2024 Super Bowl LVIII Predictions: MMQB Staff Picks for Chiefs-49ers
Super Bowl LVIII is finally here. After 18 weeks of regular season games and a loaded playoff slate, the NFL world has descended onto Las Vegas for the final countdown.
Going into the postseason, our writers and editors were unanimous in predicting the Big Game matchup, taking the No. 1 seeds across the board. And yet Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs proved otherwise, taking the playoffs by storm to beat the Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens en route to their fourth Super Bowl in five years. Andy Reid’s roster will face a loaded San Francisco 49ers team that has put together two come-from-behind wins to set up a Super Bowl LIV rematch.
Our staff skews toward one team—and one quarterback—in this weekend’s picks, but there’s still plenty of arguments to be made otherwise, too. Below is everyone’s prediction for the winner, final score and MVP.
Purdy will go head-to-head with the best quarterback of this generation.
Kelley L Cox/USA TODAY Sports (left); Geoff Burke/USA TODAY Sports (right)
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Here’s who will be making the predictions:
Albert Breer, senior NFL reporter
Conor Orr, senior writer
Michael Rosenberg, senior writer
Matt Verderame, staff writer
Gilberto Manzano, staff writer
Greg Bishop, senior writer
Andrew Brandt, business of football columnist
John Pluym, managing editor
Claire Kuwana, editor
Albert Breer
Kansas City Chiefs 31, San Francisco 49ers 27
MVP: Patrick Mahomes
For me, Super Bowl XLIX was the point where I stopped picking against Tom Brady. The New England Patriots’ drought of 10 Super Bowls had come to an end. He’d erased the Seattle Seahawks’ dominance in the first two-and-a-half quarters of the game. And he did it against a generational defense. That, by the way, was Brady’s 15th season as a pro. I’ve arrived at the point quicker with Mahomes—in the AFC title game, I picked the Baltimore Ravens, even if I was leery of how Mahomes’s ability as an eraser, similar to Brady’s, would put that pick in peril. Sure enough, Kansas City’s quarterback took control early in the game, forcing a tone and tenor that took Baltimore (the team, not just the defense) out of its element. Three hours later Mahomes was hoisting his fourth Lamar Hunt Trophy. So I could give you the reasons the Niners should win, and there are a lot of them. But I can’t get the lingering thought out of my head that even if San Francisco plays great, Mahomes can, and probably will, find a way to erase it in the end. Sort of like he did the last time these two met on the game’s biggest stage.
Conor Orr
San Francisco 49ers 37, Kansas City Chiefs 24
MVP: Deebo Samuel
The Chiefs are the best tackling secondary in the NFL ... but what if they weren’t for one day? Imagine the 49ers come into this game with an edge after a week of miserable practice conditions and simply pound the Chiefs in a way we haven’t seen all year. These games always hinge on a bit of well-timed physicality, and they also reject some of the narratives we build up over the course of the playoffs. Right now, San Francisco looks vulnerable and somewhat soft. Right now, the Chiefs look unbreakable on defense. All of that can change in an instant. And it will Sunday.
Michael Rosenberg
Kansas City Chiefs 30, San Francisco 49ers 13
MVP: Travis Kelce
Brock Purdy is a great story and a good quarterback, but if you look closely, you’ll see that he has dominated the league’s worst pass defenses and avoided most of the best ones. Purdy’s performance in the 49ers’ NFC championship comeback does not make him the next Joe Montana; it makes him a quarterback who faced the 2023 Detroit Lions. The Chiefs defense presents the kind of test that Purdy hasn’t faced since the 49ers saw the Ravens in December, and that game went as poorly as possible for Purdy. My prediction, after poring through all the available data: The 49ers will win the toss, elect to defer, and immediately give up a touchdown to Mahomes. Kyle Shanahan will try to lean on the run early to let his young quarterback settle in, but as Reid will explain after the game: “I’ve seared a few steaks in my day. What was your question?” In other words: He’ll be ready for it. San Francisco will punt, Kansas City will score again, and by the end of the night, Shanahan will call a timeout just to imagine how well Kirk Cousins would have played. Mahomes will be the best player on the field, but Kelce will receive 98% of the fan vote and win MVP.
Matt Verderame
Kansas City Chiefs 30, San Francisco 49ers 17
MVP: Patrick Mahomes
The 49ers were the better team throughout the season, but the Chiefs are the best team right now. Kansas City has seemingly found its offense with Mahomers heavily relying on Kelce, Isiah Pacheco and Rashee Rice. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has also emerged from a season-long slog to make three key catches over the past two weeks in wins over the Ravens and Bills.
Meanwhile, Kansas City has one of the NFL’s best defenses, finishing second this season in both sacks and pressure rate. It also has a pair of All-Pro level corners in L’Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie, two guys who can play zone and man, blitz and tackle. The duo combined for 120 solo tackles, with 60 apiece. Combine the talent with coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s scheme, and it adds up to a long day for Purdy and the San Francisco offense, which has gotten off to slow starts in each of its playoff games.
The Niners are a terrific team, but the Chiefs are about to become a dynastic one.
Gilberto Manzano
San Francisco 49ers 33, Kansas City Chiefs 30
MVP: Christian McCaffrey
Knowing that Purdy has to face a vaunted Chiefs defense that just made Lamar Jackson look ordinary in the AFC title game was nearly enough for me to take Kansas City over San Francisco. But Purdy has proven he can overcome early struggles after leading the 49ers to come-from-behind postseason victories against the Green Bay Packers and Lions. Purdy has the poise, mobility and conviction to push the ball downfield with his many weapons. If he’s able to protect the football, the Chiefs might not have enough defenders to cover all of San Francisco’s stars, including Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey. But a few pass-catchers will likely be taken away from the game plan as Kansas City has the best cornerback duo in the league with Sneed and McDuffie. It will be on Shanahan to expose the Chiefs’ weaknesses and guide Purdy in the right direction. As for the 49ers’ defense, they’re going to need their stacked defensive front to shake off a somewhat disappointing season and consistently apply pressure on Mahomes, which is easier said than done. There are many intriguing matchups in this star-studded Super Bowl, but this one might come down to which Purdy shows up in Las Vegas: The hero from the NFC postseason, or the second-year quarterback who couldn’t adjust against the Ravens’ and Browns’ defenses earlier in the season?
Greg Bishop
Kansas City Chiefs 31, San Francisco 49ers 28
MVP: Patrick Mahomes
I went back and forth on this 100 times. Going into this postseason, the title felt more up for grabs than usual. There was one dominant team in each conference—San Francisco and Baltimore, respectively—and there were a bunch of teams that had gone on torrid stretches at various points throughout 2023. What I struggled with was how every team, including the dominant ones, had gone through/experienced/confronted rough stretches this season. Games where they didn’t play well. Games where injuries took too much away. They all seemed fallible, each and every team. I figured whichever one got hot at the end would win. To that end, I think the Chiefs are that team. Part of me wonders if the 49ers didn’t line up an ideal postseason, with a tough game, huge comeback and tons of resilience fueling a performance that will be closer to what San Francisco looked like earlier this season. But the Chiefs are the hotter team, and they have won three games this postseason with cold, clinical precision. They also have Patrick Mahomes. You can forget about the MVP voting, his statistics or anything beyond the obvious: He’s the single best and most valuable football player on the planet. So while I could see this one going either way, I also see no reason to bet against Kansas City. Or Mahomes. Or recent history. Thus the Chiefs are the pick here.
Andrew Brandt
Kansas City Chiefs 23, San Francisco 49ers 13
MVP: Patrick Mahomes
My overriding feeling about these Super Bowl teams up until this point in the playoffs has been this: (1) the 49ers are extremely lucky to be here, having beaten two NFC North teams on their home field that they absolutely should not have beaten, and (2) the playoff Chiefs are considerably better than the regular season Chiefs, a completely different team that lost to the Las Vegas Raiders on Christmas Day.
Maybe things will change Sunday and the 49ers will find themselves playing well for more than the fourth quarter of the game. Maybe the Chiefs will revert to the struggling regular season Chiefs. But I think not. The much-vaunted 49ers offense will be muted by the underrated Chiefs defense, which not only tackles well but has a swagger that defines them more than the 49ers defense. I think there will be turnovers on both sides, and even some sloppy play, but the Chiefs will do enough—as they have in all their winning—to win an ugly game.
And as there are in many Super Bowls, there will be other players deserving of the MVP. I am guessing Chris Jones and Justin Reid will be this year’s. But for Mahomes not to win this MVP in a Chiefs win would be well, as against the odds as possible in a city defined by gambling.
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John Pluym
Kansas City Chiefs 28, San Francisco 49ers 24
MVP: Patrick Mahomes
I’ve always been a big admirer of athletes who can will their teams to victory. Michael Jordan and Tom Brady were masters at elevating the players around them to get the most out of them. And Mahomes is no different. Despite the Chiefs’ offense struggling throughout the season, Mahomes has found a way to get his team to the Super Bowl with wins on the road over the Bills and Ravens. To me, that puts him on par with Brady, who got the Patriots to the Big Game more than once by going on the road. Mahomes has also played with a less-than-stellar receiving group, along with a Hall of Fame tight end who didn’t play at a Hall of Fame level until the playoffs. Still, I expect Mahomes to find a way against the 49ers defense, which has been mediocre at best in playoff wins over the Packers and Lions. If the game comes down to one of the quarterbacks having to make a play or execute a game-winning drive to win the Super Bowl, my money is on Mahomes, not Purdy. And my money is on Reid to put his quarterback in position to execute that play or drive. A win Sunday should solidify a Chiefs dynasty with three Super Bowl wins over a five-year period.
Claire Kuwana
Kansas City Chiefs 24, San Francisco 49ers 21
MVP: Patrick Mahomes
I really wish I could go with the 49ers here. (I’ve been wrong on nearly every postseason pick thus far, though, so in a backward way, you’re welcome, San Francisco fans.) The big difference between these two teams is this: The Chiefs almost always excel under pressure, while the Niners are no strangers to crumbling in big moments. Kansas City, put simply, has the advantage Sunday in that it doesn’t carry the same burden to win that San Francisco does. And I’m always hesitant to bet against Mahomes, who is nearly unstoppable when it comes to winning titles. Had Kelce been playing the way he had all regular season, maybe my pick would have been different, but ultimately, the two of them, when at their best, are an unparalleled duo that can rival even the most loaded of rosters. Lastly, the way Spagnuolo’s defensive unit was able to limit the Ravens two weeks ago is proof enough that Purdy, despite his best efforts to show off, scramble and come back, will falter against his biggest test yet. We have to remember, beyond the Mahomes shadow, Kansas City’s defense is the reason the team is in this position at all—it’s only right it’ll be a driving force behind this championship, too. And, because someone has to mention it, this will be Taylor Swift’s 13th game she has attended this season … anyone who knows the power of Swift ($331.5 million, anyone?) knows that’s a good sign for the Chiefs.
