Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal’s Route to the 2026 World Cup Final

Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi could meet on the world stage for the first time.

Cristiano Ronaldo (center) is chasing a World Cup title for possibly the last time. | Omar Vega/Getty Images

Cristiano Ronaldo’s admirable defiance of Father Time means he’s competing at his sixth World Cup this summer in pursuit of the one trophy missing from his overflowing cabinet.

While the all-time Portuguese great inspired his side to glory at the European Championship in 2016, Ronaldo has distinctly underwhelmed on the biggest occasion for his country. Portugal has failed to progress beyond the World Cup quarterfinals since 2010, with Ronaldo, such a definitive figure during his apex at club level, failing to score a single knockout stage goal at the tournament.

Such criticisms loomed large over the five-time Ballon d’Or winner after Portugal only managed a second place finish in Group K, settling for draws against DR Congo and Colombia. The team’s lone win came against Uzbekistan, powered by a Ronaldo brace.

The knockout stage presents a clean slate for Roberto Martínez’s men to show their true capabilities at what will likely be Ronaldo’s final dance on the world stage. There would be no better way to send off their captain than with a maiden World Cup title, but their path to the final on July 19 is anything but easy.

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Round of 32

Luka Modrić is in for a reunion with his former Real Madrid teammate. | Joosep Martinson/FIFA/Getty Images

Since Portugal failed to win its group, it must open its knockout stage berth against the runners-up of Group L: Croatia. Luka Modrić and Co. opened the tournament with a defeat to England, but bounced back with wins over Panama and Ghana.

While Croatia has drifted away from its ’golden generation,’ the team has plenty of modern World Cup pedigree; it reached the semifinals in Qatar after appearing in the final in 2018.

The round of 32 clash on July 2 will mark a reunion between Modrić and Ronaldo, with the loser likely saying goodbye to the World Cup forever.

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Round of 16

Lamine Yamal (center) leads Spain’s attack. | Justin Setterfield/Getty Images

The real consequence of finishing second in the group comes in the round of 16. On July 6, Portugal will likely have to face the reigning European champions: Iberian rivals Spain.

La Roja edged their neighbors on penalties in their previous World Cup knockout stage outing back in 2010, while a Ronaldo hat-trick salvaged a draw for Portugal during their group stage clash in 2018.

The two sides also faced off in the 2025 UEFA Nations League final which Portugal won on penalties. Ronaldo got the better of teenage sensation Lamine Yamal on that occasion, but it goes without saying that Martínez’s men would rather Austria upset Spain in the round of 32.

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Quarterfinals

The USMNT is dreaming of a legendary run on home soil. | Kohjiro Kinno/Sports Illustrated

Should Portugal punch its ticket to the quarterfinals, the competition immediately gets easier. The Seleção das Quinas will clash with Belgium, the USMNT, Senegal or Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Portugal will like its chances going against any of the four nations. It just defeated the Stars and Stripes 2–0 during the March international break, and has the individual talent to get past Senegal or Bosnia and Herzegovina. Belgium provide the biggest threat on paper, but the Red Devils are not the force they once were.

Barring a massive misstep on July 10, Portugal should be able to overcome any of its potential opponents to make its first World Cup semifinals appearance in 20 years.

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Semifinals

France has dominated teams so far at the World Cup | Erick W. Rasco/ Sports Illustrated

A blockbuster semifinal with France could be on the cards. This would be a repeat of the Euro 2016 final, which Ronaldo’s nation infamously won while he watched on injured from the sidelines.

Portugal is winless in its subsequent four clashes with Les Bleus, though, which paints a worrying picture for Ronaldo and Co. Making it even more daunting is just how dominant Didier Deschamps’s men have been in North America this summer, crushing teams for sport in their pursuit of a third World Cup title.

The Seleção das Quinas would much rather face Paraguay, Canada or Morocco on July 14, but it’s hard to imagine any of those sides overcoming France.

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Final

Argentina cruised to the top of Group J. | Pablo Morano/BSR Agency/Getty Images

For the first time ever, Ronaldo could face up against great contemporary rival Lionel Messi on soccer’s grandest stage on July 19. Argentina are the favorites to come out on top of the other side of the bracket, making for a potential storybook World Cup final—for the neutral viewers, anyway.

Should Argentina stumble on the way to MetLife Stadium, Portugal is likely to face either England or Brazil. Ronaldo would love going against the Three Lions’ backline, but his own defense would hate to match up against Harry Kane.

Brazil, meanwhile, is desperate to reach the glory of its predecessors. The potential match would set up a unique storyline: Ronaldo vs. Vinicius Junior, the past and present No. 7s at Real Madrid.

Other potential opponents are Noway, Mexico, Cape Verde, Australia, Egypt, Switzerland, Algeria, Colombia or Ghana.

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