These Receivers Have the Best Odds to Record 1,500 Yards

Five players are 3-to-1 or better to hit this milestone. Can any of them become the first receiver with 2,000 yards?

There have been as many 1,500-yard receiving seasons in the last two years as there were in the previous five combined.

Cooper Kupp and Tyreek Hill each hit that milestone once; Justin Jefferson and Davante Adams both did so twice. Those four pass-catchers account for the six 1,500-yard receiving seasons since the NFL schedule expanded to 17 games in 2021. Only six players hit that mark in the five years prior (Stefon Diggs, Michael Thomas, Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans and Antonio Brown) and none of them did so in back-to-back seasons like Jefferson and Adams.

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Heading into 2023, Jefferson and Adams both have favorable odds to make it three years in a row with 1,500 yards through the air and Hill also has a solid shot at repeating this feat. Let’s examine those three players’ cases and see which other receivers have a shot.

Justin Jefferson, Vikings

Odds to have 1,500 receiving yards: +130

Jefferson has built on his receiving yardage total each year he’s been in the league. He compiled 1,400 as a rookie, 1,616 in his sophomore season and 1,809 to lead the NFL in 2022. The next logical step with that level of linear improvement is 2,000 yards, which has never been done before. Given the uptick in pass attempts for Kirk Cousins in coach Kevin O’Connell’s offense, 1,500 yards feels like the floor for Jefferson — it only took him 13 games to get there a year ago.

Davante Adams, Raiders

Odds to have 1,500 receiving yards: +200

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Three years, three different quarterbacks, three consecutive 1,500-yard seasons? That’s what Adams is going for this year in Las Vegas where Jimmy Garoppolo is his latest signal-caller. The fact that Adams’s numbers did not fall off at all after he went from catching passes from Aaron Rodgers to Derek Carr is a testament to his individual greatness and his monster target share. Garoppolo has struggled to stay healthy, but he did support a 1,405-yard campaign from Deebo Samuel in 2021, which is a good sign for what he can potentially accomplish with Adams.

Tyreek Hill, Dolphins

Odds to have 1,500 receiving yards: +200

Hill recorded more yards in his first year in Miami than he ever did in Kansas City. His 1,710 yards were second only behind Jefferson and that was with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa out for four games. Hill, like Jefferson, has his sights set on the first-ever 2,000-yard receiving season. However, Michael Fabiano pointed out just how difficult it is for receivers with 1,700-plus yards to repeat that production the following year. Still, the volume should be there for the NFL’s fastest wideout to repeat this feat and stave off regression.

Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals

Odds to have 1,500 receiving yards: +250

Chase fell 45 yards shy of 1,500 as a rookie. In his second season, a hip injury and a canceled contest limited him to 12 games and he totaled 1,046 yards. Even if he had suited up for all 17 in 2022, he was on pace to fall just short of 1,500 once again. Perhaps he can get over the hump in Year 3. Cincinnati invested in its offensive line to protect quarterback Joe Burrow (who’s currently dealing with a calf strain), and he and Chase have one of the best connections in the league dating back to their time together at LSU. Chase showed last year he can do more than beat defenses deep — perhaps this is the season he challenges for the receiving title.

Cooper Kupp, Rams

Odds to have 1,500 receiving yards: +300

Kupp is responsible for the second-best single receiving season of all time. He tallied 1,947 in 2021, just shy of Calvin Johnson’s record of 1,964. Kupp was on pace for at least another 1,500 yards last year until a high ankle sprain cut his season short. (He’s also currently dealing with a hamstring injury that knocked him out of practice earlier this week.) Kupp is returning for another go-around as Matthew Stafford’s unquestioned top target. If Los Angeles is as bad as expected, this team could be in plenty of shootouts, which bodes well for another impressive statistical season out of Kupp.

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