Bowl Projections: Predicting the playoff, other bowls after Week 10
Our latest bowl projections feature the same College Football Playoff field as last week, albeit with a twist.
After Florida State’s 42-31 comeback win over Louisville on Thursday night, the Seminoles are looking more and more like the No. 1 team in the country. That’s where we have them slotted this week, and that’d likely give the ‘Noles the Sugar Bowl spot in the semifinal, with No. 2 Mississippi State heading out to Pasadena. The rest of the New Year’s Six, however, look quite different than our projections from a week ago.
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Before moving forward, a quick reminder on how this all works. The selection committee fills the two semifinal bowls based on its final rankings. It then rounds out the four non-playoff New Year’s Six bowls, while fulfilling certain contractual obligations, such as pitting an ACC team against an SEC/Big Ten/Notre Dame team in the Orange Bowl. The remaining teams are then fed into each league’s contract bowls. If a league doesn’t produce enough bowl-eligible teams, bowls can invite replacement teams from other leagues.
This season the ACC, Big Ten and SEC have each pooled a select number of bowls together and will decide where to place teams. While the Big 12 and Pac-12 use a more straightforward method -- the Pac-12’s No. 2 choice would go to the Alamo Bowl, the No. 3 to the Holiday Bowl, etc. -- the process for the other three Power Five leagues is less structured. For instance, the ACC’s No. 2 choice will go to the Russell Athletic Bowl, but teams Nos. 3-6 can land anywhere among the Sun, Belk, Music City/Taxslayer or Pinstripe bowls.
Keep in mind, “Pac-12 No. 2” doesn't mean the Pac-12’s second-place team. Fan travel and geographical location factor into bowl selection as much as conference standings. Thus, leagues aren't obligated to fill bowls based on records.
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Bowl | Date | Location | Matchup | Pick |
Peach | Dec. 31 | Atlanta | TBD vs. TBD | Auburn vs. E. Carolina |
Fiesta | Dec. 31 | Glendale, Ariz. | TBD vs. TBD | Ole Miss vs. Kansas State |
Orange | Dec. 31 | Miami | ACC vs. Big Ten/SEC/ND | Duke vs. Alabama |
Cotton | Jan. 1 | Arlington, Texas | TBD vs. TBD | Notre Dame vs. Mich. St. |
Rose (semifinal) | Jan. 1 | Pasadena, Calif. | TBD vs. TBD | Miss. State vs. Oregon |
Sugar (semifinal) | Jan. 1 | New Orleans | TBD vs. TBD | Florida State vs. TCU |
Bowl | Date | Location | Matchup | Pick |
New Orleans | Dec. 20 | New Orleans | MWC vs. Sun Belt | Colo. State vs. Ark. State |
New Mexico | Dec. 20 | Albuquerque, N.M. | MAC vs. MWC | La. Tech vs. Nevada |
Las Vegas | Dec. 20 | Las Vegas | MWC vs. Pac-12 | Boise State vs. Stanford |
Idaho Potato | Dec. 20 | Boise, Idaho | MAC vs. MWC | NIU vs. San Diego State |
Camellia | Dec. 20 | Montgomery, Ala. | MAC vs. Sun Belt | W. Michigan vs. S. Ala. |
Miami Beach | Dec. 22 | Miami | AAC vs. BYU | Memphis vs. BYU |
Boca Raton | Dec. 23 | Boca Raton, Fla. | C-USA vs. MAC | Rice vs. C. Michigan |
Poinsettia | Dec. 23 | San Diego | MWC vs. Navy | Utah State vs. Navy |
Bahamas | Dec. 24 | Nassau, Bahamas | C-USA vs. MAC | Middle Tenn. vs. Akron |
Hawaii | Dec. 24 | Honolulu | C-USA vs. MWC | UTEP vs. Air Force |
Heart of Dallas | Dec. 26 | Dallas | Big Ten vs. C-USA | Minnesota vs. Marshall |
Quick Lane | Dec. 26 | Detroit | ACC vs. Big Ten | Pittsburgh vs. Rutgers |
Bitcoin | Dec. 26 | St. Petersburg | AAC vs. ACC | Houston vs. Virginia |
Military | Dec. 27 | Annapolis, Md. | AAC vs. ACC | UCF vs. UNC |
Sun | Dec. 27 | El Paso, Texas | ACC vs. Pac-12 | Louisville vs. Arizona |
Independence | Dec. 27 | Shreveport, La. | ACC vs. SEC | NC State vs. Washington* |
Pinstripe | Dec. 27 | Bronx, N.Y. | ACC vs. Big Ten | BC vs. Maryland |
Holiday | Dec. 27 | San Diego | Big Ten vs. Pac-12 | Wisconsin vs. USC |
Liberty | Dec. 29 | Memphis | Big 12 vs. SEC | WVU vs. Tennessee |
Russell Athletic | Dec. 29 | Orlando, Fla. | ACC vs. Big 12 | Clemson vs. Oklahoma |
Texas | Dec. 29 | Houston | Big 12 vs. SEC | Okla. St. vs. Texas A&M |
Music City | Dec. 30 | Nashville | ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC | Miami vs. Georgia |
Belk | Dec. 30 | Charlotte, N.C. | ACC vs. SEC | Ga. Tech vs. S. Carolina |
San Francisco | Dec. 30 | Santa Clara, Calif. | Big Ten vs. Pac-12 | Iowa vs. UCLA |
Citrus | Jan. 1 | Orlando, Fla. | Big Ten vs. SEC | Nebraska vs. LSU |
Outback | Jan. 1 | Tampa, Fla. | Big Ten vs. SEC | Ohio State vs. Missouri |
Armed Forces | Jan. 2 | Fort Worth, Texas | AAC vs. Army | Cincinnati vs. Cal* |
TaxSlayer | Jan. 2 | Jacksonville, Fla. | ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC | Penn State vs. Arkansas |
Alamo | Jan. 2 | San Antonio | Big 12 vs. Pac-12 | Baylor vs. Arizona State |
Cactus | Jan. 2 | Tempe, Ariz. | Big 12 vs. Pac-12 | Ohio* vs. Utah |
Birmingham | Jan. 3 | Birmingham, Ala. | AAC vs. SEC | Temple vs. Florida |
GoDaddy | Jan. 4 | Mobile, Ala. | MAC vs. Sun Belt | BGSU vs. UL-Laf. |
* -- Replacement team
