Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: Three Bold Predictions for NHL’s Western Conference Finals

The stage is set for the NHL's Western Conference finals. The Avalanche and Golden Knights, both of whom were division winners in the regular season, are each four wins away from a spot in the 2026 Stanley Cup Final.

After winning the Presidents’ Trophy, Colorado has been cruising during the playoffs. The Avs quickly swept the Kings in the first round and took down a talented Wild team in five games in round two. They’ve outscored their opponents 37–23 during the postseason and have only surrendered more than three goals in two of their nine games.

As for the Golden Knights, they defeated the Mammoth in six games in the first round, and weren’t too troubled by the Ducks in the second round, when they also advanced in six games.

This will be only the second playoff series between these two sides since Vegas first joined the NHL in 2016—they also faced off in the round robin-style opening round of the 2020 playoffs. In all, the Golden Knights have won five of seven postseason games against the Avalanche, having defeated them in a six-game series in 2021.

The 2026 series is set to get underway on Wednesday, May 20, with Game 1 to be played in Denver at Ball Arena.

We’re going to make some bold predictions for the showdown, including what team will win the series, and in how many games.

Nathan MacKinnon will lead the series in goals and assists

NHL, Avalanche — Colorado Avalanche star Nathan MacKinnon has 13 points in nine playoff games. | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

MacKinnon has been sensational during the playoffs for Colorado, saving the Avs with his equalizing goal in the final moments of Game 5––a picture-perfect wrist shot tucked into the corner of the net, just above the shoulder of Jesper Wallstedt. He’s making crucial contributions on a nightly basis, and on both ends of the ice.

MacKinnon is currently sixth among all skaters in points during the playoffs with 13. He’s scored seven goals and has six assists in just nine games. Although he’ll be up against Vegas’s tandem of Mitch Marner and Jack Eichel, who lead the league in playoff points, I think MacKinnon will continue to shine in the series and lead all players in both goals and assists.

The Avs won’t surrender more than three goals in a single game

The Avs have been brilliant defensively during their playoff run, and although Cale Makar may be dealing with some discomfort as he battles an injury he sustained in the second round, I’m expecting the defense to remain stalwart.

Colorado has surrendered an average of 2.55 goals per game during the playoffs, while scoring 4.11. Their goals against average is the best among Western Conference teams, and they’ve been effective on the penalty kill, denying their opponents on 79.3% of their power play opportunities. They led the league in that category during the regular season, when they boasted an 84.6% penalty kill rate.

As previously mentioned, the Avs have only given up more than three goals in two of their nine playoff games thus far. I think they’ll be able to stifle the Golden Knights’ offense throughout the series and hold their opponent to three or fewer goals in each game.

Colorado will defeat Vegas in five games

The Avs haven’t needed more than five games to advance to the next stage of the playoffs in any of their first two series. I don’t think they’ll need more to dispose of the Golden Knights, either.

Vegas is no slouch. It’s surrendered just 2.58 goals per game this postseason while averaging 3.67 itself. The Knights have an excellent penalty kill that’s conceded a goal on just 13.4% of its opportunities in the playoffs, and ranked seventh in the NHL in the regular season with an 81.4% success rate. They have playmakers in Marner and Eichel, as well as Mark Stone and gifted goal scorer Pavel Dorofoyev. Still, despite all that, the Avs are a superior team.

Colorado has incredible depth, with playmakers who have made postseason contributions on all four lines. Even when the likes of MacKinnon, Martin Necas and Makar are off the ice, the Avs offense is still a significant threat. That can be tiring on an opposing defense, which will have to be at its best throughout the full 60 minutes without getting a breather when Colorado’s bottom lines take the ice.

I think the relentless attack of the Avalanche will overwhelm the Golden Knights, and that Colorado will win the series in five games, including three games in which they win by two-plus goals.

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