Jeremy Fuchs
Thursday October 13th, 2016

Sports Illustrated's College Basketball Projection System is a collaboration between economist Dan Hanner and SI's Luke Winn and Jeremy Fuchs that produces our 1-351 team rankings, conference predictions and player statistical forecasts. For a deeper look at how the system works, read this explainer.

We simulated the season 10,000 times and generated median stats for every player in the top eight conferences (AAC, ACC, Atlantic 10, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC) as well as our other forecasted at-large bid candidates (Gonzaga, Saint Mary's, BYU, Wichita State, San Diego State and Princeton). Today we're unveiling our projected top 100 scoring transfers, according to raw points per game, from that set of teams. This list is limited to players who've previously appeared at D-I schools; it does not include players who've only played at junior colleges. 

(Our breakdown of the national player of the year race ran on SI.com on Wednesday.)

Rank Name Current School Proj. PPG Previous School Previous PPG
1 Emile Blackman Duquesne 16.5 Niagara 15.8
2 Marcus Foster Creighton 14.2 Kansas St. 12.5
3 Matt Mobley St. Bonaventure 14 Central Connecticut 17.3
4 Austin Nichols Virginia 13.8 Memphis 13.3
5 Andrew White Syracuse 13.8 Nebraska 16.6
6 Deandre Burnett Mississippi 13.5 Miami FL 7
7 Javontae Hawkins Fordham 12.8 Eastern Kentucky 17
8 Kale Abrahamson Duquesne 12.3 Drake 11.1
9 Nigel Williams-Goss Gonzaga 12.3 Washington 15.6
10 Jordan Mathews Gonzaga 12.3 California 13.5

While Niagara-to-Duquesne guard Emile Blackman projects to be our top transfer scorer, Marcus Foster (No. 2) could have the biggest impact on the national rankings, as he'll be partnering with Maurice Watson Jr. to give Creighton arguably the Big East's best starting backcourt.

Syracuse lost a lot from its surprise Final Four run (notably senior guard Michael Gbinije and freshman wing Malachi Richardson), but they’ll get a boost from grad transfer Andrew White (No. 5). White averaged 16.6 points last season for Nebraska. The 6' 7" small forward can replace some of Richardson’s production, while helping from distance. White made 41.2% percent of his shots from three; Richardson made 35.3%.

Nigel Williams-Goss (No. 9) is expected to drop in scoring, but he might play a big role for Gonzaga. Josh Perkins started all 36 games as a freshman point guard, averaging 10.1 points and 4.1 assists. In 2014–15, Williams-Goss averaged 15.6 points, 4.7 rebounds and 5.9 assists for Washington, which gave him second-team All-Pac-12 honors. Gonzaga lost its three leading scorers (Kyle Wiltjer, Domantas Sabonis, Eric McClellan)—Williams-Goss can step right in and pick up the slack.

Rank Name Current School Proj. PPG Previous School Previous PPG
11 Shannon Evans Arizona St. 12.1 Buffalo 15.4
12 Rodney Pryor Georgetown 12 Robert Morris 18
13 Andrew Rowsey Marquette 12 UNC Asheville 19.2
14 Manu Lecomte Baylor 11.8 Miami FL 7.9
15 Geno Thorpe South Florida 11.8 Penn St. 8.7
16 Elijah Bryant BYU 11.8 Elon 14.2
17 Cullen Neal Mississippi 11.7 New Mexico 12.3
18 Johnathan Williams Gonzaga 11.6 Missouri 11.9
19 Kethan Savage Butler 11.3 George Washington 11.8
20 Chris Harrison-Docks DePaul 11.2 Western Kentucky 10

Arizona State senior guard Gerry Blakes averaged 11 points last season. So slot in Shannon Evans (No. 11), who we project to average 12.1 points at the two. Evans, a 6' 1" transfer from Buffalo, will combine with junior guard Tra Holder (14.2 points per game) to provide a solid one-two scoring punch in the backcourt for a team that finished 15–17 last year.

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He’s in his sixth season, but Rodney Pryor might (No. 12) make his biggest impact this fall. A 6' 5" graduate transfer from Robert Morris, Pryor averaged 18 points last season. The guard should help offset the loss of star D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera.

Rank Name Current School Proj. PPG Previous School Previous PPG
21 Connar Tava Boston College 11.2 Western Michigan 12.3
22 Grant Mullins California 10.8 Columbia 13.3
23 Nick King Alabama 10.6 Memphis 7.3
24 Semi Ojeleye SMU 10.6 Duke 3
25 David Collette Utah 10.4 Utah St. 12.8
26 Junior Etou Tulsa 10.4 Rutgers 7.4
27 John Gillon Syracuse 10.4 Colorado St. 13.2
28 Avery Woodson Butler 10.2 Memphis 9.6
29 Terry Larrier Connecticut 10.1 VCU 6.7
30 Nigel Johnson Rutgers 10.1 Kansas St. 5.2

With his transfer battle over, David Collette (No. 25) can focus on scoring in the paint. The 6' 8" forward was great in his freshman season at Utah State, shooting 59.1% from the field and averaging 12.8 points and 5.0 rebounds. Now at cross-state rival Utah, Collette will be tasked with replacing departed center Jakob Poeltl, who was drafted ninth overall by the Raptors. Collette and 6' 9" junior Kyle Kuzma (10.8 points) will form a formidable front line.

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Junior Etou (No. 26), a talented yet mercurial forward, will bring a lot of athleticism to the Tulsa frontline. The cousin of Serge Ibaka, Etou, a 6' 7" junior, can run the floor well and might benefit from not playing in the Big 10.

Avery Woodson (No. 28) joins a Butler team in need of guards. Woodson, a 6' 2" grad transfer, made 77 three-pointers, fifth most in Memphis history. After losing Kellen Dunham and Roosevelt Jones to graduation, Butler will feature Woodson and fellow transfer Kethan Savage in the backcourt.

Rank Name Current School Proj. PPG Previous School Previous PPG
31 Canyon Barry Florida 10 College of Charleston 19.7
32 Jaren Sina George Washington 9.9 Seton Hall 7
33 RaShid Gaston Xavier 9.9 Norfolk St. 15.5
34 Anton Gill Nebraska 9.8 Louisville 2.5
35 Eric Paschall Villanova 9.8 Fordham 15.9
36 Alex Robinson TCU 9.7 Texas A&M 5.2
37 Akeem Springs Minnesota 9.7 Milwaukee 13.2
38 L.J. Rose BYU 9.5 Houston 9.8
39 Corey Henderson Jr. Tulsa 9.4 Wichita St. 1.9
40 Kyle Washington Cincinnati 9.3 North Carolina St. 6.8

A former top-100 recruit, Jaren Sina (No. 32) will bring his three-point prowess to George Washington. The 6' 2" junior shot 34.8% from behind the arc in two seasons with Seton Hall. Sina can play both guard positions, which will be helpful after the team lost senior guards Alex Mitola, Patricio Garino and Joe McDonald.

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A bit of a 'tweener, Eric Paschall (No. 35) will, at the least, be a valuable depth player for the defending champs. The 6' 7" Paschall, the Atlantic-10 rookie of the year in 2015, averaged 15.9 points per game and 5.5 rebounds. He’s a bit log-jammed by Josh Hart and Kris Jenkins, but he should see enough minutes off the bench to make an impact.

Rank Name Current School Proj. PPG Previous School Previous PPG
41 Josh Newkirk Indiana 9.3 Pittsburgh 5.9
42 Reggie Lynch Minnesota 9.2 Illinois St. 9.5
43 Christian Kessee Memphis 9.1 Coppin St. 14.6
44 Marcquise Reed Clemson 9 Robert Morris 15.1
45 David Andoh St. Bonaventure 8.9 Liberty 10
46 Isaiah Jackson Providence 8.8 George Mason 8.7
47 Montaque Gill-Caesar San Diego St. 8.7 Missouri 9.1
48 Zach Lewis Massachusetts 8.6 Canisius 12.5
49 Tony Hicks Louisville 8.6 Penn 13.2
50 Kellen McCormick Georgia Tech 8.6 Western Michigan 6

Not a pure replacement for Kris Dunn, Isaiah Jackson (No. 46) will nonetheless get a bunch of the former star’s minutes. Jackson, a 6' 6" guard-forward who last played at George Mason, can play like a point-forward, and lend some experience to a young Providence team.

It’s a big jump from Ivy League to a national title contender, but Tony Hicks (No. 49) is a perfect candidate to excel. The 6' 2" guard sat out 2015–16, but led Penn in 2013–14 and '14–15 in scoring, with 14.9 and 13.2 points per game.

Rank Name Current School Proj. PPG Previous School Previous PPG
51 Katin Reinhardt Marquette 8.5 USC 11.4
52 Ronnie Johnson Auburn 8.5 Houston 9.4
53 Lew Evans Tennessee 8.5 Utah St. 8.4
54 Isaiah Manderson South Florida 8.4 Texas Tech 3
55 Austin Arians Wake Forest 8.4 Milwaukee 11.4
56 Anthony Livingston Texas Tech 8.3 Arkansas St. 15.5
57 Corban Collins Alabama 8.2 Morehead St. 11
58 Keyshawn Woods Wake Forest 8.1 Charlotte 8.4
59 L.G. Gill Maryland 7.9 Duquesne 10.1
60 Jordan Barnett Missouri 7.9 Texas 3.3

Keyshawn Woods (No. 58) will add some offensive punch to a Wake Forest team that finished 11–20 last year. The 6' 3" guard, a former North Carolina Gatorade Player of the Year, averaged 8.4 points in his freshman season at Charlotte, and shot a C-USA leading 46.6% from behind the arc.

L.G. Gill (No. 59) left Duquesne and will come to Maryland as a starting power forward. The 6' 8" Gill is a coup for a team that lost four starters. Gill is a good shooter, who makes 34.4% of his downtown attempts. He averaged 10.1 points and 6.5 rebounds for Duquesne last year.

Rank Name Current School Proj. PPG Previous School Previous PPG
61 Merrill Holden Iowa St. 7.7 Louisiana Tech 8.1
62 Chinonso Obokoh St. Bonaventure 7.6 Syracuse 1.1
63 Shaqquan Aaron USC 7.6 Louisville 1.3
64 Giovanni McLean Texas Tech 7.5 Quinnipiac 12.9
65 Tyler Rawson Utah 7.5 Southern Utah 7.4
66 Elijah Thomas Clemson 7.4 Texas A&M 3.8
67 Torin Dorn North Carolina St. 7.4 Charlotte 12
68 Darrell Bowie Iowa St. 7.3 Northern Illinois 9.8
69 Andre Washington East Carolina 7.2 Wake Forest 1.7
70 Patrick Steeves George Washington 7.1 Harvard 9.1

Elijah Thomas (No. 66) gets eligible in December for Clemson and should be a nice, front-line complement to star Jaron Blossomgame, whom we ranked No. 7 in our national player of the year forecast. Darrell Bowie (No. 68) steps onto an Iowa State team in desperate need of frontcourt help after losing Georges Niang and Jameel McKay.

Rank Name Current School Proj. PPG Previous School Previous PPG
71 Josh Cunningham Dayton 7.1 Bradley 7.9
72 Malcolm Bernard Xavier 7 Florida A&M 14.4
73 Dustin Thomas Arkansas 6.9 Colorado 4.4
74 Tarin Smith Duquesne 6.6 Nebraska 4.5
75 Keondre Dew Oregon St. 6.5 Tulsa 0.5
76 Rashad Muhammad Miami FL 6.3 San Jose St. 13.9
77 Jodan Price Georgia Tech 6.2 Eastern Michigan 4.2
78 Demetrius Henry La Salle 6.2 South Carolina 6
79 Emmitt Holt Providence 6.2 Indiana 3.6
80 Xavian Stapleton Mississippi St. 6.1 Louisiana Tech 6.7

Malcolm Bernard (No. 72) won't have the outsized offensive role at Xavier that he did at Florida A&M in '15–16, but he's jumping from one of the worst teams in D-I to one that can contend for a Big East title. Rashad Muhammad (No. 76) is in a similar situation, jumping from woeful San Jose State, where he was a high shot-volume guy, to Miami, where he'll need to be a role player.

Rank Name Current School Proj. PPG Previous School Previous PPG
81 J.C. Hampton Texas A&M 6.1 Lipscomb 15.9
82 Matthew Atewe Washington 6.1 Auburn 1.5
83 Paschal Chukwu Syracuse 5.8 Providence 2.6
84 Shelton Mitchell Clemson 5.7 Vanderbilt 4.3
85 LaRon Smith Auburn 5.7 Bethune Cookman 7.2
86 William Magarity Davidson 5.5 Boston College 3.9
87 Terrence Samuel Penn St. 5.3 Connecticut 3.6
88 Nick Weiler-Babb Iowa St. 5.3 Arkansas 0.7
89 Devin Davis Houston 5.2 Indiana 2.4
90 Maurice Jeffers Boston College 5.1 Delaware 5.2

The one thing Texas A&M lacks entering '16–17 is a proven point guard, and if J.C. Hampton (No. 81)—who was a high-scoring combo guard at Lipscomb—can provide quality minutes at that spot while contributing occasional points, he'll add a lot of value. Syracuse adds the tallest player in school history in 7' 2" center Paschal Chukwu (No. 83).

Rank Name Current School Proj. PPG Previous School Previous PPG
91 Evan Taylor Nebraska 4.9 Samford 6.4
92 Jordan Chatman Boston College 4.9 BYU 2.6
93 C.J. Gettys Rutgers 4.8 UNC Wilmington 5.3
94 Charles Buggs USC 4.6 Minnesota 5.8
95 Shadell Millinghaus Texas Tech 4.5 Southern Miss 7.4
96 Tariq Owens St. John's 4.5 Tennessee 1.2
97 Valentine Izundu San Diego St. 4.4 Washington St. 3.8
98 B.J. Johnson La Salle 4.3 Syracuse 4.2
99 Nick Banyard UCF 4 Illinois St. 5.2
100 Madison Jones Seton Hall 3.6 Wake Forest 4.7

A JUCO All-America, Shadell Millinghaus (No. 95) adds some much needed scoring to a Texas Tech team that lost Toddrick Gotcher and Devaugntah Williams. Millinghaus, a 6' 2" guard, averaged 16.9 points, 5.2 rebounds and shot 47.5 from the field with Northwest Florida State.

C.J. Gettys (No. 93) is 7-foot, 245-pounds and set to anchor Rutgers defense. A transfer from UNC Wilmington, he averaged 5.3 points, 5.1 rebounds and shot 50% from the field. Rutgers needs all the help it can get—a big body with a soft touch is a nice start.

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