Rocket Mortgage Classic Value Plays
Scottie Scheffler (35/1)
I like Scheffler quite a bit for this week and may fly under the radar after missing the cut at the Travelers Championship last week. He wasn't terrible, finishing at -3, but expectations last week were certainly higher.
Scheffler still ranks 11th in driving distance, 9th in birdie average, and 17th in scoring average. His approach around the green still needs to come back to life, but he’s more than capable of pulling it off. Scheffler also has four top 10 finishes in 15 events in the 2020 PGA season.
Doc Redman (40/1)
It’s remarkable that just last week, Redman was listed at 300/1 to win the Travelers Championship and almost pulled it off! He shot a 63 on Round 4 to put him into 11th.
This week? How about 40/1 to win the Rocket Mortgage Classic?
Redman hit just under 82% of greens-in-regulation (GIR) last week and is trending up at an ideal time. He also finished second at this event last season.
Normally, I would tend to fade someone like Redman because this doesn't feel like proper value. But the more I've dove into his recent numbers, the more I've been impressed. He's sneakily 13th in the 2020 season in driving accuracy and 22nd in greens hit in regulation (GIR).
Rory Sabbatini (50/1)
Sabbatini didn't play last week at the Travelers, but his game has been in excellent shape since the Tour picked up at the Charles Schwab Challenge in Ft. Worth. He's also been killing it the last two Sundays, shooting back-to-back 65's with six birdies and a bogey-free round coming at the RBC Heritage.
Sabbatini finished 14th and 21st in both of his events and came in third last year at the Rocket Mortgage Classic last year. I also like him in his head-to-head matchup at -120 over Lucas Glover, via the odds at the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas.
Brandt Snedeker (50/1)
Snedeker is another golfer who finished top-five last year at this event and thrived on Donald Ross-designed courses. Jason Sobel of The Action Network found this stat that sets up well for Snedeker at Detroit Golf Club.
“Snedeker might be the closest we've seen to a Ross specialist. He won at Forest Oaks in 2008, East Lake in 2012 and Sedgefield in 2018, and finished T-3 at Plainfield and T-9 at Pinehurst No. 2." Throw in a top-five at this tournament, and it's painfully obvious that Sneds loves the quirkiness of Ross courses, as this has become a growing trend in his career."
Performance-wise, Snedeker has played ok. He finished 41st at the Travelers Championship and missed the cut at the RBC. This is purely a play on the course design being a unique fit for him, and the trend works as a value play at 50/1 in a weak field.
Other Values to Consider
- Erik Van Rooyen (80/1)
- Harold Varner III (80/1)
Rocket Mortgage Classic Longshots
Brian Stuard (100/1)
Another top-five finisher from a season ago, Stuard gets the hometown advantage playing in Detroit. Granted, it's the same strategy that burned me a week ago with Keegan Bradley at 125/1, but I'm willing to go back to the well with Stuard.
His form is excellent after finishing top-20 last week at TPC River Highlands and has made three consecutive cuts since the tour re-opened back on June 11th at Colonial. He's also top-five in driving accuracy so far in 2020. Sounds like a noteworthy 100/1 dart throw to me.
Wes Bryan (150/1)
Bryan led all players in strokes gained - approach last week. He’s also back on bentgrass for putting, where according to Pat Mayo’s research, gives Bryan a +0.31 strokes per round putting advantage.
His struggles off the tee shouldn't hinder him too much at this type of course. I also love the pairing he has with Harold Varner III and Viktor Hovland, two of my favorite bets for this weekend to up his game.
Other Longshots to Consider
- Aaron Wise (150/1)
- Kevin Chappell (200/1)
- Cameron Tringale (200/1)