Kalshi U.S. Open Odds: Everything You Need to Know to Bet on Golf Using Prediction Markets

We are under one month out from the U.S. Open, and the predictions on Kalshi have come up within the last week, with World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler sitting ahead of the rest of the field.

At the time of writing, Scheffler sits with a 15% chance to capture his first U.S. Open win and his fifth major and complete the career grand slam.

U.S.Open Prediction Market - Kalshi

Scottie Scheffler 15%
Rory McIlroy 8%
Jon Rahm 7%
Cameron Young 5%
Ludvig Aberg 5%
Xander Schauffele 5%
Bryson DeChambeau 4%
Matt Fitzpatrick 4%

Scheffler’s major wins started in 2022, when he won the Masters, and again in 2024, also in Augusta. In 2025, he captured wins at the PGA Championship and The Open Championship.

In 2026, out of 11 tournaments, he’s notched a top-5 finish six times, including a win at The American Express back in January. Most recently at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, he finished third.

Scheffler opened the market back on May 18th with an 18% chance to win, which has since settled at 15% at Kalshi. He is the only golfer listed with higher than a 10% chance to win. At his current 15% chance to win, $10 pays out $8.41 should he win.

So far this year, Scheffler finished second at the Masters and was T14 at the PGA Championship. He also has two other runner-up finishes and two 3rd places. He won the AmEx in January.

Markets Give Rory & Rahm a Chance

Two former U.S. Open winners, Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm, are the only other two golfers with percentages above 5% to win.

Rory has played well in both majors this season, highlighted by a win at The Masters, which was his second consecutive win at Augusta National. He was also in contention at the PGA Championship, but ultimately finished T7.

As for Rahm, he's dominated on LIV, but didn't contend at Augusta. He was right there at the PGA Championship, finishing T2, but didn't mount a convincing Sunday charge. He's had several great performances at past U.S. Opens, winning at Torey Pines and finishing Top 10 three other times.

Should Rory McIlroy come out on top, a $8.94 profit on Kalshi would be made on a $10 wager, while $9.89 would be profited on Rahm.

The U.S. Open is June 18-21 at Shinnecock Hills, one of the most notoriously tough golf courses in the world. Only three players have finished under par in five events played there.

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