Super Bowl 2024 Film Study: How Chiefs, 49ers Will Attack Each Other
This week has been, and will continue to be, dominated by two names: Patrick Mahomes and Christian McCaffrey.
For the San Francisco 49ers to win Super Bowl LVIII, they need to slow down Mahomes. And for the Kansas City Chiefs to walk away with their third Vince Lombardi Trophy in five years, they’ll need to contain McCaffrey, the league’s rushing leader in the regular season. All of this is both noted and obvious.
But what else must happen for each side? What are the other portions of the game that could decide the outcome?
Let’s take a look at two plays from the postseason that could portend the winner of this Super Bowl in Las Vegas.
Brock Purdy must deal with the Kansas City blitz
If Purdy and the Niners are going to defeat the Chiefs, it starts with handling blitzes.
San Francisco loves to operate out of condensed formations, and we see one below. The 49ers were trailing 7–0 in the first quarter of the NFC title game and were facing third-and-9. The Lions came out in a nickel look (Kansas City would probably deploy its dime package) and showed man coverage across the board.
As you can see from the first two pictures, San Francisco tight end George Kittle (No. 85) goes in motion from left to right, taking linebacker Alex Anzalone (No. 34) with him. That demonstrated to Purdy that it was man coverage, as the Niners went from a 3-by-1 to a balanced look.
Screenshot from NFL+ all-22
Screenshot from NFL+ all-22
On the snap, the Lions have safety Kerby Joseph (No. 31) drop into a single-high formation. It’s Cover 1 man across the board, with Detroit defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn bringing an extra rusher. The idea is to have Josh Paschal (No. 93) crash hard to the center’s right side, providing star pass-rusher Aidan Hutchinson (No. 97) with a one-on-one against right tackle Colton McKivitz (No. 68).
However, 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan put Kittle in motion to Hutchinson’s side, largely to help chip. With Hutchinson having lined up in a wide-nine look, Kittle had an easy angle and essentially turned this blitz into a standard pressure with Hutchinson being neutralized.
Screenshot from NFL+ all-22
Screenshot from NFL+ all-22
Even with Hutchinson out of the play, the Lions still got moderate pressure up the middle. However, it wasn’t close to enough. The coverage was solid downfield, but Purdy had time to step up and find receiver Brandon Aiyuk (No. 11) singled up against corner Cameron Sutton (No. 1). That’s a mismatch, and Purdy delivered a strike for a first down on the boundary.
Screenshot from NFL+ all-22
Against the Chiefs, San Francisco will likely see a ton of dime looks on second- and third-and-longs. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will also blitz relentlessly with his secondary, sometimes bringing six rushers. This is because Spagnuolo has strong belief in his corners, specifically All-Pro Trent McDuffie and budding star L’Jarius Sneed.
Shanahan must continue helping his offensive line with chips and doubles, while Purdy shows this type of ball placement.
49ers must deal with Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice with their zones
It’s no secret the 49ers like to play single-high zone defense. More often than not, coordinator Steve Wilks will have San Francisco in a Cover 3 scheme with seven defenders dropping into coverage.
Against the Chiefs, that’s both a good and bad way to live.
In one sense, it provides seven coverage players, giving the 49ers different ways to double Kelce and Rice. Kansas City has struggled to get anybody else established in the passing game this year, so Wilks could try to bracket both using a combination of safeties, linebackers and corners.
However, if the four-man rush doesn’t get home against the Chiefs’ front, it could be a major issue. Mahomes is a brilliant quarterback and his acumen is matched by coach Andy Reid, one of the defining schemers of his generation. Zone is an easier type of defense to play against, as Reid can hone in on one player and put him into conflict.
On this play from the AFC divisional round against the Buffalo Bills, we see such a situation. It was the second quarter and Kansas City was trailing 10–6. Buffalo, much like San Francisco, loves zone coverage. However, the Bills prefer to play a two-deep look. On this play, though, they went with Cover 3.
Much like the 49ers, the Chiefs are a heavy pre-snap motion team. We see it here, as receiver Mecole Hardman (No. 12) goes from right to left. The motion creates a 3-by-1 to the field side of the formation. Note Kansas City is in 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends), which it has thrived in this postseason both running and passing out of.
Screenshot from NFL+ all-22
Screenshot from NFL+ all-22
On the snap, the Bills are already in trouble. Safety Micah Hyde (No. 23) is playing single-high, but he’s opposite the strong side of the formation. While Hyde is running to adjust, Kansas City has Hardman run a quick out while tight end Noah Gray (No. 83) sits down underneath.
These routes occupy three defenders, including corners Taron Johnson (No. 7) and Dane Jackson (No. 30), and safety Jordan Poyer (No. 21). Johnson and Poyer are playing Gray’s stick route, while Jackson is forced to handle Hardman.
The result is Kelce being wide open on a corner route as Mahomes hits the top of his drop.
Screenshot from NFL+ all-22
Screenshot from NFL+ all-22
For the Niners, this is something they’ll have to contend with throughout Super Bowl Sunday. The Chiefs love to play out of two-tight sets, and will go to three-tight looks as well. Furthermore, Reid dials up plenty of 3-by-1 sets, either to isolate the backside receiver and force a one-on-one, or to create confusion out of the bunch.
