Supercomputer Predicts Champions League Playoff First Legs: Real Madrid Out for Revenge

PSG, Inter and Newcastle United are among the big names looking to keep their European dreams alive.

Real Madrid are chasing a much-needed win. | Federico Titone/SOPA Images/LightRocket/Getty Images

Tuesday brings the first legs of the Champions League knockout playoffs, with a whole host of big names forced to fight for their futures in the competition.

Fate has handed Real Madrid a chance at revenge against Benfica after a shock 4–2 defeat to José Mourinho’s Portuguese outfit on the final day of the league phase saw them dumped out of the automatic qualification spots.

Reigning champions Paris Saint-Germain must go through Monaco to reach the round of 16, while last season’s beaten finalists, Inter, face a tricky test against Bodø/Glimt.

As we prepare ourselves for two days of enthralling affairs, here’s how Opta’s supercomputer sees the first leg of each tie playing out.

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Supercomputer Predicts Champions League Knockout Playoff First Legs

Tuesday

PSG are favorites to beat Monaco. | Jean Catuffe/Getty Images

The action kicks off in Türkiye, where Galatasaray host Juventus in Tuesday’s first game. A late resurgence saw Juve climb up to 13th in the league standings, giving them a slight edge in this one despite the hosts’ impressive home form.

While Juventus rose up the rankings late on, Italian rivals Atalanta endured the opposite fate. Automatic qualification was within reach before back-to-back losses dumped them into the playoffs, where they face a tough meeting with Borussia Dortmund. It’s the Germans who are backed to get the victory in Tuesday’s first leg.

As we learned in the final matchday of the league phase, predicting meetings between Benfica and Real Madrid is nearly impossible. Given this one is a two-legged affair, expect Mourinho’s side to play with much more caution, although the supercomputer believes that could play into Real Madrid’s hands.

Finally on Tuesday, we have Monaco vs. PSG, a fixture with plenty of recent history. Luis Enrique’s champions haven’t been themselves this season but are still seen as significant favorites to secure a result against a Monaco side sitting eighth in Ligue 1.

Fixture	Home Win %	Draw %	Away Win %
Galatasaray vs. Juventus	29.9%	26.1%	44%
Borussia Dortmund vs. Atalanta	47.5%	24.6%	27.9%
Benfica vs. Real Madrid	28.7%	24.3%	47%
Monaco vs. PSG	20.7%	22.8%	56.5%

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Wednesday

Newcastle will fancy their chances of progressing. | Glyn KIRK/AFP/Getty Images

We head to Azerbaijan for Wednesday’s first game as Qarabağ host Newcastle United. The hosts drew with Chelsea during the league phase but ended with a 6–0 thumping at the hands of Liverpool. The supercomputer does not give Qarabağ much hope to start this tie.

Beaten finalists Inter will fancy their chances against Bodø/Glimt, but such arrogance came back to bite the last two opponents of the Norwegian side, who defeated Manchester City and Atlético Madrid in their final two league outings. Nevertheless, Inter remain heavy favorites.

Atlético Madrid managed to tank the momentum built from their 4–0 win over Barcelona with a 3–0 defeat at the hands of Rayo Vallecano, but Diego Simeone’s side are still backed to steady the ship with victory over Club Brugge in Belgium.

We saw Olympiacos take on Bayer Leverkusen in the league phase as the Greek giants roared to a 2–0 victory on home soil. That result gives them a narrow edge in this first leg, which is perhaps the most evenly balanced of all eight games.

Fixture	Home Win %	Draw %	Away Win %
Qarabağ vs. Newcastle	15.8%	20.6%	63.6%
Bodø/Glimt vs. Inter	23.8%	23%	53.2%
Club Brugge vs. Atlético Madrid	27.9%	24.6%	47.5%
Olympiacos vs. Bayer Leverkusen	39.5%	26.7%	33.8%

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