2015 Big Ten preview: Which team is capable of challenging Ohio State?
After an off-season spent celebrating a national title, welcoming in the splashiest hire of this year’s coaching carousel and enjoying its biggest surge of momentum in nearly a decade, the Big Ten must finally put its rising reputation to the test.
The conference widely assumed to be shut out of the playoff after Week 2 of the 2014 season enters this fall with realistic hopes of putting two teams in the top four. Behind them, two powerhouse programs that fell into declines appear poised to begin their ascents back to dominance while two new coaches in the Big Ten West hope to make strong first impressions. Maryland and Rutgers both made successful debuts in their new conference last season but now face uphill battles to maintain that success in Year Two. And a Northwestern program that seemed on the rise after ’12 must now fight to avoid its third straight season without a bowl appearance. So how will these storylines and more play out in 2015?
|Ohio State||12-0 (8-0)||Wisc.||10-2 (7-1)|
|Mich. State||11-1 (7-1)||Nebraska||8-4 (5-3)|
|Penn State||9-3 (5-3)||Minn.||7-5 (4-4)|
|Mich.||7-5 (5-3)||Iowa||7-5 (4-4)|
|Maryland||6-6 (3-5)||N'western||5-7 (3-5)|
|Indiana||4-8 (1-7)||Illinois||5-7 (2-6)|
|Rutgers||5-7 (1-7)||Purdue||2-10 (1-7)|
Conference title game: Ohio State over Wisconsin
Names to know
Offensive MVPJ.T. Barrett, QB, Ohio State2014 stats: 2,834 passing yards, 34 passing TDs, 10 interceptions; 938 rushing yards, 11 rushing TDs2015 projected stats: 3,705 passing yards, 42 passing TDs, 8 interceptions; 1,125 rushing yards, 12 rushing TDsAs great as Cardale Jones was in the Buckeyes’ three most pivotal wins of last season, Barrett was even better. He beat out Jones to win the backup spot to Braxton Miller last year and will do so again to win the starting job this season. Had Barrett not gotten hurt, he seemed likely to be a Heisman finalist in 2014 after delivering some of his best performances against Ohio State’s toughest foes. Now imagine what he can do with a season of experience.
Defensive MVPJoey Bosa, DE, Ohio State2014 stats: 55 tackles, 21 tackles for loss, 13.5 sacks, 4 forced fumbles2015 projected stats: 56 tackles, 24 tackles for loss, 14 sacks, 4 forced fumblesWhile Virginia Tech will get a reprieve from Ohio State’s ferocious defensive end, the rest of the teams the Buckeyes face won’t be so fortunate. Bosa dominated opposing offensive tackles last year, picking up a sack in five straight games in the middle of the season. And he hardly benefited from an element of surprise after compiling 13.5 tackles for loss and 7.5 sacks as a freshman. Even with defenses’ full attention, Bosa created havoc by blowing past blockers with incredible quickness or, as he showed against Penn State, simply overpowering with strength.
Impact Freshman2013 stats (high school): 57 tackles, 4 interceptions; 1,381 all-purpose yards, 19 TDs2015 projected stats: 75 tackles, 4 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks, 3 interceptions, 10 passes broken up; 600 all-purpose yards, 2 TDsFor the second straight year, Peppers takes this spot. Poised to be the breakout star of Brady Hoke’s defense last year, Peppers played in just three games before a leg injury ended his season. Jim Harbaugh will be grateful to have all four years of Peppers’s eligibility still available as he was the No. 3 overall recruit in the class of 2014, according to Rivals.com. Harbaugh has hinted that Peppers could be used on special teams and offense this season in addition to his safety duties; he’s simply too gifted of a player to not have on the field whenever possible.
Coach on the Hot SeatTim Beckman, Illinois2014 record: 6–7 (3–5)Record at Illinois: 12–25 (4–20)Like Peppers, Beckman returns to this spot for the second consecutive year. He aided his coaching stock by getting the Fighting Illinois to a bowl games last year, but Simon Cvijanovic’s allegations of abuse quickly undid the goodwill he garnered. Barring further allegations or evidence against Beckman, winning should prove to be a cure. But a schedule that includes divisional crossover games against Ohio State and at Penn State won’t help lead Illinois to another postseason appearance.
Three key nonconference games
Wisconsin vs. Alabama (in Arlington, Texas) (Sept. 5)
The Badgers face the easiest conference schedule in the Big Ten, drawing Maryland and Rutgers in crossover games in addition to its intra-division slate against the weaker West Division. Before opening league play, however, Wisconsin will pack plenty of strength-of-schedule points into its season opener against the Crimson Tide. Although Alabama will be the heavy favorite, the Badgers could make a strong statement simply by keeping it close with the defending SEC champions. If Wisconsin can pull off the upset, it has a good chance to finish the regular season undefeated.
Ohio State at Virginia Tech (Sept. 7)
The Buckeyes’ opener already had plenty of appeal simply by being their first game since they won the national title and coming against the only team who beat them last year. The suspensions to Joey Bosa, Jalin Marshall, Dontre Wilson and Corey Smith add further intrigue by renewing questions of whether the Hokies could win again. This will also be the world’s first chance to see Braxton Miller in action at receiver. The absence of Marshall, Wilson and Smith means Miller could be vital in his new role.
Oregon at Michigan State (Sept. 12)
The Spartans missed the College Football Playoff last year due to two losses to teams who did make the playoff. Michigan State’s 2015 fate likely comes down to rematches against those two teams. Unlike its matchup with Ohio State, which moves from Spartan Stadium to the Horseshoe, Michigan State gets the Ducks in East Lansing this year. A win here could give the Spartans the flexibility to lose to the Buckeyes and still make the playoff.
Three key conference games
Wisconsin at Nebraska (Oct. 10)
Nebraska poses the biggest threat to Wisconsin in the Big Ten West, and with this game coming early in conference play, it could set the tone for the division race. The Cornhuskers face a more difficult road through the rest of the conference slate; they travel to Minnesota a week later and host Michigan State on Nov. 7. If they don’t win this game, they’ll have a tough time playing catch-up.
Michigan at Penn State (Nov. 21)
While the Big Ten East figures to be a two-team race this year, both of these programs appear to be on the rise and could soon challenge Ohio State and Michigan State for conference supremacy. So consider this year’s matchup between the Wolverines and Nittany Lions a battle to become the No. 1 contender to the division’s top two teams.
Michigan State at Ohio State (Nov. 21)
There’s no doubt this is the Big Ten game of the year. The Spartans appeared to have the upper hand in last year’s matchup as the higher-ranked team and playing at home. The Buckeyes’ road to the playoff began with their 49–37 upset, sparked by Barrett’s greatest performance of the season. Both teams will likely be in the playoff hunt again when they meet this year, and they could both boast undefeated records as well.
Five key questions
1. Can Ohio State live up to the hype?
Plenty of reigning champions have entered the following season as the clear favorites to win again only to fall short of such lofty expectations. Florida State did so just last year. So can a team that was thought to be a year away last year overcome complacency to win again? The Buckeyes seem to have all the pieces, and Urban Meyer may have learned his lesson from Florida’s 2009 season.
2. Can Jim Harbaugh’s off-field enthusiasm translate to on-field success?
Michigan’s highly touted new coach won the off-season with his social media presence and recruiting success. But none of that will help him win games in 2015. Harbaugh’s debut squad should have a stout defense and solid running game with De’Veon Smith, Derrick Green and Ty Isaac. But the Wolverines’ ceiling will be low if Harbaugh can’t find a solution at quarterback and improvement on an offensive line that ranked 96th in sacks allowed percentage last year.
3. Can the Big Ten continue to chip away at the SEC’s mantle?
Although rivals for financial supremacy, the SEC has held the clear upper hand on the Big Ten on the field since Florida routed Ohio State to win the 2006 national championship. The Big Ten struck its first major blow back at the SEC last year when Ohio State took down Alabama in the Sugar Bowl before beating Oregon in the national title game. That was part of a postseason that saw the Big Ten claim a second New Year’s Six bowl victory courtesy of Michigan State as well as a second bowl victory over the SEC as Wisconsin beat Auburn in the Outback Bowl. With the SEC perceived to be on a downswing, the Big Ten has an opportunity to capitalize, beginning in nonconference play.
4. Which first-year coach will win the Big Ten West?
Unless Minnesota’s Jerry Kill has something to say about it, the winner of the West Division will almost certainly be a coach in his debut season. Both Wisconsin’s Paul Chryst and Nebraska’s Mike Riley take over programs poised to contend. Chryst will look for talented junior Corey Clement to extend Wisconsin’s legacy of running back stardom, while Riley—who, along with offensive coordinator Danny Langsdorf, knows how to build an offense through the air—has a strong arm to work with in Tommy Armstrong.
5. Is this the year Penn State puts its sanctions behind it?
The Nittany Lions are no longer under NCAA sanctions from the Jerry Sandusky scandal, but as USC can concur, the harm of the sanctions can linger long after they’ve officially been phased out. Penn State swooned in 2014 (though still won a bowl game) as its lack of depth, especially on the offensive line, caused the offense to struggle. But a premier defense led by star defensive tackle Anthony Zettel provides hope for a breakthrough 2015 campaign—as long as quarterback Christian Hackenberg gets the protection he needs to rebound.