Vikings risk playing themselves out of a more favorable slate in 2026

With their 16-13 win over the Giants on Sunday, the Vikings extended their win streak to three games. The late-season charge has seemingly saved a season that looked lost. However, it has also put a potentially much easier schedule in 2026 on the brink.

Hours after the Vikings narrowly squeaked out their ugly win over the Giants, the Lions were losing in crazy fashion at home to the Steelers. The loss by Detroit dropped the Lions to 8-7 on the season, just one game ahead of the Vikings, whom they play on Thursday at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Vikings have already beaten the Lions once this season and could conceivably do it again with Detroit struggling in recent weeks.

The Lions have lost four of their last six games. Detroit will pin its hopes on a late-season turnaround on the fact that those four losses were against teams currently in the playoffs. However, when looking deeper, Detroit has allowed the fourth-most points in the league in that span, while allowing the most yards in that span. The Lions' offense is still humming, ranking top five in both points scored and yards gained in that frame, so it won't necessarily be a stroll on Christmas for the Vikings.

However, if the Vikings pull off the upset on Thursday, they would draw even with the Lions at 8-8 but jump them in the standings to third in the division. That would be disastrous for the possibility of a significantly easier schedule in 2026.

Minnesota's schedule for next season is mostly set, with home and away dates against its NFC North foes as well as games against teams from the NFC South and AFC East. The only thing left to be decided is the three extra games that are decided based on where a team finishes in their division. The Vikings will host teams from the NFC East and AFC South who finish in the same place in their division as Minnesota. They will travel to the NFC West team that finishes the same as them.

The difference between the teams that occupy the third- and fourth-place spots in those divisions is wildly different and could signal either a very difficult 2026 schedule or a much easier campaign. Here are the respective third- and fourth-place teams in each of the three divisions mentioned above:

Division	Third place team (record)	Fourth place team (record)
NFC East	Washington (4-11)	New York Giants (2-13)
AFC South	Indianapolis (8-6)	Tennessee (3-12)
NFC West	San Francisco (10-4)	Arizona (3-12)

The difference between hosting the Commanders and Colts and having to travel to the 49ers versus hosting the Giants and Titans and having to travel to take on the Cardinals cannot be overstated.

Washington, with a healthier Jayden Daniels, is likely to bounce back in 2026 and be close to the juggernaut they were in 2024. Meanwhile, traveling to San Francisco is always a nightmare for any team. Compare those situations with a Giants team that will still likely be a mess and a Cardinals team with a new QB and in cap hell, that fourth-place schedule of NFC opponents is much more desirable.

The only one where you might argue you would rather have the third-place team is the AFC South, where the Colts will be in a QB mess, while the Titans will probably take a step forward with upwards of $100 million to spend in free agency this spring.

Minnesota's path towards returning to the playoffs next season would be made much easier if it finished fourth place in the North this season. As witnessed by the teams that finished fourth last year, it's not always a cheat code, but it can offer teams a significant boost in fortunes the following season.

Team who finished fourth place in 2024 (their record in 2025)

AFC East - New England Patriots (12-3)
AFC North - Cleveland Browns (3-12)
AFC South - Tennessee Titans (3-12)
AFC West - Las Vegas Raiders (2-13)
NFC East - New York Giants (2-13)
NFC North - Chicago Bears (11-4)
NFC South - New Orleans Saints (5-10)
NFC West - San Francisco 49ers (10-4)

The Patriots, Bears, and 49ers are all taking advantage of significantly easier schedules than their division foes this season. New England and Chicago both lead their divisions, and the 49ers would need to win out and get some help in order to claim the West, but they are still within striking distance.

Minnesota fell short of expectations this season. If they can put together a good offseason, they could be in prime position to take advantage of a fourth-place schedule. In order to do that, though, they can't finish above Detroit in the NFC North. They could assure themselves of that with a home loss on Christmas Day.

Team who finished fourth place in 2024 (their record in 2025)

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