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The Fantasy Executive's Daily NBA Rundown - Odds, Bets, and Plays for Thursday, February 11th

SI Gambling’s Corey Parson breaks down his NBA wagers and shares his best bets, target lines, props and more.

We've got five games on the NBA slate tonight, and while it's a decent slate without a ton of buzz to it, I think we can grab a few wins. There are no major injuries to keep an eye on for tonight so that makes things a little easier.

Tonight features a few teams that have been on losing streaks with the Indiana Pacers and Houston Rockets looking to snap three-game losing streaks, The Miami Heat are on the road tonight looking for their fourth straight win. They may be starting to turn the corner.

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NBA Betting Plays - Thursday, February 11th


Toronto Raptors vs. Boston Celtics (-3.5) Total: 220.5

The Toronto Raptors seem to be getting into a groove. They have won five out of their last six games, and tonight they face their divisional foes in Boston. The Celtics have lost three of their last four games, but have been battling injuries as of late and should be at full strength for tonight's matchup. 

Toronto has gone over the total in 10 of the 14 road games they have played this season and are 7-7- ATS on the road. The Celtics score 111 points-per-game on their home court while allowing their opponents 107 per game. 

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The total for this game opened at 221.5, and as of now, DraftKings has the total at 220.5. Most of the shops that I have seen have this number juiced to the over at 220.5, so this line should be headed back to 221. The Raptors have gone over the number in each of their last seven games and I think this game will go over the 220.5 total. For as good as Toronto has played lately, I think they are in trouble. Tonight in Boston is the Raptor's sixth straight road game and I will almost always fade a team in that spot. The Celtics are 6-2 ATS a home this season and they need a win tonight.

The Pick: Celtics -3.5

Bet Raptors vs Celtics at DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

Indiana Pacers vs Detroit Pistons (+3.5) Total: 216.5

This should be a fun game in Detroit tonight. The Pacers enter the game on a four-game losing streak as well as against the spread (ATS). Detroit only has six wins on the season but they have 12 wins ATS. I really want to back the Pistons in this spot but Detroit covers big spreads. They could be overvalued tonight coming off their big victory over the Brooklyn Nets. I can't back the Pistons at such a low number, so there is also no chance that I back Detroit on this losing streak. 

Most NBA bettors like to bet the under on divisional games, and it makes sense. Common opponents tend to know each other's tendencies. I would not overlook the fact that the Pistons are 14-10 to the over this season. 

Additionally, this number is sitting in a sweet spot at 216. In games, this season where the total closes between 215 and 220 the Pacers and Pistons have combined to go over the total 68% off the time.

The Pick: Over 216.5

Overall Record: 29-32 ATS