NFL Week 12 Betting Recap: Bad Beats and Big Payouts
There are two sides to each bet.
The Winner.
The Loser.
For all the bettors thankful for Leonard Fournette after his game-winning touchdown cashed Buccaneers -3 bets, those holding Colts +3 tickets are not thankful Monday.
Those who took the over in Carolina-Miami gave thanks for the late field goal in a blowout that pushed the game over its total, while those who predicted a low-scoring contest between two defensive-oriented teams are not giving thanks.
We can all agree on this, though: None of us are thankful to have watched that Browns-Ravens "battle" in primetime.
Here's the good, the bad and the ugly from Week 12 betting.
Check Monday's Odds for Washington-Seattle at SI Sportsbook
Photo credit: Max Gersh/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK
THE GOOD
Four-Nette
Here's why you're thankful for Fournette's four-touchdown performance Sunday.
Fournette cashed his player props bets with his 131 total yards and four scores, including the over on his rushing yards and combined yards. He also cashed tickets at -110 for any anytime touchdown and +675 for the last touchdown of the game.
That last touchdown also gave Buccaneers -3 backers a winning ticket instead of a push. Now, we can debate the "football logic" of his last score—he probably should not have scored—but that doesn't matter when we're cashing bets.
Fournette rumbled into the end zone to give the Buccaneers a 38-31 lead with 29 seconds remaining, and that proved to be the final score.
Thank you, Lenny.
Can't be Stopped
Jonathan Taylor is the embodiment of the saying (paraphrasing here): "You can't stop him, but you can only hope to contain him."
Taylor had just 25 rushing yards with a little more than 10 minutes remaining, yet still managed to cash his anytime touchdown bet and the over on his rushing yards.
The star running back tallied 58 yards and a score on Indianapolis' next-to-last drive to give him 83 yards for the day. He topped his 80.5 rushing prop projection, and that score cashed his -225 anytime touchdown prop bet. What a season.
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
M is for Magnificent
Let's pivot to another running back who also had a monster day.
Joe Mixon torched the Steelers on Sunday for 163 total yards and two touchdowns.
Mixon cashed his anytime touchdown bet at -138 odds, and also easily topped his 72.5 rushing yards and 90.5 combined yards props.
We apologize to those of you, like yours truly, who faced him in must-win fantasy games. (really Pittsburgh? Really?!?!)
Had it The Whole Way
If you watched all of Ravens-Browns under your own will, the Ravens at least rewarded their bettors who watched a miserable game.
Baltimore, favored by three, led by three when it started a drive with 6:28 remaining. The Ravens drove into Browns territory, but the Browns got a late stop to force a field goal. That stop loomed quite large since it led to a Justin Tucker field goal that gave the Ravens a 16-10 lead which stood and allowed Baltimore to cover.
Had the Browns not forced a stop, Baltimore backers would have settled for a push.
Home Sweet Home
There has been so much wackiness in the NFL this year that it's worth pointing out when there is a notable trend during any given week.
Home teams went 8-3 Sunday, with the Colts, Jaguars and Texans failing to defend their turfs. At least the Colts had the excuse of playing the defending champions.
Love Those Boosted Odds
Damien Harris' 14-yard scored with 4:45 remaining all but sealed the Patriots' 36-13 win over the Titans, and also cashed a nice prop bet at SI Sportsbook.
Bettors needed Harris to score, Mac Jones to top 219.5 passing yards and the Patriots to cover to cash at +550 odds, boosted from +450. Jones easily topped his mark and the Patriots won by 23, but Harris' role seemed dicey until the end.
Another boosted prop that cashed at +700 (boosted from +620) featured the Packers, Broncos and 49ers all winning on the moneyline. The Packers (+2.5) and Broncos (+3) both were home underdogs but won by double-digits.
Welcome Back
Fantasy star Cordarrelle Patterson returned Sunday against the Jaguars and made up for lost time by scoring the first touchdown and cashing his anytime touchdown prop bet at +150 odds, along with the game's first score at +1000 odds.
We have a feeling you won't see +150 anytime scores for Patterson next week.
No Weapons, No Results
Fading Ryan Tannehill against the Patriots seemed like a wise strategy since he may as well have been starting Moe, Larry and Curly at wide receiver.
It proved to be a profitable strategy.
The under cashed for Tannehill's props on his passing yards, completions, pass attempts and longest completion. The over hit on his interceptions, which you likely would have bet had you decided to take the under on those other bids.
Tannehill did top the over on his touchdown passes (0.5), but that was a bet to avoid considering garbage time potential.
Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK
THE BAD
Stormy Weather in Southern California
The Rams and Chargers both entered Sunday's games as road favorites.
They both failed to show up.
The Chargers' offense couldn't get going in a 28-13 loss in Denver, and Matthew Stafford continued his poor play in the Rams' 36-25 loss in Green Bay.
Their failures ruined a decent boosted parlay from SI Sportsbook at +400 odds featuring the two Los Angeles teams and the 49ers all winning.
20 vs. 23 is Still Three Scores
If you had the under in the Panthers-Dolphins game, the end had to leave you feeling sour. The game had an over/under of 40.5, and the teams combined for 40 points entering the final five minutes before Miami kicked a field gal to make it 33-10.
This isn't a crushing loss since it happened with five minutes to go, but it stings since being up 20 versus being up 23 is not that different in terms of opponents' scoring needs. The Panthers' defense had a down day while facing a mediocre offense.
Maybe Use the First-Rounder
One tantalizing prop bet featured the past stud and rising star of the tight end position at boosted +330 odds (up from +260). Rob Gronkowski had to clear 45 yards and Kyle Pitts needed to hit the over on 63 yards for this bet to cash.
Gronkowski did his part, dismantling the Colts for 123 receiving yards. Pitts, meanwhile, continued his uninspired play as of late.
Pitts tallied just 26 yards on two catches, and has 55 yards over his last two games. He has just 190 receiving yards over his last five games.
Maybe, just maybe, the Falcons should use the No. 4 pick.
Not the Underdogs' Day
Betting the underdogs has been a profitable strategy this year, but the favorites went 6-5 both Against the Spread and Straight-Up.
Baltimore's win gave the favorites the victory for the day.
This one lands in the bad section simply since the underdogs had been a strong play this year, but it backfired Sunday.
Danielle Parhizkaran/NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK
THE UGLY
No Flying in New Jersey
Jalen Hurts is a fantastic runner.
His passing skills are, well, not good, and could be why the Eagles move on from his this offseason with all the veteran quarterbacks that could be available
Hurts and the Eagles' passing game somehow were worse than the Giants in a 13-7 loss in the Meadowlands. Hurts threw for 129 yards with three interceptions, and no Eagles receiver or tight end cashed their anytime touchdown prop bets.
The under cashed on Hurts' passing yards and passing touchdown bets, and DeVonta Smith (22 yards) and Dallas Goedert (0 yards) didn't come close to their props.
The Eagles' leading receiver, running back Kenneth Gainwell, had 32 receiving yards.
You Can't Beat the Jets?
There are few times to trust the Texans, but at home as 3-point favorites against the Jets seemed like a good chance to include Houston in wagers.
SI Sportsbook offered boosted odds at +600 (up from +520) that the Texans, Falcons and Dolphins would all win.
You know which team did not do its part. The Texans somehow lost to the Jets, 21-14. That franchise is a disaster at the moment.
Maybe He's Not Back
Bettors needed Cam Newton to top 215 passing yards and Kirk Cousins to throw for more than 272 yards to cash a boosted parlay at +300 odds (up from +250).
Cousins did his part against the 49ers, but Newton managed only 92 passing yards before mercifully being pulled after a 5-for-21 performance.
At least Newton tallied a rushing score if you bet his anytime touchdown prop.
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