Why the pressure on Kevin O'Connell will ramp up significantly in 2026

Kevin O'Connell has accomplished quite a bit in the four years since he was hired as the 10th head coach in Minnesota Vikings history.

Tangibly, he's gone 43-25 in the regular season, which is tied for the fifth-best record in the NFL in that span. That includes a 13-win debut season and a 14-win 2024 campaign, in which he helped resurrect Sam Darnold's career and joined Bud Grant (in 1969) as only the second Vikings coach to win the AP Coach of the Year award. Intangibly, he's reshaped the culture of the organization and built a foundation around resilience, toughness, and winning.

And yet, O'Connell enters 2026 under legitimate pressure due to the one glaring absence from his head coaching resume. Four years in, his teams have made two playoff appearances and gotten bounced in the first round both times. 17 NFL teams have won at least one playoff game since the 2022 season, and that list could grow as high as 20 by the end of next weekend's divisional round. Of the 12 teams without a chance to be on that list, the Vikings have the best regular season record by six wins (over the Chargers).

Just looking within the division, O'Connell is now the only coach in the NFC North without a playoff win to his name. Ben Johnson, in his first year as the Bears' head coach, already has one after Chicago's epic comeback win over the Packers on Saturday. Matt LaFleur has three of them, although only one came in the last five years. Dan Campbell has two. O'Connell is heading into year five still seeking his first.

NFC North head coaches sorted by career playoff wins. | Graphic by Jonathan Harrison, photos from Imagn Images

Because of O'Connell's regular season success, offensive acumen, and obvious leadership qualities, it would be a stretch to say he's "on the hot seat" this year. It's no secret that the Wilf family ownership group is fond of O'Connell and still holds the belief that he has the franchise headed in the right direction. If anyone in a major leadership position is on the hot seat, it's probably general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah.

At the same time, it feels fair to say the pressure on KOC will ramp up this year. If the Vikings don't get the quarterback decision right this offseason and miss the playoffs again in 2026, it would be no sure thing that O'Connell remains the head coach in 2027. The last two times the franchise missed the postseason in consecutive years were in 2020-21 (which got Mike Zimmer fired) and 2013-14 (the last year of Leslie Frazier and first year of Zimmer). Historically, outside of the first two years of a tenure, missing the playoffs twice in a row has spelled doom for Vikings head coaches.

Even making the playoffs and going one-and-done again would lead to further questions about O'Connell's ability to elevate the Vikings to legitimate contender status. Whether that situation would lead to a change would probably depend on the broader context of the season, the playoff loss, and the quarterback situation.

All of that context points to this being a massive offseason for O'Connell and the Vikings. His Coach of the Year award and contract extension are old news at this point. 2026 needs to be a bounce-back year for the Vikings — which brings us back to the quarterback question that will dominate the offseason. Whether it's fixing J.J. McCarthy's mechanics or making a splashy move for an established QB, that decision is one the Vikings have to get right. There's a lot riding on it.

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