In today’s episode of fun with cherry-picked small sample sizes: The Composite is 133-131-3 over the last five weeks and coming off its best week of the season in Week 10, reversing arguably its worst in Week 9. We’re 85-78-2 over the last three weeks.
What’s been a theme over just the last three weeks is a pretty wild swing in being over and under .500. Our two highs are high, but our one low (nine games under .500 in Week 9) is rather low indeed. It is a marathon not a sprint, so there’s no telling if this week will end up being way above or below the mark, however, it would follow our little pattern for this to swing wildly the way we do not want it to go.
In a reversal Week 10, the Composite is way off the line in a decent amount of games.
Last Week: 33-24-2, 57.6%
Season: 254-273-6, 48.2%
Composite Best Bets
The process behind the picks is briefly explained in my Week 1 column. Most of the time, the computer spits out something within one or two points of the real line (and at that point, sharp plays and whale plays are what’s moving the line anyway). But if the computer gives something more than three points, it’s worth a second look.
-Michigan (PK) over Penn State
-Coastal Carolina (-10) over Georgia State
-Iowa State (-10.5) over Texas Tech
-FAU (-6.5) over Old Dominion
-Miami (-2.5) over FSU
-Middle Tennessee (-10) over FIU
-Hawaii (-2.5) over UNLV
-West Virginia (+6) over Kansas State
-Rutgers (+7) over Indiana
-ECU (+5.5) over Memphis
-UCF (+7) over SMU
-Maryland (+13) over Michigan State
-Stanford (+12) over Oregon State
-LSU (+2.5) over Arkansas
-TCU (+13) over Oklahoma State
-Colorado (+16.5) over UCLA
-Utah State (+5) over San Jose State
The Big Dogs
-South Alabama (+22) over Appalachian State
-Southern Miss (+33) over UTSA
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