NFL Player Prop Bets: Week 4 Thursday Night Football - Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Last Thursday night, we saw the Carolina Panthers become the first team to 3-0 in a low-scoring affair in Houston. We successfully bet the under on the game total and the under on 4.5 touchdowns scored, though our anytime TD props didn't come through. Let's hope for a little more offense this time around. Here's what's on tap.
(Note: Odds subject to change)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals
- Moneyline: Jacksonville (-350) | Cincinnati (+275)
- Spread: Jacksonville +7.5 (-118) | Cincinnati -7.5 (+100)
- Total: 46 - Over: (-110) | Under (-110)
- Game Info: September 30, 2021, 8:20 p.m. ET | NFL Network
The 2-1 Cincinnati Bengals are heavily favored here at home on SI Sportsbook, and rightly so. The 0-3 Jacksonville Jaguars have looked abysmal under new head coach Urban Meyer, and rookie wonderboy Trevor Lawrence looks much more human in the NFL. Lawrence has been picked seven times already, tied for the most with fellow rookie Zach Wilson, and he has the league-worst completion rate at 54.2%. Comparatively, sophomore Joe Burrow looks like a super-star with a 70.7% completion rate while allowing "only" four picks.
The Jags have put up only 53 offensive points across three games, an average of less than 18 per game, while the Bengals have put up 68, averaging less than 23 per game played. That simple math puts the game total at 41, but let's also look at what each defense has allowed. Jacksonville has allowed an average of 30 points per game, while Cincinnati has allowed 18. That overly simple math brings us to 48, and this game total of 46 feels just about right.
However, if I am picking, I will take the OVER here in primetime on Thursday night. Burrow seems to be hitting his rhythm with Ja'Marr Chase, and I think they show off at home Thursday night. We saw the Jaguars finally get James Robinson going last week, and they kept the game close for the first half vs. the Cardinals. I think T-Law will connect for at least one passing TD while the Jacksonville defense continues to be sloppy. I like the OVER, with the Bengals, who are 3-2 in their last five games against the spread, covering the spread tonight.
Now, let's hit some player props! All odds are taken from the SI Sportsbook.
(Note: Odds subject to change)
Joe Mixon anytime TD (-165)
The Jacksonville defense has been especially vulnerable to the run game, surrendering four rushing and one receiving touchdown to opposing quarterbacks. Mixon has a true bell-cow 73 touches across three weeks of football, and this home matchup should see him hit pay dirt.
Ja'Marr Chase anytime TD (+100)
Ja'Marr Chase has four touchdowns across three games played, and he's playing nearly 90% of the snaps while commanding a whopping 45% of the team's air yards. With no Tee Higgins, I don't see this trend changing. Chase and Burrow have connected on a 30-yard score three games in a row, and as the Jacksonville Jaguars have surrendered the fourth-most yards to opposing wide receivers and are allowing a league-leading 74.6% catch rate, I'm willing to bet the former LSU teammates make it four in a row.
DJ Chark anytime TD (+240)
I'm betting Lawrence will connect with Chark, who found the end zone in both Week 1 and Week 3. Chark's average depth of target is 16 yards, which is among the top 7% in the league. Should Jacksonville be down by more than a score, which we are predicting, Lawrence could be looking for his deep target.
Marvin Jones Jr. first TD (+1100, LOTTO)
Look—betting on a first touchdown is silly. But, if you throw a few bucks on it, it could also be really fun if it hits. Marvin Jones has been Lawrence's favorite target, leading all Jacksonville receivers in targets, catches, and receiving yards, and he's found the end zone in two of three games. Cincinnati has allowed the ninth-highest catch-rate and tenth most yards to opposing wide receivers, and Jones is the veteran presence Lawrence will look to in this primetime game. Let's just hope he gets there first.
More Betting:
• NFL Week 4 Preview: Early Line Movement & Odds Tracking
• College Football Playoff Championship Betting Futures Breakdown
