NFL Week 8 Betting Preview: Early Line Movement and Odds Tracking
After seven weeks of NFL action, underdogs hold a slight edge in the wagering outcome with a 56-48 mark Against The Spread (53.8%).
The action returns Thursday night with a primetime NFC showdown between the Packers and Cardinals. The undefeated Cardinals currently are 6.5-point home favorite with a total sitting on the game at 50.5 at SI Sportsbook.
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Let’s take an early look at several of the biggest games that have garnered significant betting attention resulting in noticeable line moves on the weekend slate.
Denny Medley/USA TODAY Sports
NFL Week 8 Games ‘On The Move’
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
- Moneyline: Miami (+600) | Buffalo (-900)
- Spread: MIA +13.5 (-110) | BUF -13.5 (-110)
- Total: 50.5– Over: (-110) | Under: 50.5 (-110)
- Game Info: Oct. 31, 2021 | 1 p.m. ET | CBS
Bettors are strongly investing that Josh Allen will have no issue with a struggling Dolphins squad that has lost six consecutive games.
This game opened in early wagering in August with the Bills as 7-point favorites, but has since been adjusted to Miami as 13.5-point road underdog at SI Sportsbook.
The Bills, coming off the bye, are looking to rebound after being upset in Week 6 by the Titans. Buffalo blanked the Dolphins, 35-0, as 3.5-point favorites in Week 2. Buffalo possesses the league’s best pass defense (180.5 yards per game) and should easily shut down the 24th-ranked Miami passing offense (227.4 yards per game).
Bettors are investing that Buffalo, who has defeated Miami six consecutive times, will have no problems extending their dominance to seven in front of the Bills Mafia.
BY THE NUMBERS
- Public Betting: 73% of money on Buffalo
- Line Move: Buffalo -7 to Buffalo -13.5
2021 Against the Spread Record
- MIA: 2-5 ATS (Home: 0-4 ATS, Away: 2-1 ATS)
- BUF: 4-2 ATS (Home: 2-1 ATS, Away: 2-1 ATS)
2020 Against the Spread Record
- MIA: 11-5 ATS (Home: 7-1 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)
- BUF: BUF: 10-6 ATS (Home: 6-2 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets
- Moneyline: Cincinnati (-550) | New York (+410)
- Spread: CIN -10.5 (-110) | NYJ +10.5 (-110)
- Total: 42– Over (-110) | Under 42 (-110)
- Game Info: Oct. 31, 2021 | 1 p.m. ET | CBS
We have witnessed a dominant flip of favorites involving the Bengals in Week 8 heading into New Jersey to take on a short-handed Jets squad that will be without starting rookie quarterback Zach Wilson (knee).
New York, which ranks last in points scored (13.3 points per game), is off to a 1-5 straight-up (SU) and ATS start.
This game opened with New York as a 1-point favorite in early wagering but has since moved substantially to the Bengals as 10.5-point road favorites at SI Sportsbook. Pro money is wagering that Cincinnati, who is 3-1 ATS on the road this season, will easily dominate backup quarterback Mike Smith in his first career start.
All bettors should note that pro money is quietly backing the Bengals in the first quarter (-2.5) and first half (-6), based upon the fact that the Jets have been outscored 44-0 in the opening quarter as well as 106-20 in the first half of games this season.
BY THE NUMBERS
- Public Betting:81% of money on Cincinnati
- Line Move: Jets -1 to Bengals -10.5
2021 Against the Spread Record
- CIN: 4-3 ATS (Home: 1-2 ATS, Away: 3-1 ATS)
- NYJ: 1-5 ATS (Home: 1-1 ATS, Away: 0-4 ATS)
2020 Against the Spread Record
- CIN: 9-7 ATS (Home: 5-3 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)
- NYJ: 6-10 ATS (Home: 4-4 ATS, Away: 2-6 ATS)
Gary A. Vasquez/USA TODAY Sports
New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers
- Moneyline: New England (+188) | Los Angeles (-225)
- Spread: NE +5 (-110) | LAC -5 (-110)
- Total: 49– Over: (-110) | Under: 49 (-110)
- Game Info: Oct. 31, 2021 | 4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
The Chargers, who return off their bye week, are looking to bounce back after their worst defeat of the season in Week 6 at Baltimore.
Oddsmakers have witnessed strong steam on Justin Herbert and Los Angeles at SI Sportsbook. The line move of the Chargers as an early 2.5-point home favorite has moved through the prime wagering numbers of three and four and is now displaying Los Angeles as a 5-point home favorite.
The Chargers own the fourth-best pass defense (201.8 passing yards per game) and will face rookie quarterback Mac Jones. He has thrown multiple touchdowns in three of his last four games.
Herbert, who has a 7:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio over his last two home games, faces a Patriots defense allowing the sixth-fewest points per game (20.0).
Bettors are fading a New England club whose two road wins over the Jets and Texans do not garner much respect, as the the two are a combined 2-11 (.182). The Patriots are also just 3-7 ATS over their last 10 road games.
BY THE NUMBERS
- Public Betting: 60% of money on Los Angeles
- Line Move: LAC -2.5 to LAC -5
2021 Against the Spread Record
- NE: 3-4 ATS (Home: 2-3 ATS, Away: 1-1 ATS)
- LAC: 4-2 ATS (Home: 2-1 ATS, Away: 2-1 ATS)
2020 Against the Spread Record
- NE: 7-9 ATS (Home: 5-3 ATS, Away: 2-6 ATS)
- LAC: 9-7 ATS (Home: 4-4 ATS, Away: 5-3 ATS)
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings
- Moneyline: Dallas (-125) | Minnesota (+105)
- Spread: DAL -1.5 (-110) | MIN +1.5 (-110)
- Total: 55– Over: (-110) | Under: 55 (-110)
- Game Info: Oct. 31, 2021 | 8:20 p.m. ET | NBC
Sunday Night Football offers a quality NFC matchup between Dallas and Minnesota.
The Cowboys, returning from their Week 7 bye, hope to have star quarterback Dak Prescott (calf) under center. Dallas possesses the league’s second-best rush offense (164.3 rushing yards per game) and, if Prescott is limited, the Cowboys will likely lean heavily on the ground attack, led by star running back Ekeziel Elliott.
Dallas has been a cash cow for bettors in 2021, posting the only perfect ATS mark (6-0) at SI Sportsbook. Bettors are wagering the Cowboys will extend their ATS streak to seven consecutive games against a Vikings team that has not beaten a team with a winning record this season. Minnesota has lost to the Cardinals, Bengals and Browns, while beating the Seahawks, Lions and Panthers, who are a combined 5-16 (.313).
BY THE NUMBERS
- Public Betting: 73% of money on Dallas
- Line Move: Minnesota -3 to Dallas -1.5
2021 Against the Spread Record
- DAL: 6-0 ATS (Home: 3-0 ATS, Away: 3-0 ATS)
- MIN: 3-3 ATS (Home: 1-2 ATS, Away: 2-1 ATS)
2020 Against the Spread Record
- DAL: 5-11 ATS (Home: 4-4 ATS, Away: 1-7 ATS)
- MIN: 6-10 ATS (Home: 2-6 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)
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Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
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