Previewing Vikings-Packers with expert picks and keys to victory

If the Vikings are going to keep their slim postseason hopes alive this week, they'll have to pull off an upset not unlike the one they sprung on the Lions a few weeks ago in Detroit. As they prepare to head to Green Bay this week as 6.5-point underdogs against the Packers, the Vikings have to hope J.J. McCarthy — who is 2-0 on the road and 0-3 at home in his young NFL career — can find a way to complete a road sweep of the NFC North.

The experts in the national media aren't expecting the Vikings to go into Lambeau Field and win. Out of 20 analysts between NFL Media and ESPN, not a single one is picking Minnesota this week. Then again, they didn't expect the Vikings to go to Detroit and win back in Week 9.

Vikings-Packers Week 12 picks | NFL Youtube

The Vikings have won in Green Bay in back-to-back years coming into this game. They haven't won three straight games at Lambeau since 1991-93.

What to know about the Packers

Early this season, Green Bay looked like a Tier 1 Super Bowl contender. The Packers beat the Lions by two touchdowns to begin the season, making a strong early statement within the division. They stumbled later in September with a loss to the Browns and a tie against the Cowboys, but they were still 5-1-1 and leading the NFC North when November began. Since then, they've been fairly shaky.

A few weeks back, the Packers lost at home to the Panthers as 13-point favorites. Statistically, it's the most surprising upset of the season thus far. The second-biggest spread to result in an outright loss this year is 9.5, shared by the Lions (against Minnesota) and the Bills (against Miami). The Packers then lost 10-7 to the Eagles at Lambeau the following week, and they trailed late in the fourth quarter against Jameis Winston and the Giants before emerging with a seven-point win last week.

Christian Watson catches a pass against the Eagles. | Tork Mason/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Packers have excellent season-long statistics on offense, but they've been a bit of a mess in that area in recent weeks, with injuries playing a role. Tight end Tucker Kraft, who was emerging as a star, is out for the year. Wide receiver Jayden Reed has missed almost all of the season. Center Elgton Jenkins landed on IR, which forced the Packers to move guard Sean Rhyan there. Star running back Josh Jacobs may or may not play this week due to a minor knee injury.

Jordan Love has played quite well this season, but the offensive line is mediocre and the skill position group would look substantially weaker if Jacobs is out. Love's primary weapons this week could be Christian Watson (who caught two touchdown passes against the Giants), Romeo Doubs, Emanuel Wilson, and Luke Musgrave.

Defensively, Green Bay is pretty loaded, which makes this a daunting task for McCarthy amid his extensive struggles. Everything revolves around Micah Parsons, who the Packers somehow managed to acquire from the Cowboys in late August. He's got eight sacks in ten games and ranks second in the NFL with 56 pressures, trailing only Aidan Hutchinson. The Vikings will need to know where No. 1 is at all times. The Packers have Rashan Gary on the other side, and they have big-time players at the second and third levels in Edgerrin Cooper, Xavier McKinney, Keisean Nixon, and Evan Williams. It's a group that will pose major issues for a young quarterback still trying to iron out his basic mechanics.

Five keys to a Vikings upset

Run the ball effectively with Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason
Get competent, non-disastrous play out of McCarthy
Don't let Parsons single-handedly beat you
Put pressure on Love and force at least one turnover
Gain value in the margins (penalties, special teams, coaching decisions)

What to know about the Packers

Five keys to a Vikings upset

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