How many QBs in the 2026 draft would the Vikings prefer over J.J. McCarthy?

In a world of hypotheticals, one that stands out in 2026 is whether the Minnesota Vikings would be better off with J.J. McCarthy or any of the top quarterbacks who might be entering the upcoming NFL Draft.

McCarthy was one of six quarterbacks selected within the first 12 picks of the 2024 draft. So far, four of the six — Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, and Bo Nix — have led their teams to the playoffs, while McCarthy and Michael Penix Jr. have much more to prove.

The 2026 quarterback class is headlined by Indiana sensation Fernando Mendoza. The 6-foot-5 Heisman winner has guided the No. 1-ranked Hoosiers to a 14-0 record and a spot in the College Football Playoff semifinals after walloping Alabama 38-3 on New Year's Day.

After Mendoza, the only other surefire first-round quarterback is Oregon's Dante Moore, though he has yet to declare for the draft. Another possible first-rounder is Alabama's Ty Simpson, who completed 12 of 16 passes for 67 yards before suffering a cracked rib against Indiana in the Rose Bowl. Simpson, like Moore, hasn't made his NFL decision.

Trinidad Chambliss is also in the spotlight after leading Ole Miss over Georgia in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals, but draft expert Dane Brugler doesn't think he's a first-round talent, instead saying he might've played himself into being a Day 2 pick.

"What Chambliss lacks in size and elite physical traits, he makes up for with playmaking instincts and a competitive toughness that’s coveted at the position," Brugler wrote Friday.

Even if Chambliss boosts his stock into the first round, would the Vikings be better off in 2026 with McCarthy as QB1 or one of the four aforementioned prospects?

Jan 1, 2026; New Orleans, LA, USA; Mississippi Rebels quarterback Trinidad Chambliss (6) scrambles with the ball under pressure from Georgia Bulldogs defensive back Daylen Everette (6) in the fourth quarter during the 2025 Sugar Bowl and quarterfinal game of the College Football Playoff at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

"The idea of the Vikings drafting another quarterback in the first round is an intriguing one that can’t fully be ruled out. After just ten starts — some of which have been promising — they’re probably not going to move on from McCarthy, so the most likely move will be to bring in a veteran for competition this offseason," says Vikings On SI's Will Ragatz.

"Then again, McCarthy’s numbers have been horrific, and his mechanics need substantial work. Considering the importance of the position, it wouldn’t be crazy to take another home run swing at finding a star QB on a rookie deal — especially if a new GM is brought in to replace Kwesi Adofo-Mensah. Fernando Mendoza is going No. 1, but Moore, Simpson, and Chambliss could all potentially be options in the middle of round one. I’m particularly fascinated by Chambliss after his huge game against Georgia in the quarterfinals."

j.j. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings — Dec 21, 2025; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) practices before the game at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images | Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images

As Ragatz says, the most logical path forward for Minnesota is with McCarthy at QB1. He's been boom or bust when he's healthy, though there were enough injuries on the Vikings' offensive line this season to wonder whether it's even fair to judge the 22-year-old.

McCarthy has started nine games and finished eight of them. In the eight that he finished, the Vikings beat the Bears, Lions, Commanders, and Cowboys, while losing to the Falcons, Ravens, Bears, and Packers.

In his wins, he completed 63% of his passes for 699 yards, nine touchdowns, and three interceptions. He also ran for three scores. In his losses, his completion percentage (51.7) was more than 11 points lower, and he threw for two touchdowns and a whopping eight interceptions. He also had zero rushing touchdowns in the losses.

McCarthy also flashed fourth-quarter heroics in wins over the Bears and Lions. Deciding which version of McCarthy is going to be the most consistent going forward is a question that could make or break the Vikings.

In the real world, Mendoza is almost certainly going to be the No. 1 overall pick by the Raiders, while Moore ends up going in the top five to the Giants, Jets, or Cardinals. You could make the case that Mendoza or Moore are better long-term prospects than McCarthy, but you probably can't say the same for Simpson, Chambliss, or any other QB in the 2026 draft.

That's important because Minnesota doesn't have a top-five pick. They will be picking between Nos. 13-18, which is where the likes of Simpson and perhaps Chambliss might be available. So, sure, the Vikings might prefer Mendoza or Moore over McCarthy, but unless they feel the same about Simpson, Chambliss, or someone else who isn't yet getting first-round draft buzz, it doesn't matter.

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