Vikings' playoff odds sit under 1%, but here's the miracle path still on the table

Hey, it could happen. It probably won't, but dreamers dream...

Dec 7, 2025; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) takes the snap against the Washington Commanders during the first half at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-Imagn Images | Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

Playoffs? What sort of nut even uses that word in relation to the 2025 Vikings? As insane as it is, it ain't over until you know who sings.

Do you think Case Keenum and Stefon Diggs were aware of Minnesota's 4% win probability with 10 seconds left, no timeouts, and 61 yards from the end zone when they stunned the Saints in the 2018 playoffs with the Minneapolis Miracle?

Do you think the Minnesota Gophers women's basketball team thought they were going to blow a five-point lead with 19 seconds left in the first overtime, and blow a nine-point lead with 44 seconds left in double overtime against No. 7 Maryland on Sunday? The Terrapins had a 0.1% win probability at that point, but they overcame the odds and won (the most Minnesota sports thing ever).

So, about that "less than 1% chance" the Vikings have to make the playoffs? It would be the miracle of all miracles, but that lady isn't singing. Not yet, anyway.

How the Vikings can actually make the playoffs.

For starters, the Vikings have to win out and finish 9-8. Then they need a LOT of help. Take a look at the current NFC playoff race.

1. Los Angeles Rams (10-3)
2. Green Bay Packers (9-3-1)
3. Philadelphia Eagles (8-4)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6)
5. Seattle Seahawks (10-3)
6. San Francisco 49ers (9-4)
7. Chicago Bears (9-4)
8. Detroit Lions (8-5)
9. Carolina Panthers (7-6)
10. Dallas Cowboys (6-6-1)
11. Minnesota Vikings (5-8)

Let's get down to business by looking at Minnesota's week-by-week needs, followed by a more obvious list of ingredients necessary to bake up a playoff miracle.

Here's the help the Vikings need in Week 15, and how their chance to make the playoffs rises with each ingredient, according to The Athletic's Playoff Predictor. All of these are coupled with Vikings wins.

• Browns beat Bears — 2% chance Vikings make the playoffs
• Rams beat Lions — 3% chance Vikings make the playoffs

Here's the help they need in Week 16:

• Packers beat Bears — 6% chance Vikings make the playoffs
• Steelers beat Lions — 19% chance Vikings make the playoffs

Here's the help they need in Week 17:

• Commanders beat Cowboys — 24% chance Vikings make the playoffs
• Seahawks beat Panthers — 25% chance Vikings make the playoffs
• 49ers beat Bears — 49% chance Vikings make the playoffs

Here's the help they need in Week 18:

• Lions beat Bears — 81% chance Vikings make the playoffs

Here's a wider view of what needs to happen:

• Vikings win out to finish 9-8
• Bears lose out to finish 9-8
• Lions finish 9-8, with their only remaining win coming against the Bears
• Cowboys lose at least two more games, including to the Vikings
• South runner-up (Panthers or Bucs) finish 9-8 or worse

If the 7th seed is up for grabs between the Vikings, Lions, and Bears, the tiebreaker would be decided by the best record in head-to-head games. Minnesota would be 2-2, the Lions would be 1-3, and the Bears would be 2-2.

That would eliminate the Lions and bring the tiebreaker to the better division record between the Vikings and Bears. Hello, playoffs! The Vikings would be 4-2 in the North, while the Bears would 1-5 in divisional games.

If the Panthers or Bucs are involved in the tiebreaker, the tiebreaker gets more confusing. That's a bridge we'll be willing to navigate when (OK, if) we get there. For now, dreaming up a miracle where the Vikings, Lions, and Bears all finish 9-8 — in the very specific fashion we discussed above — could turn that less than 1% chance to make the playoffs into another miracle in Minnesota.