Week 16 Saturday NFL Betting, Fantasy Preview

Over the last five weeks, the sharps have absolutely crushed the sportsbooks in both NFL and college football wagering. The information from Vegas, shared here only at Sports Illustrated, is currently on a red-hot 12-2 ATS (86%) run on all football plays.

Moneyline: HOU: (-160) | TB: (+140)

Spread: HOU: -3 (-110) | TB: +3 (-110)

Total: 49.5 – Over: (-110) | Under: 49.5 (-110)

Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: HOU: 63% | TB: 27%

The line for Saturday’s early kickoff has ticked up steadily from its opening of Houston as 1.5-point road favorites following strong public support in favor of the Texans. According to the "Whispers" out in Vegas, the sharps are in agreement with the squares and are laying the current spread of a full field goal (-3) backing Deshaun Watson and the Texans, who can clinch the AFC South with a victory over Tampa Bay.

Houston (9-5 SU, 7-7 ATS) who is 4-2 ATS in its six road games will be looking to earn their 10th win in search of the AFC South crown and a home playoff game. Tampa Bay (7-7 SU, 8-6 ATS) will be looking to extend its current four-game winning streak.

On the offensive side for Houston, fantasy owners will likely use QB Deshaun Watson as well as WRs DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller in their fantasy championship lineups. Watson, who has thrown multiple touchdown passes in three of his last four games, comes in as a top-five option according to my model for championship week. The biggest beneficiaries of that production will once again be the dynamic duo of Hopkins and Fuller. Fire up the trio with extreme confidence.

On the Tampa Bay side, fantasy owners will be starting QB Jameis Winston and WR Breshad Perriman. Winston has set NFL records in his last two games, becoming the first quarterback to throw for 450 yards or more in consecutive games. Perriman could be in a prime position to carry fantasy teams following the injuries to starting wideouts Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Amidst increased snap counts and targets, the fifth-year wide receiver has exploded for four touchdowns over his last two games. Perriman has a favorable matchup against a 28th-ranked Houston pass defense.

The sharps like the road favorite here and are betting that the Texans will leave Florida as AFC South champs and end Tampa Bay’s winning streak.

The Play: Texans -3

Trends:

Tampa Bay is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four games overall
The over is 5-0 in Tampa Bay’s last five home games
Houston is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite
The over is 8-2 in Houston’s last ten games as a road favorite

Moneyline: BUF: (+240) | NE: (-300)

Spread: BUF: +6.5 (-110) | NE: -6.5 (-110)

Total: 37 – Over: (-110) | Under: 37 (-110)

Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: BUF: 55% | NE: 45%

The line for Saturday afternoon has held steady from its opening of the Patriots as 6.5-point home favorites despite public support in favor of Buffalo. According to the "Whispers" out in Vegas, the sharps are instead backing the defensive angle accompanied with two of the league’s best units and are playing under the posted total (37).

Buffalo (10-4 SU, 9-4 ATS), who is 6-0 ATS on the road this season, will be looking to snap the Patriots' six-game winning streak in the series. New England (11-3 SU, 8-6 ATS) will be hoping to win for the eighth time in its last 11 games.

On the offensive side for Buffalo, fantasy owners will likely use RB Devin Singletary and WR John Brown in their fantasy championship lineups. However, the best option is Buffalo’s defense, who has been dominant over their last five games recording 20 sacks, 10 turnovers while only allowing 13.2 points per game over that span. Singletary, who has posted double-digit PPR fantasy points in five of his last eight games, may find tough sledding against the league’s seventh-best rush defense that has allowed the second-fewest touchdowns on the ground (6) this season. Fantasy owners may be employing WR John Brown, who has been a borderline WR1 this season, but has a difficult matchup with the expected draw of Patriots top CB Stephon Gillmore.

On the New England side, fantasy owners will be starting WR Julien Edelman and the Patriots' top-rated defense. Edelman, who is nursing shoulder and knee injuries, disappointed fantasy owners with just two receptions for nine yards in Week 15 against Cincinnati. Owners will likely insert Edelman, but the risk of a second consecutive disappointing effort is high. Fantasy owners will also want to start the Patriots defense, who my model also ranks as a top-three option in the finals of the fantasy playoffs. The imposing unit has carried the team to its 11-3 record with a dominant 2019 campaign.

The sharps like both stout defenses here and are betting that the points will be hard to come by in the battle for first place in the AFC East.

The Play: UNDER 37

Trends:

New England is 1-5 ATS vs. teams with a winning record
The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings at Gillette Stadium
The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between the AFC East foes
Buffalo is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Foxborough
The road team is 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 meetings between these bitter rivals

NFL Season Record: 6-5