What should we make of J.J. McCarthy's breakout game vs. Washington?

The numbers were very promising for McCarthy. But what exactly did we learn from this one?

J.J. McCarthy throws a pass against the Commanders in Week 14. | Images Courtesy of the Minnesota Vikings

The numbers make it clear: J.J. McCarthy played the best game of his young NFL career in Sunday's 31-0 win over the Commanders. His seventh start featured his first game with three passing touchdowns, his first interception-free day, and his first home victory. His completion percentage, passer rating, and EPA per play were all new personal highs as well.

But what exactly should we make of McCarthy's strong performance? Was it a sign that he's back on track, or did he merely take advantage of some favorable conditions in the Vikings' victory? The answer, as is often the case, lies somewhere in the middle.

Let's start with the positives. McCarthy executed the Vikings' intended game plan by getting the ball out quickly and decisively to open receivers. He got through his reads and put the ball in play, largely on underneath throws. McCarthy's 7.5-yard average depth of target was his second-lowest of the season and he got the ball out in 2.56 seconds on average, easily his fastest mark so far. He took what the Commanders' defense gave him and delivered the football with accuracy.

J.J. McCarthy playing quickly and decisively led to the best game of his career against the Commanders pic.twitter.com/UiSaHuq1ia

— Will Ragatz (@WillRagatz) December 8, 2025

"Just decisive, threw the ball pretty accurately," Kevin O'Connell said on Monday. "I thought it was a really positive day for him."

It wasn't all checkdowns, either. McCarthy drove the ball well on an 18-yard touchdown pass to Josh Oliver and a couple almost identical-looking 20-yard chunks to Jordan Addison towards the left sideline. He didn't push the ball deep downfield or need to throw with much touch, but he did at least give Justin Jefferson a chance on an end zone target (1:03 mark in the video above).

J.J. McCarthy's passing chart against Washington. | Next Gen Stats

More important than anything else for McCarthy is that he did not commit a turnover or even really put the ball in harm's way (no turnover-worthy plays, per PFF). He moved the chains with his legs a couple times, and although he was technically sacked four times, those went for a combined loss of only 12 yards.

Onto the necessary caveats. This performance came against a Commanders pass defense that might be the NFL's worst. McCarthy wasn't pressured all that often, and he was mostly able to pick apart holes in Washington's soft zone looks. The Vikings also didn't trail at any point and called more runs than dropback passes, which kept their quarterback out of too many obvious passing situations.

Upon watching the film, one play stands out as an example where McCarthy can grow and improve. It was late in the third quarter, with the Vikings already leading 24-0, when O'Connell essentially grabbed the white board on the sideline and drew up a play in response to something he'd noticed from the Commanders' secondary. He believed he could get Justin Jefferson open downfield for an exclamation point on a great day.

That's exactly what ended up happening. Jefferson ran a slight double move and found himself wide open behind the defense. But McCarthy, with Bobby Wagner bearing down on him, passed it up and escaped the pocket to his right. He wound up scrambling for 16 yards on the play, which is a positive, but it could've been a 66-yard touchdown.

Here's the play KOC drew up on the sideline that got Justin Jefferson wide open behind the defense.

You'd like to think McCarthy rips it for a 66-yard touchdown if the pocket holds up. He ended up doing well to gain 16 on a scramble. pic.twitter.com/AIApua2OeD

— Will Ragatz (@WillRagatz) December 8, 2025

Because the Vikings were already up 24-0, it was reasonable for McCarthy to play it safe and flush out to his right after seeing Aaron Jones whiff on the blitz pickup and right guard Will Fries cede ground to his assignment. Five of McCarthy's ten interceptions this season have come on throws 30 or more yards beyond the line of scrimmage, which may have been in the back of his mind. It's hard to complain too much about a 16-yard rush on a drive that ended in a T.J. Hockenson touchdown.

But as McCarthy gains more experience and becomes more comfortable in the NFL, that'll be a throw he has to rip. He had plenty of time and space in the pocket to anticipate Jefferson breaking open and let loose on a deep ball, either at the top of his drop or after one hitch.

NFL Pro

The overall takeaway from this McCarthy performance is that it was absolutely an encouraging step in the right direction, but it also shouldn't be taken for more than what it was. It would've been highly concerning if McCarthy hadn't been able to execute the plan and make the throws he made against a truly woeful Washington pass defense.

To really be excited about McCarthy's trajectory heading into year two, we'll need to see him stack together strong performances against better defenses that use more man-to-man coverage, and in situations where the Vikings are trailing.

A day like Sunday represents major progress and should be a big boost for McCarthy's confidence. Now let's see if he can build on it this week when the Vikings travel to Dallas for a primetime showdown with the Cowboys.