UFC 244 Preview: Which Fighters Should You Bet on?

Saturday night. Madison Square Garden. President Donald Trump tentatively in attendance. The Rock flying in to present the “BMF” belt to the winner. Jorge Masvidal vs Nate Diaz. Stacked under card. Let’s go!

Saturday, Nov. 2 AT 10:00 p.m. ET

BROADCAST: PPV Prelims: ESPN

VENUE: Madison Square Garden

LOCATION: New York City

MATCHES: 12

(Hit me up on Twitter at @Y2CASEY if you want to chat about any matchup in more detail.)

WELTERWEIGHT 170

#3 JORGE MASVIDAL 34-13 (-160) VS #6 NATE DIAZ 20-11 (+140)

As a fan of MMA since the beginning, I have to say what an unlikely main event to get so much hype as it is, even if you go back just a year or two. But here we are, and we (literally everyone) are hyped and ready to see how this one goes down, as No. 3 Jorge Masvidal takes on #6 Nate Diaz for stakes of a $50,000 belt to the winner of Saturday night’s main event. Rewind a year or so, Jorge Masvidal was sprinkling close decisions mixed with an occasional stoppage, fighting mid-tier guys with little fight card hype, but something quickly changed. A close split decision loss to Demian Maia, followed by another decision loss to Stephen Thompson just may have sparked something in this lifelong fighter, who comes from the streets, fighting in backyards a la Kimbo Slice.

Masvidal seems recommitted, or should I say fully committed to committing to this game 100%, and the results showed. He flatlined Darren Till in Liverpool, in a fight that looked to be set up for Till to win in front of his hometown fans. Following this was the fastest finish in UFC history, where he slept Ben Askren in a record five seconds. Talk about momentum. On the other side, Nate Diaz took three years off, after getting paid for fighting Conor McGregor two consecutive times, splitting those, then making his return against former champ Anthony Showtime Pettis back in August. Diaz looked like he hadn’t been gone at all, and really put on a clinic against Pettis, resulting in a wide decision victory, where he post-fight famously stated that he wanted to put “his belt” on the line against Masvidal.

So who wins? My take is this. Nate Diaz is one of the best fighters in the division, yet will never hold the true championship title. He has exposed weaknesses, but is as gritty as they come, and will continue to press forward literally until his corner has to throw in a towel. The guy has a ton of scar tissue and typically bleeds when touched, which at times can sway some judges. He’s a wild striker and throws at a considerable output, but at times ineffectively. He has the ability to stay in his opponents face at the distance he desires, which as we’ve seen eventually causes some of his opponents to break, where the fight turns to Diaz’s favor. He’s a submission machine, but typically these spots come with him on his back, or while on the defense. When he takes shots, he visibly becomes unbalanced, which allows his opponents the opportunity to move in and out when they want. An edge he will have is his gas tank.

We haven’t seen Masvidal go full speed for an entire fight, but lately we haven’t even had the chance. Masvidal has a history or being a more low output fighter, picking his spots, which are typically are much more less than his opponents. This is where the judges have sided with his foes in those uber-close splits. An increase in activity will be key for Masvidal, and I have to question if this new version of him as a reborn fighter is what we will get, again we just haven’t had the chance as he's finished his last two fights. I know his team has worked with him even before this fight in pushing the pace, and being the offensive guy in the later rounds (3, 4, 5). This will be a tough test, though, if we get there, as Diaz has literally been TKO’d just once across 31 fights. Something with Masvidal though, is that he really has the ability to adapt as the fight goes on, rather than fold, where Pettis did last go around with Diaz. Diaz will throw more shots in there, mixing front kicks and flailing shots, sprinkled with his jab, while Masvidal will be the more technical striker, with a chin to boot. I expect to see the large majority of this fight standing, with Masvidal exposing the scar tissue of Diaz early on, and creating more pressure than we typically see opponents of Diaz give. Case in point, when we look at Pettis in comparison to Masvidal, Diaz’s last opponent and Saturday night:

Saturday night it is no mystery what we will see from Diaz. He will come forward, throw constantly, and have a tank to last beyond five rounds if that was a thing. What we don’t know though, is what will we exactly see from Masvidal. The fact that he went into hostile territory, and slept Darren Till, and followed that with the Askren highlight, could work actually to his advantage, only if he, himself, doesn’t get sucked into the recency bias and fight week media overdose. If anyone can hang with Diaz, I believe its Masvidal, and I also believe he wants to prove it to himself, for himself, and those that have made a positive influence, in the road to getting him here. I believe he has a very smart team behind him, and we saw just that last July with what occurred against Askren. Saturday night we all win, and both guys will have their shining spots, with Masvidal coming out victorious in the end.

PREDICTION: JORGE MASVIDAL

MIDDLEWEIGHT 185

#4 KELVIN GASTELUM 16-4 (-210) VS #9 DARREN TILL 17-2-1 (+175)

Interesting drama at the weigh-ins, as Darren Till, who was major late with his flights, touched down just in time for the Friday weigh-ins, made weight with ease. Kelvin Gastelum, meanwhile, is under investigation for touching/leaning on his coach while on the scale, where folks are point to the fact that it could have been the reason he came in under the limit. Nonsense in my book. Kelvin was good, and both guys look ready as ever to put on a show. Till making the move up a weight class after getting finished in two straight against Woodley and Masvidal, who bounced his head off the canvas in a nasty KO in front of Till’s hometown crowd. Gastelum is also coming off a loss, when he faced Adesanya back in April, where he had his spots and hurt the current champ, but eventually took just too much, which resulted in a decision victory in a fight that could have been stopped. In this fight, both guys have great standup, and it will be interesting to see as both are southpaws, which will be unique in comparison to past opponents. The difference-maker in my opinion will be Kelvin’s ability to mix in some takedowns and level changes, which will catch Till off guard, resulting in either a decision victory for Gastelum, or a shot where he will catch Till off guard looking to defend low, but getting caught upstairs.

PREDICTION: KELVIN GASTELUM

WELTERWEIGHT 170

#8 STEPHEN THOMPSON 14-4-1 (-135) VS #14 VICENTE LUQUE 17-6-1 (+115)

Battle of the nicest guy belt? Wonderboy is back but faces a very dangerous Vicente Luque, who has a huge opportunity here to jump the ranks with a win Saturday night. Luque is riding a six-fight win streak, with five of those wins via finish. He’s a problem, and dangerous across all three rounds at any given point. Stephen Thompson is a very established fighter, going 58-0 in kickboxing, prior to making the move to MMA, where he’s 14-4. Most recently, Thompson lost his first fight via KO, though he’s taken some big shots throughout his recent fights which has to play mentally. Thompson has lost two straight, although if you’ve watched its truly one, as he beat Darren Till at UFC 130 in Liverpool, but was all class as the screw job was in effect for the hometown guy. I believe Luque will have enough output and walk forward just enough to cause some issues for Thompson, who typically controls the range, with his side stance and ability to throw a mix of kicks and punches, scoring at will. A number of folks I respect are taking Thompson, but I cannot trust his chin yet against a guy who has finished opponents in 15 of his 17 wins, and five of his last six.

PREDICTION: VICENTE LUQUE

HEAVYWEIGHT 265

#5 DERRICK LEWIS 21-7 (+105) VS #8 BLAGOY IVANOV 18-2 (-125)

Derrick Lewis is back after knee surgery, after repairing a tore ACL. Lewis is the power puncher in this match and throws at low volume, but when he does, it's at 100%. Ivanov is the more technical fighter on the feet, but fights with the counter for the most part. Ivanov has never been knocked out, but does take damage. The fact that he doesn’t have a high KO/TKO win finish rate himself, and the history of countering and scoring points on his way to a decision, could have this one ending up similar to Lewis/Volkov, where Lewis was losing the fight, but knocked Volkov out with seconds to go. This really is a coin flip here and I’d like to see Lewis come out guns blazin’ with that new knew of his and make a statement back to title discussion.

PREDICTION: DERRICK LEWIS

LIGHTWEIGHT 155

#10 KEVIN LEE 17-5 (+155) VS #11 GREGOR GILLESPIE 13-0 (-175)

Gillespie has started his UFC career 6-0 and has looked like a serious title contender along the way. This will be his toughest test as he faces #10 Kevin Lee, who’s moved to Tristar for this one, to train with GSP and crew. Lee has struggled in the past with the tank and mental edge when opponents take over the momentum. He’s a superb athlete and has the ability to really cause some issues for anyone, yet it’s always mysteries which version of him will show. Lee will be dropping back down to 155 for this one. We haven’t seen Gillespie really in any danger yet, and he’s finished his last five opponents, mostly part to his elite grappling. He’s a D1 national champion and four time All American and it will come into play here. Couple that with the fact that he doesn’t get hit much. He has a 1.81 SApM and a +179 differential. I like Gilliespie to frustrate Lee and keep it rolling.

PREDICTION: GREGOR GILLIESPIE

LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT 205

#7 COREY ANDERSON 12-4 (+135) VS #11 JOHNNY WALKER 17-3 (-155)

#7 Corey Anderson gets a test in the way of touted potential title contender Johnny Walker, who’s very unpredictable as we’ve seen during his tenure in the UFC. A very creative, athletic lightweight, Walker is all about pleasing the crowd starting with his flashy walkouts, to is very risky offense, ending with his wacky fight celebrations, where we saw him throw his shoulder out trying to do the worm across the octagon. Who gets injured after the fight? Anyhow, the guy is big and utilizes his speed and 82” reach like no other. Anderson on the flip side has called for his title shot in the past, yet still is in a position where he needs to validate his readiness for the shot, even after winning three straight against Latifi, Teixeira, and Cummins. Anderson is solid with the takedowns and control but does have a suspect chin. Walker has been great with the takedown defense, but doesn’t have many minutes inside the octagon to give him the shine just yet. If he’s able to keep this one standing against Anderson, I’ll give him some serious points. He’ll also take the win if he accomplishes the feat as well, potentially by finish and a Bones Jones callout.

PREDICTION: JOHNNY WALKER

FEATHERWEIGHT 145

#12 SHANE BURGOS 12-1 (-250) VS MAKWAN AMIRKHANI 15-3 (+210)

Burgos will be the better striker here with some great head movement. Shouldn’t be in much trouble on the feet, and will be the more offensive fighter. Amirkhani is mediocre with striking, comes forward open and his chin will be out there for Burgos. Amirkhani will definitely look to get this one to the mat, but should have some issues with Burgos and his 94% takedown defense. If this stays standing, it should be a clinic.

PREDICTION: SHANE BURGOS

MIDDLEWEIGHT 185

#11 BRAD TAVARES 17-5 (+110) VS #13 EDMEN SHAHBAZYAN 10-0 (-130)

Shahbazyan is only 21 years old and has looked solid in his last couple fights, finishing both Jack Marshman and Charles Byrd inside of a round, bringing his record to 10-0. This will be his biggest test in his young career as he faces #11 Brad Tavares, who as you know has fought several big names over his career. Tavares hasn’t fought in over a year, and actually is stepping up on short notice, after Krysztof Jotko withdrew. Tavares most recently fought current champ Israel Adesanya, where he was pretty much outclassed on the feet across 5 rounds. Shahbazyan has had some success mixing things up, and brings a card leading 7.71 takedown average per 15 minutes, though Tavares should be able to look a lot better than past opponents with the 77% TD defense and ability to stay composed and reverse positions. I was surprised to see Shahbazyan open at -245, and if the line was still at that price, I’d lay on the underdog with Tavares. As of post-weigh-ins, bettors have brought it down to -145, which has me more enticed. Going with the prospect in a close one.

PREDICTION: EDMEN SHAHBAZYAN

HEAVYWEIGHT 265

ANDREI ARLOVSKI 28-18 (+135) VS JAIRZINHO ROZENSTRUIK 8-0 (-155)

Rozenstruik getting a step up here after KO’ing Allen Crowder in nine seconds via a quick jab that dropped Crowder, followed up with some ground and pound back in June. Rozenstruik packs some power in his hands, and comes in with a ton of kickboxing experience, having fought 82 matches, winning 76 and 64 of those by knockout. Since entering MMA, he’s now 8-0, with 7 KO/TKOs, with six of those matches finished inside of one round. Arlovski is on his third wind of something. The guy has just a ton of high level experience, now fighting in his 20 year as a pro, and looked solid in his last fight against Ben Rothwell. Prior to that, he’s been very competitive in his recent matches, losing fairly close decisions. It was once thought that his chin was shot, as he was finished in four consecutive fights two years ago, but since has gone to the decision in his last eight matches. If Arlovski can take Rozenstruik down, it could lead to some trouble for the prospect. Arlovski will want to close the distance and clinch, and with this being done and if the fighter goes into the over rounds, expect some urgency from Rozenstruik with some increased striking output. I see Rozenstruik aka Bigi Boy, eventually hurting Arlovski via that 74% striking accuracy, though we could see him in danger himself at times.

PREDICTION: JAIRZINHO ROZENSTRUIK

WOMEN’S FLYWEIGHT 125

#1 KATLYN CHOOKAGIAN 12-2 (-160) VS #5 JENNIFER MAIA 17-5-1 (+140)

Most likely the winner gets a crack at the title after this one. Chookagian in my opinion is the rightful favorite and should be able to take this one. Although Maia probably is stronger, Chookagian has the ability to sustain the distance she wants, mixing kicks and some combos with some decent movement. Doesn’t hurt she’s from Jersey. Kaytlyn via decision followed up with a callout of the champ Shevchenko.

PREDICTION: KATLYN CHOOKAGIAN

WELTERWEIGHT 170

LYMAN GOOD 20-5 (-130) VS CHANCE RENCOUNTRE 14-3 (+110)

Lyman Good is back after getting straight worked by last weekend’s winner Demian Maia back in February, when he was submitted in just one round. Good is a power puncher, and always looking for the big shot, with little technique. He’s fairly one dimensional with his strength being on the feet, and looks to avoid the mat for the most part. Rencountre will be slightly bigger in there, and we will most likely see him mixing it up a tad more, potentially getting this to the ground while looking to control and take the fight where Good has looked the worst. If it stays standing, Rencountre will take some damage, but as we’ve seen he’s been able to grind and battle back. The guy is a great wrestler and it will be a key in this one. He’s undefeated this year, winning his last two decisively, although in both cases he’s been the dog. Here we are again. Rencountre via some grappling and a decent gas tank.

PREDICTION: CHANCE RENCOUNTRE

FEATHERWEIGHT 145

JULIO ARCE 16-3 (+110) VS HAKEEN DAWODU 10-1-1 (-130)

Not a bad fight to get the card rolling. Dawodu getting a step up in competition after winning his last three fights, against Julio Arce, who got back on track last May with a slick head kick KO against at tough opponent in Julian Erosa. Dawodu opened up as the favorite, so obviously has the eye of the oddsmakers, but also the UFC. Dawodu loves to bully his opponents and throw at a high pace along the way, proved out as he’s out struck his opponents by a margin of two to three times the volume in his last three matches, all resulting in wins. Arce isn’t bad on the feet himself, and although takes a shot to give two, has a solid chin, and has never been finished by strikes. I’m hesitant to side with the fact that Arce can win the battle on the feet, so looking for the takedown and controlling on the mat will be key if he wants to take this one. He should have the crowd in his corner as he’s fighting at home, with Dawodu making the trek in. I see this fight either going to Arce via submission, or Dawodu doing enough to sway the judges. I’ll take the latter.

PREDICTION: HAKEEN DAWODU

Worth a look on DFS:

STARS: WALKER, GILLESPIE, BURGOS

SCRUBS: LUQUE, RECOUNTRE

Betting Plays:

Masvidal -155

Gillespie -140

Recountre +100