MLB World Series Game 6 Betting Primer: Lines, Odds and Predictions
What a turn of events.
The Braves held a four-run lead in the first inning of a potential World Series clincher Sunday and seemed on their way to the first title in 26 years.
The Astros' offense then came to life (cue the Undertaker GIF) and showcased its championship pedigree by rallying for a 9-5 win.
That swing in momentum puts the Braves in a tough spot heading to Houston, where the Astros are 5-2 this postseason.
The Braves are turning to struggling lefty Max Fried (1-2, 5.40 postseason ERA) and the Astros are projected to start Luis Garcia (1-2, 7.62 postseason ERA).
Houston's rally burned our experts Sunday, but they are looking to rebound. Jen Piacenti and Matt Ehalt are here with their Game 6 picks.
Check the odds at SI Sportsbook
Brett Davis/USA TODAY Sports
MONEYLINE: ASTROS (-125); BRAVES (+105)
Piacenti: OK, full disclosure—I just got tickets to Game 7, so you may see a theme with my picks. The Astros being favored is pretty interesting to me considering the Braves have Fried starting and the Astros will probably turn to Garcia on short rest.
But, of course, I am going with the Astros at home.
Just as in Game 2, I think the Astros can get a few knocks off of Fried. They hit lefties well, and they should be able to build on the momentum they started in Atlanta. The lineup adjustments Dusty Baker made (nearly too late) ignited a spark, and I am betting the home crowd and the return of the DH will help get the Astros to Game 7.
Ehalt: I thought Atlanta had this series wrapped up when Adam Duvall hit that grand slam. Now, it's back to, 'Oh no, is Atlanta gonna Atlanta?'
For some reason, I have more faith that the Braves can win Game 7 than Game 6. Fried is fading and the Astros mash lefties. The Braves' bullpen finally faltered.
Garcia doesn't instill faith either, especially since he's on short rest, but Houston's offense finally came to life. Let's take the Astros forcing Game 7.
RUN LINE: BRAVES +1.5 (-188); ASTROS -1.5 (+155)
Piacenti: If I am going for the Astros, may as well go big.
I never like betting the run line, but in this case, I can't turn down +155. Go big or go home. Yordan Alvarez wakes up, Alex Bregman finds his bat and Jose Altuve hits a first-pitch home run in his second at-bat. (Too bold?)
Ehalt: The team that has won each game has won on the run line. I'm taking Houston, so I'll take the Astros on the run line, too.
OVER/UNDER: 9; UNDER (-118); OVER (+100)
Piacenti: Garcia will be on short rest, the Astros hit lefties well and Sunday's game had a total of 20 hits. The previous game—which ended 3-2 Braves—had a total of 16 hits.
The issue hasn't been hits, it's been timely hitting. If either team can just hit with RISP, this easily hits the over.
Ehalt: I finally decided to take the under and the over hits. Sigh. (Do I get credit for noting the over would—of course—hit once I went against it?)
I like the over here again, especially since I'm not sure either starter is going to shut down the lineups. Houston's offense has performed well at Minute Maid Park during both the regular season and postseason, and perhaps is back in form.
Postseason games at Minute Maid Park have averaged 9.29 runs.
John David Mercer/USA TODAY Sports
MONEYLINE AFTER 5 INNINGS: ASTROS (-133); BRAVES (+105)
Piacenti: Sticking with the home team. Sorry for the theme here, but listen: These are great seats.
Ehalt: The team that has led after five has won all but one game in this series (Game 4), although last night almost failed to cash when Houston rallied for three runs in the fifth inning. Let's stick with the odds and take Houston.
PLAYER PROP: 0.5 RUNS SCORED
Piacenti: I'll take the over on Yuli Gurriel scoring 0.5 runs at +135.
If the lineup changes stick, I like Kyle Tucker and Bregman with an RBI, and the AL batting champ should get on base.
I like this prop because every player is plus-money, and we know someone has to score—unlike a HR—which may or may not happen in any given ballgame.
Ehalt: With this game being played in an AL park, I'm not as concerned about the bottom of the order guys not scoring.
Travis d'Arnaud is having a solid series, and I like his +185 odds. He's scored in three of the five games. I think there's decent potential here with sizable odds.
I'd rather take a shot on a player with those type of odds (for this bet) than chasing the safer payout with one of the top-of-the-order batters.
Check the odds at SI Sportsbook
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