NHL Best Bets: Islanders Look to Continue Strong Play

The Islanders are the hottest team in hockey, can they keep it up on Saturday against the Flyers?

Dennis Schneidler-USA TODAY Sports

Almost the entire NHL is in action on Saturday, as 30 of the 31 teams take the ice with start times ranging from 2 p.m. EST to 10:30 p.m. EST. Can the Lightning follow up on their nine-goal outburst when they host the Jets? The suddenly hot Blackhawks bring their offense-first system to Nashville to face off against Pekka Rinne. Also, two of the three best teams in the Eastern Conference battle when the Bruins take on the Capitals with both teams having zero days rest.

There’s plenty to wager on today, but let’s take a closer look at two games in particular. Here are my two best bets for Saturday:

Dallas Stars vs. Edmonton Oilers: Over 5.5 goals (+115)

If you just look at the surface-level stats of the two likely starting goaltenders in this game (Ben Bishop and Mike Smith), you can understand why sportsbooks are leaning heavily toward a low-scoring game. The days of seeing a total of 5 are long gone, so getting plus-odds on a 5.5 is the best you can do nowadays to make money on an over you think is projected too low.

The top-two point producers in the NHL—by a healthy margin I might add—are playing for the Oilers in this game. Leon Draisaitl leads the league with 41 points and ranks second with 15 goals. Connor McDavid is No. 2 in the NHL with 37 points. Edmonton scores an average of 3.7 goals per game at home and is averaging 4.75 goals per game in their last four games overall.

The Stars are a lower-scoring team, but see no offensive drop when they’re on the road. In fact, they’ve scored more on the road than at home this season, averaging 2.55 goals per game on the road and 2.44 goals per game at home. Dallas allows more goals on the road, to the tune of 2.64 per game as opposed to 2.00 at home. Joe Pavelski is also heating up with back-to-back two-point games. He has 53 points in 54 career games against the Oilers.

It’s the last game of a week-long road trip through Canada for the Stars. They could be looking ahead to their four-game homestand coming up. Any lapse in concentration will end up in the back of Dallas’s net with Edmonton’s top line on the ice.

New York Islanders vs. Philadelphia Flyers: Islanders (-110)

The Islanders are the hottest team in hockey with a 12-0-1 record over their last 13 games and the schedule is breaking in their favor on Saturday night. New York comes in with two full days of rest between games, while the Flyers return home after playing the Senators in Ottawa on Friday night. So not only are the Flyers tired, but they’ll likely be starting back-up goalie Brian Elliott. Elliott has been fine so far this season, but he’s a definite downgrade from Carter Hart.

The Islanders play a heavy forechecking game that should stifle a tired Philadelphia team and prevent them from reaching their average of 34.3 shots on goal per game. Without that volume it’s hard to imagine the Flyers getting too many shots past Thomas Greiss, who’s been sensational this season, and an Islanders team allowing fewer than 2.3 goals per game.

Season Record: 2-2 (-.75 units)