NHL Best Bets: Expect Low-Scoring Affair Between Islanders, Stars

Dennis Schneidler-USA TODAY Sports

It’s a slightly less packed Saturday of NHL action than usual. Only 11 games are on tap for today, but there’s plenty to be excited about.

Our two NHL experts share their favorite bets for today’s slate.

New York Islanders vs. Dallas Stars: Under 5 goals (+100)

I wasn’t sure the books would actually do it, but we finally see a very rare total of 5 on the board for this matchup. I was hoping for 5.5 even with the under heavily juiced, but this’ll have to do.

These two teams epitomize defense. They both rank in the top five in fewest goals allowed this season, with the Islanders allowing 2.41 goals (third in NHL) and the Stars allowing 2.43 (fourth in NHL) per game this season. Neither team ranks in the top half of the league in goals for, each averaging under 2.9 goals per game. The way things are trending, those numbers don’t appear to be in line for a major shakeup.

Dallas finally broke its losing streak with an overtime victory on Tuesday night, but its offense is still lagging. The Stars have scored more than three goals just once and more than two goals just twice in their last seven games, averaging 1.86 goals per game in that stretch. The Islanders have struggled to score over their last seven games as well, averaging the same 1.86 goals per game but an even worse 1.60 goals per game in their last five road games.

All four goalies have been excellent for these two teams, so whatever combo the coaches choose shouldn’t matter too much. Expect a tight-checking, defensive-minded game. —Jaime Eisner

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Detroit Red Wings: Over 6 goals (-110)

The battle of Matt Murray vs. Jonathan Bernier should lead to a fruitful night of goals for all of the playmakers in this game.

Let’s start with the Penguins, who will be playing in their second game in as many nights after facing the Coyotes at home on Friday. A tired group of forwards from the more offensively gifted team may not seem ideal, but the goaltender they’re facing has been quite porous lately. Bernier has allowed three or more goals in each of his last seven games. He’s allowed an average of 3.43 goals per game since November 12.

In the other crease, a back-to-back means that Murray will get the start for Pittsburgh. He’s been brutal over his last nine starts. He has an .859 save percentage since Nov. 4 and has a goals-against average of 3.73.

The Penguins should score at will against Detroit, especially with Bryan Rust back, and the Red Wings catch a break with a cold goaltender and tired defenders coming in. —Jaime Eisner

Colorado Avalanche at Boston Bruins

Puck Line: Bruins -1.5 (+165) | Avalanche +1.5 (-185)

Moneyline: Bruins -150 | Avalanche +130

Goal Total 6: OVER -120 | UNDER +100

Game Details: 7:00 p.m. ET - TD Garden, Boston, MA.

Colorado (18-8-2) heads into Boston riding a five-game winning streak. Playing the third of three road games, the Avalanche won 3-1 in Toronto on Wednesday and 3-2 in Montreal on Thursday. After missing 16 games, Gabriel Landeskog returned and lit the lamp in the win over the Canadiens. Currently the highest scoring team in the league, Colorado is averaging 3.70 goals per game.

Boston (20-3-6) is the hottest team in the NHL as the Bruins have earned at least one point during 13 straight games. Down 3-0 in the third period, Boston fought back but fell 4-3 in OT to Chicago at home on Thursday. Solid at both ends of the ice, Boston is fourth in scoring (3.59) and first in goals allowed (2.24) on defense. The Bruins are a sparkling 12-0-5 at home this season.

This is the second of two meetings after Colorado posted 4-2 win at home back on October 10. These teams split the season series last year, as the Bruins won 2-1 in Boston and the Avalanche won 6-3 in Denver. Take Colorado and the pucks in a battle of hot-running squads.

Pick: Avalanche +1.5 (-185) Puck Line—Roy Larking

Toronto Maple Leafs at St. Louis Blues

Puck Line: Blues -1.5 (+167) | Maple Leafs +1.5 (-192)

Moneyline: Blues -135 | Maple Leafs +115

Goal Total 5.5: OVER -125 | UNDER +105

Game Details: 7:00 p.m. ET - Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO.

Following a decent 4-1 run under new head coach Sheldon Keefe, Toronto (13-13-4) has lost two straight. The Maple Leafs were blown out 6-1 in Philadelphia on Tuesday and fell 3-1 at home to Colorado on Wednesday. Toronto has been Jekyll and Hyde on the road this season, outscoring their opponents 27-10 during six wins but getting outscored 45-23 over nine losses.

St. Louis (18-6-6) returns home following a two-game road trip. The Blues won 4-0 in Chicago on Monday and lost 3-0 in Pittsburgh in their last game on Wednesday. Outscoring opponents by a 28-17 combined count, St. Louis has been hot during a 6-2-1 run over the last nine games. The Blues are 8-3-3 overall at home this season but just 3-2-1 over the last six games as hosts.

Toronto and St. Louis square off in the second of two meetings this season. The Blues erased a 2-1 Maples Leafs lead and won 3-2 in the first match back on Oct. 5. St. Louis has won seven straight over Toronto, with the last four staying UNDER the total.

Pick: Blues -135 Moneyline—Roy Larking

New York Islanders at Dallas Stars

Puck Line: Stars -1.5 (+185) | Islanders +1.5 (-225)

Moneyline: Stars -150 | Islanders +130

Goal Total 5: OVER -130 | UNDER +110

Details: 8:00 p.m. ET - American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX.

New York (19-6-2) is on the road, for the sixth time over eight games, and it is 1-3-1 over the last five as visitors. Following a win in Detroit (4-1) and a loss in Montreal (4-2) the Islanders took down Vegas 3-2 OT at home during the last game on Thursday. Sitting third-best overall, allowing a stingy 2.41 goals per game, strong defense has been leading the way for New York.

Following a red-hot 14-0-1 run, Dallas (16-11-3) has stumbled to a 1-3-1 recent record. Offense has been an issue during the slide, as the Stars have been outscored 16-7 over the last five games. The Stars last played on Thursday when they posted a 3-2 OT home win over Winnipeg. Enjoying home cooking, Dallas is 10-4-1 at American Airlines Center so far this season.

Dallas and New York split the season series last year with the Islanders winning 3-1 in Dallas after the Stars posted a 6-2 win in New York. Dallas has won three of the last four meetings and two goals or more decided all of those contests. Bet on New York straight up here.

Pick: Islanders +130 Moneyline—Roy Larking

Eisner’s NHL Season Record: 9-10-1 (-1.51 units)

Larking’s NHL Season Record: 3-3 (-0.45 units)