similar to what Sam Darnold received from the Seattle Seahawks last offseason, with Jones' camp pushing for $50 million per season.

"I do think Daniel Jones will stay in Indianapolis, but there’s a big gap that needs to be made up in the coming days," Breer reported. "The Colts’ initial offer to Jones was in the range of Sam Darnold’s three-year, $100.5 million deal last offseason. Jones’s camp countered that, based on the leverage a franchise tag would have given him, a deal worth $50 million per year would be more in the ballpark of what he’d take if he did a deal before this week."

If contract discussions between the Colts and Jones don't progress, there's no reason Indianapolis couldn't pivot to Murray. In fact, one could easily argue that Indianapolis should prefer Murray over Jones because Jones is only four months removed from a torn Achilles.

Fortunately, Jones isn't a free agent like he was last year, which means the Colts — who used the rare transition tag on him — have exclusive negotiating rights and Jones can't be wooed out of town by another team.

That's precisely what happened to Minnesota a year ago. They had exclusive rights to negotiate with Jones before free agency, but they never came to a deal, and Jones wound up leaving for Indy.

Now-former Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah admitted that they "could've executed better" when determining the quarterback room, specifically with Jones.

"I don't want to say overconfidence, but I do think him being here was something that we kind of considered and thought would impact his decision," Adofo-Mensah said when asked if he was overconfident about Jones returning.

"But ultimately, there are free agents, and to your point, learning lessons. I think, execution-wise, you have to treat it as such. No matter what the conversation is or relationships are, free agents are free for a reason, and they're allowed to vet all their options. Ultimately, we could've executed better around that."

Murray has free rein to choose his next team. Is he interested in a true quarterback competition with J.J. McCarthy, or is he going to sign with a team that has a chance to win while also guaranteeing that he'll be the starting quarterback? The Vikings could make that offer, but so too could the Colts, especially if they aren't sure when Jones will be fully recovered from his Achilles injury.

Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles tendon with the Vikings on Oct. 29, 2023. He returned to start the season opener with Atlanta on Sept. 8, 2024, though he didn't look like he had the same strength in his back foot to plant and throw.

If Cousins, who was 36 when he tore his Achilles, didn't look quite right 315 days after suffering the injury, what will Jones, who is 28, look like when he returns? To start the season opener in 2026, Jones would have to be fully healthy in less than 10 months. Jones might not be ready to return until October or November, which is another factor the Colts have to consider.

In the end, there's a non-zero chance that Jones not accepting Indy's Darnold-like offer bites Minnesota in the butt with Murray.