2025 NFL Divisional Round Good, Bad and Ugly: Rams Pull Off Epic Win in Chicago

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Good: Rams show resilience in epic win over Bears
Bad: How does anybody who missed the game feel
Ugly: The conversation about going for it on fourth down
Good: New England’s defense is one worth praising
Bad: C.J. Stroud being the worst version of himself
Ugly: The offensive showings in the AFC playoffs
Good: Broncos’ defense thrives in massive moments
Bad: The feeling in Buffalo after another gut-punch postseason loss
Ugly: Josh Allen needed to be much better for the Bills
Good: Seattle looks like the NFL’s best team
Bad: The chances for any team trying to run on Seattle
Ugly: All the injuries that robbed the 49ers of a chance

Going into divisional weekend, there were seven games remaining this season. Now, we’re down to three.

The Rams will travel to Seattle next Sunday to play the Seahawks in the NFC championship game at 3 p.m. ET at Lumen Field. The Patriots will also be on the road against the Broncos in the AFC championship game, scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET at Empower Field at Mile High.

On Saturday, the Bills and Broncos played an instant classic in Denver, with the home side winning 33–30 in overtime on Wil Lutz’s 23-yard field goal. Josh Allen committed four turnovers, including two interceptions, one of which proved the final play of his 2025 season. The Broncos now advance to the AFC championship game for the first time since 2015, when they went on to win Super Bowl 50.

However, they will be doing it without quarterback Bo Nix, who fractured a bone in his ankle in the final moments of overtime. With Nix sidelined for the rest of the season, Jarrett Stidham is in line to start.

“On the second-to-last play in overtime, Bo fractured a bone in his right ankle,” Broncos coach Sean Payton said after the game. “He’s scheduled to have surgery Tuesday of this week, which will put him out for the rest of the season. [Backup Jarrett] Stidham is ready to go.”

Meanwhile, the NFC gave us a classic of its own with the Rams thwarting the Bears in overtime, 20–17. The game also gave us the play of the year when Caleb Williams found Cole Kmet for an impossible 14-yard touchdown pass, thrown from the 40-yard line after an elongated scramble.

Somehow, Los Angeles regrouped and won its second consecutive road playoff game, giving itself a date with the Seahawks, who pummeled the injury-ravaged 49ers, 41–6. Seattle rushed for 175 yards, and Kenneth Walker III scored three times, while the defense limited Christian McCaffrey to 74 total yards.

In the other AFC tilt, the Patriots beat the Texans 28–16 in a turnover-filled affair, with Drake Maye throwing for three touchdowns while also tossing a pick and fumbling four times (two lost). However, Maye still outplayed C.J. Stroud, who committed five turnovers, including four interceptions.

But we start with Los Angeles, which is back in the NFC title game and looking to win its rubber match against the Seahawks.

Good: Rams show resilience in epic win over Bears

There’s nothing that can prepare you for that sort of haymaker. Caleb Williams drifted back 20 yards, threw off his back foot, and heaved a prayer on fourth-and-4 with 27 seconds remaining. Cole Kmet answered his prayer. Tie game. Bedlam at Soldier Field.

But instead of folding in the cold as so many teams would have, the Rams hung tough. And after punting to begin overtime, Los Angeles found more fortitude when safety Kam Curl intercepted Williams, who threw three on the night, giving the offense one more chance.

From there, Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua and Davante Adams did their thing before kicker Harrison Mevis did his from 42 yards out for the winning points.

But for the Rams, this is more than a win. It’s a moment. Los Angeles hasn’t played well since losing in Week 16’s classic to the Seahawks. They fell the following week to Atlanta and then staggered through ugly wins in Week 18 against the Cardinals and, on wild-card weekend, against the Panthers.

This game wasn’t perfect. Stafford completed only 20-of-42 attempts. The Rams ran for 3.6 yards per carry. Sean McVay called a bizarre game. But in the end, Los Angeles walked out of Chicago beaming, believing anything is possible.

Bad: How does anybody who missed the game feel

Certain games demand water-cooler talk the next day, regardless of what city you’re in or who played the night prior.

The Rams-Bears contest was a fantastic game. Los Angeles took the lead midway through the fourth quarter and then authored a goal-line stand, only to see Williams tie the game on the most improbable play in recent memory.

Then, in overtime, Chicago got a stop and had its chance, 15 yards from at least attempting a Cairo Santos field goal. Instead, Kam Curl intercepted Williams before the Rams marched 54 yards in 10 plays for the game-winning field goal.

This wasn’t just one of the best divisional round games in the past decade or so. It was one of the best divisional round games of all time.

Ugly: The conversation about going for it on fourth down

Ben Johnson didn’t live in fear. In the Bears’ two postseason games, Johnson attempted 12
fourth-down conversions, including six in both contests.

Some, like the Kmet touchdown, were necessary. Others were questionable. On Sunday, Johnson thrice went on fourth down in the first half while in field goal range. One time, Williams was picked off. The second was a touchdown pass. The third was a run-stuff at the Rams’ 32-yard line.

It’s easy to second-guess, and perhaps even appropriate. If Johnson kicks the field goals in all those spots (and Santos hits them), the Bears have nine points instead of seven and conceivably win the game. But Johnson decided to gamble as he usually does, and ended up with mixed results.

The league is moving further and further toward aggression on fourth down, but one wonders whether it’s crossing the line from aggressive to reckless. On a night when points were at a premium, Johnson continued to roll the proverbial dice. It proved successful once in the early going, but overall, it probably cost Chicago more than it needed to.

Patriots safety Craig Woodson (31) celebrates an interception in the second half against the Texans in New England's divisional win on Sunday. | Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

Good: New England’s defense is one worth praising

Most of the week was spent giving acclaim to the Texans’ top-ranked defense, but the Patriots have proved they know a little something about that side of the ball, too.

After allowing only three points in their wild-card win over the Chargers last week, New England produced five takeaways, including four interceptions of C.J. Stroud in a 28–16 win. Houston did little offensively, with the Patriots allowing only 48 rushing yards (2.2 yards per carry) and 3.3 yards per play on the afternoon.

While New England doesn’t have household names on defense, save for corner Christian Gonzalez and its pair of defensive tackles in Christian Barmore and Milton Williams, the unit has gelled in coach Mike Vrabel’s first year. Despite being without coordinator Terrell Williams, who has been fighting cancer, the Patriots were the league’s ninth-ranked defense in the regular season by EPA per play (-0.11).

With the Broncos being forced to start Jarrett Stidham in next week’s AFC title game due to Bo Nix’s broken ankle, the Patriots have a terrific chance at another strong defensive showing. If they get one, they could represent the AFC in Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara, Calif.

Bad: C.J. Stroud being the worst version of himself

The Texans needed Stroud to not lose the game, and he failed in spectacular fashion.

Houston allowed only 248 total yards and 13 first downs, yet still lost because Stroud continuously put the Texans in brutal positions. His second interception was returned for a touchdown by Marcus Jones, giving New England a 14–10 lead in the second quarter. Incredibly, the Patriots only scored off that turnover, but Stroud’s recklessness snuffed out one drive after the next. He finished 20-of-47 for 212 yards, an average of 4.5 yards per attempt.

While Stroud was hamstrung without star receiver Nico Collins (concussion) before also losing tight end Dalton Schultz (calf) in the first half, his play was unacceptable for a team with designs on advancing.

In the postseason, Stroud recorded five interceptions and five fumbles (two lost) between last Monday’s win over the Steelers and Sunday’s loss at Foxborough, putting forth questions about Houston’s ceiling with him under center.

Of course, the Texans will pick up his fifth-year option this offseason and attempt to surround him with a better supporting cast, especially the offensive line. But Stroud had the league’s top defense at his disposal this year and squandered it, playing careless football when smart decisions and conservatism were the correct play.

Ugly: The offensive showings in the AFC playoffs

It has not been an inspiring two weeks of play for AFC offenses.

Last week, Stroud fumbled five times against the Steelers, and the Texans still won because Pittsburgh suffered both a pick-six and a scoop-and-score in a 30–6 blowout defeat. The Patriots have won twice, despite Drake Maye committing four turnovers and a cumulative line of 33-of-56 for 447 yards while taking 10 sacks.

Then there was Bo Nix throwing for 6.1 YPA and an interception in the same game that Josh Allen committed four turnovers in a wild 33–30 overtime win for the Broncos.

If New England or Denver don’t start playing better offensively (something which will be tough for the Broncos without Nix), either will be in a rough spot, regardless of who represents the NFC.

Good: Broncos’ defense thrives in massive moments

The Broncos struggled to stop the Bills all night. They didn’t force a punt. They allowed 449 yards on 5.8 yards per play. Josh Allen accounted for 349 yards while James Cook II ran wild with 117 yards on 24 carries.

And yet, Denver found a way to win primarily because its defense continually gave the offense advantageous positions. The Broncos forced five turnovers, all of which were massive.

The first came with Buffalo driving for a score already leading 7–3, when Cook fumbled deep in Denver territory. The next was a Josh Allen interception, which led to a field goal. Then, on the penultimate play of the first half, Allen fumbled on a reckless scramble, resulting in three more points for the Broncos.

The final takeaway was a brilliant interception in overtime by Ja’Quan McMillian, turning an easy Bills field goal attempt for the win into a possession for the Broncos. From there, Bo Nix drove Denver 75 yards in six plays for Lutz’s game-winner.

In a game when the Broncos’ defense was a sieve on so many plays, they made the biggest plays when it mattered most.

Bad: The feeling in Buffalo after another gut-punch postseason loss

Everyone in Buffalo has to be sick. If they aren’t, they don’t know the score of the game yet.

For the seventh consecutive year, the Bills made the playoffs. For the seventh consecutive year, they failed to reach the Super Bowl. This failure is especially galling as Buffalo’s bogeyman, Patrick Mahomes, didn’t make the playoffs. Instead of having to beat Mahomes and a team that knocked Buffalo out in four of the past five seasons, the Bills needed to beat Bo Nix and a slightly favored Broncos team to reach the conference title game. They failed to do it.

At some point, one wonders what Buffalo has to do. The Bills have been so close for so long with a generational talent at quarterback, and the results haven’t been there in January. The offseason brings a host of questions, including how general manager Brandon Beane can add some perimeter weapons and fix Buffalo’s 28th-ranked run defense.

But for now, the feeling in Buffalo is despair, which has become all too familiar with this version of the Bills come playoff time.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen — Bills quarterback Josh Allen couldn't rescue Buffalo, which committed five turnovers against the Broncos in its AFC divisional loss on Saturday. | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Ugly: Josh Allen needed to be much better for the Bills

Allen passed for 283 yards and three touchdowns, along with 66 rushing yards, but his miscues cost the Bills a chance to move on.

The reigning MVP had four turnovers, including one of the more confounding ones in recent memory when he fumbled at the end of the first half with no upside to note. In a game where Buffalo’s defense gave the Bills a chance to win, Allen and the offense made too many errors to get it done.

For Buffalo, things will only get more challenging. The Chiefs will likely bounce back. The same is true for the Ravens and their next coach. The Patriots look like they could be AFC East contenders for the foreseeable future under Mike Vrabel. Then there’s Buffalo’s roster, which is projected to be $11.6 million over the cap this winter, with the only likely, big-savings cut to be tight end Dawson Knox.

Next season, Allen will be 30. He’s entering the conversation for the greatest quarterback never to win the Super Bowl. At this point, he’s already toward the top of any list naming greats to never reach Super Sunday, alongside Lamar Jackson, Dan Fouts, Warren Moon and others.

It’s not a list Allen wants to be on. And if both he and the Bills are ever going to reach their ultimate goal, his mistakes have to be far more limited.

Good: Seattle looks like the NFL’s best team

The Seahawks have done nothing but prove themselves over the past month. In Week 16 against the Rams, in a game for the NFC West lead and the NFC’s top seed, Seattle overcame a 30–14, fourth-quarter deficit to win in overtime. Two weeks later, in another game with the NFC West and home-field advantage on the line, Seattle dominated the 49ers, 13–3.

On Saturday, the Seahawks made their loudest statement yet. Spending the morning concerned about whether quarterback Sam Darnold could play due to an injured oblique, Seattle pounded San Francisco in every way.

The Seahawks held the 49ers to 236 total yards, had a 1.5 yards per play advantage and did it all with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Rashid Shaheed and Zach Charbonnet combining for 66 offensive yards.

Of course, Shaheed can’t be ignored for his impact on special teams. In the aforementioned game against the Rams, Shaheed sparked the comeback with a punt-return touchdown. In the divisional round, Shaheed ran 95 yards with the opening kickoff for a score.

If Seattle plays like this going forward, it’ll win its second Super Bowl.

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy — Seattle's defense was all over 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy during its rout of San Francisco on Saturday night. | Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

Bad: The chances for any team trying to run on Seattle

If a team tries to beat the Seahawks by pounding the ball, best of luck to them.

Seattle led the league in the regular season, allowing only 3.7 yards per carry, and continued to dominate in the divisional round. San Francisco amassed six points while rushing for only 64 yards on 3.0 yards per carry by nonquarterbacks.

Through 18 games, no running back has rushed for more than 91 yards on the Seahawks, with Kyren Williams doing that in Week 11. Of course, Williams could be the familiar face Seattle sees next Sunday with a Super Bowl appearance on the line, against a Rams team that had a rushing success rate this season of more than 50%.

Regardless, nobody has done a better job of turning opponents into a one-dimensional attack. It’s been a winning strategy for coach Mike Macdonald and his defense.

Ugly: All the injuries that robbed the 49ers of a chance

Maybe the Seahawks would have rolled the 49ers no matter what. Maybe San Francisco was going to be a speed bump for a better team, even with a healthy roster. We’ll never know.

The Niners have spent the entire season as the walking wounded. They’ve been without Brandon Aiyuk all year, and both Nick Bosa and Fred Warner for most of the season. In the playoffs, they were also without George Kittle for the final six quarters after he tore his Achilles in the wild-card round. Additionally, Ricky Pearsall, Trent Williams, Brock Purdy and others missed ample time this season.

Of course, injuries and the test of depth is a part of NFL life. But for San Francisco to win 12 games and reach the final eight even with those challenges is something worth remembering. It’s also correct to marvel at the job done by Kyle Shanahan, who even with two Super Bowl appearances on his résumé could claim this season as his best work.

The Niners, like every team, have many questions facing them this offseason. But provided San Francisco retains its core, it should be back once again.