Thanksgiving weekend saw a few upsets and subsequent changes in the top 25. Notably, Duke knocked off Gonzaga and supplanted the Bulldogs in the No. 1 spot while Kansas fell to Dayton and dropped a few spots.
Purdue benefitted from Duke’s win, moving up to the No. 2 spot as Gonzaga slid. The Boilermakers host FSU Tuesday night and look to build their already impressive resume. Meanwhile, the Blue Devils survived their biggest test of the season so far and now face a good Ohio State team on the road.
Season record: 7-9
Guest pickers: 2-2
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
- Spread: Seminoles +10.5 (-110) | Boilermakers -10.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Under 142.5 (-110) Over 142.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Seminoles (+450) | Boilermakers (-599)
The Seminoles are winners of four games in a row since losing to the Gators on the road. Some of those games are a bit closer than they should have been. FSU beat Tulane (146 on KenPom) 59-54 and Boston University (No. 156 on KenPom) 81-80 in overtime. Both games were at home, where Florida State is historically good.
FSU has a balanced offensive attack, with four players averaging nine or more points led by senior forward Malik Osborne’s 12.5 PPG. The Seminoles have no issue scoring—they put up 100 in the opener and 80 or more in their last two games—though they have allowed some opponents to keep pace with them offensively.
The Boilermakers have an average margin of victory of 28.3 points. That’s with games against a pair of top-25 teams at the time—North Carolina and Villanova. Those wins came by nine and six points, respectively, and no other game has been closer than 25 points. Purdue shoots 43.5% from three-point range as a team and averages 92.3 PPG. Sophomore center Zach Edey, who stands at 7-foot-4, leads the team with 17.7 PPG.
Moneyline or Spread Pick: Boilermakers -10.5
It’s difficult to pick against Purdue at this point. Both games they played with single-digit scoring margins were against ranked teams on neutral courts. FSU is unranked, and the game is at Mackey Arena, where the Boilermakers have destroyed lesser opponents. Purdue exploits the Seminoles’ defense and romps to a 7-0 start.
Over/Under Pick: Over 142.5
Purdue has not scored less than 80 points in a game this season. Florida State has no problem scoring the ball either. Defense is the weakness for both teams to this point. They can exploit one another on that side of the ball, and this game comfortably goes over.
- Time: 9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
- Spread: Blue Devils -2 (-110) | Buckeyes +2 (-110)
- Over/Under: Under 147.5 (-110) | Over 147.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Blue Devils (-138) | Buckeyes (+115)
Duke added another top-10 win to its resume on Friday against Gonzaga. KenPom is less bullish on the top-ranked team, putting the Blue Devils at No. 6, dinging them for their defense. Paolo Banchero and Co. sure can score, though. Duke averages 85.6 PPG, led by Banchero’s 18.3. Though Coach K’s team has yet to play a true road game this season, both games on neutral courts were wins over highly ranked teams.
Ohio State likes to keep things interesting. Four of its six games have been decided by six points or fewer. The Buckeyes went 1-2 during a trying stretch that included losses to Xavier and Florida and a win over Seton Hall. OSU is led by junior forward E.J. Liddell, who’s good for 22.5 PPG. The Buckeyes are better on offense than defense, though, and they go as Liddell does.
Moneyline or Spread Pick: Duke -2
You’d be silly to bet against Duke coming off Friday’s win. Yes, Ohio State is still a quality team, and this game is in a hostile environment, but try telling that to the Blue Devils. If they can’t stop the Buckeyes defensively, they’ll outscore them.
Over/Under Pick: Under 147.5
Ohio State averaged 80 points in its first three games against lesser competition. That dropped to 70 PPG during the last three contests against better opponents. Duke had one slip up when it scored 67 points against Campbell but has otherwise been solid on offense. The Blue Devils playing in their first true road game is worth something, which is why I like the under.
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