How high or low can the Vikings pick in the 2026 NFL Draft?

It looks like the Vikings will be picking between 10th and 18th in the 2026 NFL Draft.

Dec 14, 2025; Arlington, Texas, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) slaps hands with Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell after a made field goal against the Dallas Cowboys during the second half at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images | Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

Sure, the development of J.J. McCarthy over the final three weeks of the regular season is the most important thing for the Minnesota Vikings, but losing to secure a higher draft pick also wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.

Ideally, McCarthy lights it up in Vikings losses. That way, confidence in McCarthy as QB1 next season grows while the Vikings get the best possible draft pick. One way or another, the 6-8 Vikings are currently slotted to pick 13th in the 2026 NFL Draft, with room to move up or down depending on how the last three games go.

The odds of Minnesota landing a pick higher than No. 10 are pretty low, because the teams currently picking 7-9 are the Saints, Commanders, and Bengals, who are all 4-10. The Vikings beat the Commanders and Bengals, so the only way they moved ahead of one or both is by finishing 6-11 while they win out to finish 7-10. No chance, right?

On the flip side, the Vikings, Dolphins, and Chiefs are tied at 6-8. Right now, the Dolphins have the 11th pick, the Chiefs are at No. 12, and the Vikings are 13th because they have a higher strength of schedule. Slipping down to 14th, 15th, 16th, or even 17th isn't out of the question since the Cowboys (6-7-1), Ravens (7-7), and Panthers/Bucs (7-7) are nearby.

If we assume that Minnesota won't pick higher than 10th, we need to be monitoring games in Week 16 involving Atlanta (5-9, currently 10th in the draft order), Miami, Kansas City, Dallas, Baltimore, Carolina, and Tampa Bay.

Week 16 games that matter to Minnesota's draft positioning:

• Cowboys vs. Chargers, 12 p.m. Sunday
• Chiefs at Titans, 12 p.m. Sunday
• Vikings at Giants, 12 p.m. Sunday
• Panthers vs. Bucs, 12 p.m. Sunday
• Dolphins vs. Bengals, 12 p.m. Sunday
• Falcons at Cardinals, 3:05 p.m. Sunday
• Ravens vs. Patriots, 7:20 p.m. Sunday

Ideally, the Vikings fall to 6-9 while the Cowboys, Chiefs, Falcons, Dolphins, and Ravens all win. The outcome of the Panthers-Bucs game doesn't really matter since both are 7-7 and currently have the same strength of schedule rating (.517).

If it all goes right, the teams picking 10th through 16th would be the Vikings (6-9) at No. 10, followed by the Falcons (6-9) at No. 11, the Dolphins (7-8) and the Chiefs (7-8) at Nos. 12 and 13, the Cowboys (7-7-1) at No. 14, the Ravens (8-7) at No. 15, and the Panthers or Bucs (one would be 7-8) at No. 16.

If the opposite happens and the Vikings improve to 7-8, Minnesota may drop all the way to 16th in the order. It gets even more slippery at that point, especially if the Colts drop to 8-7 with a loss to the 49ers and the Lions fall to 8-7 by losing at home to the Steelers.

The last thing the Vikings need is a scenario where they have two weeks left and they're in danger of winning their way all the way down to the No. 18 pick, which is the lowest a non-playoff team can go.