Inside The Vikings

What could a Vikings all-in trade offer for Joe Burrow look like?

Let's imagine a world where Burrow asks for a trade from Cincinnati and the Vikings make a massive offer.
Dec 16, 2023; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Former Louisiana State University teammates, Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9), left, and Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) great each other after the game at Paycor Stadium.
Dec 16, 2023; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Former Louisiana State University teammates, Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9), left, and Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) great each other after the game at Paycor Stadium. | Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer-Imagn Images

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Don't get your hopes up, Vikings fans, but there might just be a non-zero chance of superstar Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow winding up in Minnesota. It's probably very, very close to zero, but if Luka Doncic can get traded in the NBA, nothing is impossible in professional sports.

Hear us out. Here's the case for why it could theoretically be possible.

The Bengals have no incentive to trade Burrow, who led them to a Super Bowl appearance and has proven to be a top-four quarterback when healthy. Thus, the first step to this idea requires Burrow asking for a trade out of Cincinnati. That brings us to some very interesting comments he made in a press conference on Wednesday, which happened to be his 29th birthday.

"If I want to keep doing this, I have to have fun doing it," Burrow said. "You know, I've been through a lot. And if it's not fun, then what am I doing it for?"

That has to be rather alarming to hear if you're a Bengals fan. Maybe nothing will come from it. But if Burrow, for whatever reason, decides he doesn't want to keep going in Cincinnati, he'd basically have two options. He could go the Andrew Luck route and retire in his prime — or he could ask for a trade.

Let's say, for the sake of the idea, that Burrow requests a trade and basically forces the Bengals' hand by threatening to make things messy if they don't oblige. In that world, Duke Tobin and the Cincy front office would have to pick up the phone and explore their options. And they'd probably be inclined, if the offers were relatively close, to send Burrow to an NFC team.

From the Vikings' perspective, there would be all kinds of incentive to make an all-in offer for one of the best quarterbacks in the league, even while knowing that he's dealt with three major injuries in six NFL seasons. Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and Kevin O'Connell are about to enter year five of their regime still seeking their first playoff win. Adofo-Mensah in particular might be thinking about his job security. No one's writing off J.J. McCarthy yet, but he's struggled so much that the Vikings can't just assume he's going to be their long-term guy at football's most important position.

We've seen what O'Connell's offense can look like with Kirk Cousins or Sam Darnold running the show. Imagine what it might look like with an elite player like Burrow at the helm. Almost regardless of what the Vikings included in a trade for Burrow — as long as they keep Justin Jefferson (Burrow's college teammate) and Christian Darrisaw — they'd instantly be closer to Super Bowl contention than they've been in a long, long time.

The best, most prominent quarterback to be traded this century is probably Matthew Stafford, who went from the Lions to the Rams in March 2021. O'Connell was the offensive coordinator on that Rams team, and they went on to win the Super Bowl — by beating Burrow's Bengals — 11 months later. He's seen firsthand how a star QB can get a franchise over the hump.

Stafford was 33 when he was traded, not 29. He'd been in the league twice as long as Burrow has, but he didn't have Burrow's accolades (which include two top-four MVP finishes). So the minimum starting point for any Burrow trade would be the Stafford haul, which was Jared Goff, two first-round picks, and a third-rounder.

Another recent example of a major QB trade came in 2022, when Russell Wilson was traded to the Broncos for two first-round picks, two-second rounders, and three players. Like Stafford, Wilson was 33 years old at the time.

So what could the Vikings offer? They don't have a Goff-level quarterback, but they do have some talented players at other positions who they could put on the table, in addition to multiple first-round picks. The deal might as well include McCarthy, since he would be relegated to backup duties in Minnesota. He'd give the Bengals a QB on a rookie deal who could compete for the job with a veteran.

Here's our made-up offer:

  • Vikings get: QB Joe Burrow
  • Bengals get: 2026 first-round pick, 2027 first-round pick, 2026 third-round pick, 2027 second-round pick, QB J.J. McCarthy, OLB Dallas Turner

That's obviously a lot. It's two firsts and two Day 2 picks, plus both of the Vikings' selections in the 2024 first round. But we're talking about Joe Burrow here. It would have to be a monumental haul to beat out offers from other teams. And yes, Burrow's injury history makes a deal that like a real risk. His talent also makes it worthwhile.

It should probably be reiterated that this is all extraordinarily unlikely and would only be worth considering if Burrow assured the Vikings that he's not going to retire anytime soon.

The Bengals will do everything they can to try to work things out with Burrow and keep him around for a long time. And even if he were to ask for a trade, the salary cap element of it all would be very tricky. There would be huge amounts of dead cap involved on Cincinnati's side. In our hypothetical scenario, the Vikings would have to figure out a bunch of restructures/cuts/trades to create the space to take on Burrow's contract.

But the odds of it happening aren't zero. And even the remote possibility of something like this is at least fun to dream about.


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Will Ragatz
WILL RAGATZ

Will Ragatz is a senior writer for Vikings On SI, who also covers the Twins, Timberwolves, Gophers, and other Minnesota teams. He is a credentialed Minnesota Vikings beat reporter, covering the team extensively at practices, games and throughout the NFL draft and free agency period. Ragatz attended Northwestern University, where he studied at the prestigious Medill School of Journalism. During his time as a student, he covered Northwestern Wildcats football and basketball for SB Nation’s Inside NU, eventually serving as co-editor-in-chief in his junior year. In the fall of 2018, Will interned in Sports Illustrated’s newsroom in New York City, where he wrote articles on Major League Baseball, college football, and college basketball for SI.com.

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