The Buccaneers are 7-1 Against The Spread (ATS) in their last eight home games. Will they make it 8-1 tonight?
- Moneyline: New York (+410) | Tampa Bay (-549)
- Spread: New York +10.5 (-110) | Tampa Bay -10.5 (-110)
- Total: 49.5 -Over (-110) | Under (-110)
- Game Info: Nov. 18, 2021 | 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN
Tampa Bay opened as 12.5 point favorites for this game two weeks ago, but the line moved to -11 following this week’s loss to Washington. It’s now down to -10.5.
Saquon Barkley is expected to return for the Giants, and New York is rested coming off a bye. But Tom Brady and the Bucs can’t lose three in a row, right?
Tampa Bay averaged 28 points per game across its last three games, compared to New York’s 21.7. On the season, the Bucs tally 31 points per game to the Giants’ 19.9.
The Buccaneers yield 23.6 points per game, while New York has allowed 24.
The Bucs are the clear moneyline pick here, but a double-digit spread is something I always try to avoid—even when it involves the reigning Super Bowl Champs. The math says pick the Giants, but my gut says Brady makes a statement.
The game total of 49.5 seems incredibly tight.
So, it's time to get creative with betting the game tonight! I asked the betting team at Sports Illustrated how they would be betting Monday Night Football.
All picks can be found at SI Sportsbook.
SI Senior Fantasy Editor Craig Ellenport's Take:
There's one thing you should feel strongly about Monday night: Tom Brady is not going to lose three games in a row. The Giants are just as likely to make this a close game as they are to get blown out of the water, so I'm not touching the spread. But I don't see Tampa Bay losing this game. The total of 49.5 feels a bit high to me. Sure, the Bucs have averaged 40.5 in their four home games this season, but the improving Giants defense has allowed just 39 points in their last three games combined. Even if you give the Bucs 35 points in this one, you're asking a shaky Giants offense to score 15 for the over. I don't see that happening.
BEST BET: Moneyline: Buccaneers (-549); U 49.5 (-110)
SI Associate Betting Editor Matt Ehalt's Take
The Giants may be lost as a franchise right now—although they do currently have two top-10 picks—but there is one thing they do well: play hard against Tom Brady. The Giants could have beaten the Bucs at the Meadowlands last year, and now face a slumping Buccaneers team with a depleted defense. Brady is going to put up points, but the Giants should be able to keep this one within 11 points considering Tampa Bay couldn't slow down New Orleans or Washington. The Beauty of such a large spread is the backdoor cover potential.
BEST BET: Moneyline: Buccaneers (-549); Giants +10.5 (-110); O 49.5 (-110)
SI Coordinating Producer Doug Vazquez's Take
I don’t really like any of the numbers in this game, as the 10.5 spread just seems a little high and the total of 49.5 seems just right and in favor of the books. But I’m never not putting a little action on MNF, so I’m looking at the player props. Gronk is expected to return and Tom is sure to be anxious to get his favorite target in the mix once the Bucs get in the red zone. So, I LOVE his plus money anytime TD prop at +150. I expect the Bucs to take an early lead and hold it, which is great for Leonard Fournette’s prospect of seeing a lot of action out of the backfield, so I will also sprinkle a little on his total yards prop of over 95.5 at -118
BEST BET: Rob Gronkowski anytime TD (+150); Leonard Fournette O 95.5 total yards (-118)
SI Senior Betting Editor Dave Scipione's Take:
The Giants have surrendered 122.6 yards per game to running backs, so I’m keying in on Leonard Fournette props. His longest rush total is 13.5 yards (-133) at SI Sportsbook, and I think it’s a solid bet if you believe Tampa Bay will be playing with the lead. It’s Tom Brady in primetime, the Bucs should win this game and Fournette should be feasting on a tired Giants defense to pick up a big run or two. Hammer time for Fournette over 13.5 yards longest rush.
BEST BET: Leonard Fournette longest rush O 13.5 yards (-133)
SI Betting & Fantasy Director Bill Enright's Take:
Chris Godwin is averaging around 80 yards per game., 10 yards more than the 70.5 total on SI Sportsbook. The Giants have allowed at least one of their opposing wide receivers to go over that mark in eight of nine gamesGive me the over on Godwin’s receiving yards.
BEST BET: Chris Godwin O 70.5 receiving yards (-125)
SI Betting & Fantasy Writer Kyle Wood's Take:
Give me Leonard Fournette over 95.5 rushing plus receiving yards. In three losses, the Buccaneers' back averages 56 total yards per game. Fournette averages a little more than 100 total yards in Tampa Bay's wins. I find the spread a little rich for how Tom Brady and Co. have fared in recent weeks, but I still believe the Buccaneers win. With a lead, Fournette should see at least the 15 touches he likely needs to hit this number.
BEST BET: Leonard Fournette O 95.5 total yards (-118)
SI & MMQB Writer Conor Orr's Take:
I'll take the under at 49.5. While I think Joe Judge and the Giants will benefit from a bye, Todd Bowles, Bruce Arians and Tom Brady are an awful lot of collective brain power to contend with given some extra time to prepare as well. New York's secondary has improved of late and Bowles should have the ability to bottle up a Giants team that may try and force Saquon Barkley amid his return from an ankle injury. All of this leads me to believe we'll have a bit of a televised slog in primetime. Unlike Sunday night's beautiful explosion of points between Pittsburgh and Los Angeles, we'll have to settle for a bit of dirt for dessert.
BEST BET: U 49.5 (-110)
More Betting, Fantasy & NFL: