Why the Saints and Falcons Will Decide Whether the Bucs or Panthers Win the NFC South

The NFC South division title is going to come down to a tiebreaker, we just don’t know which tiebreaker.

Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers are now huge Saints fans on Sunday. / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

The Buccaneers beat the Panthers in an NFC South showdown on Saturday to keep their postseason hopes alive. Just a few weeks ago, it looked like the Week 18 matchup would decide the division champion, but after an unlikely run by the Falcons to end the year, it is now Atlanta that holds the keys to the playoffs—but they can only open the door for the Panthers or Bucs, not for themselves.

With the Bucs win, both Tampa Bay and Carolina are now 8–9 on the year, tied atop the NFC South standings. Should they remain the only two teams at 8–9, the tiebreaker would eventually come down to common opponents, sending the Bucs to the playoffs.

However, while the Falcons were technically eliminated from postseason contention when they dropped to 4–9 back in Week 14, they have since won three straight games, and with a win over New Orleans on Sunday, could end the year at 8–9 and thus force a three-way tie atop the division standings.

The first tiebreaker in both a two-way and three-way tie is head-to-head matchups. Since the Bucs and Panthers split their season series, their two-way tie then goes to division record (also tied) before finally coming down to record against common opponents, where Tampa would advance.

But in a three-way tie, the head-to-head record tiebreaker includes all three teams that are tied, and since the Panthers swept the Falcons in their season series, their 3–1 record in head-to-head games against teams atop the division would put them into the playoffs.

Short version:
Saints win, Buccaneers in.
Falcons win, Panthers in.

It feels a little ridiculous, but also it’s a situation that the Buccaneers could have avoided with a season sweep over the Falcons, and one the Panthers could have avoided with a win against Tampa on Saturday night.

Instead, the division is going to come down to the final game of the year, while also not at all mattering to the two teams actually playing.

The Saints and Falcons kick off in New Orleans at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, and their division rivals will be rooting them on harder than ever before.

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