NFL Week 13 Betting Preview: Line Movement and Odds Tracking for Sunday's Games
After 12 weeks of NFL action, sports bettors continue to witness underdogs holding a slight edge in the wagering outcome with a mark of 100-76-1 (56.8%).
The action returns Thursday with a primetime showdown between the Cowboys and Saints. Dallas is a 4.5-point road favorite, with a game total of 47.5 at SI Sportsbook.
Let’s look ahead to several of the biggest games that have garnered significant betting attention resulting in noticeable line moves on the Sunday slate.
Check Week 13 NFL Lines at SI Sportsbook
Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
NFL Week 13 Games ‘On The Move’
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
Moneyline: Tampa Bay (-550) | Atlanta (+410)
Spread: TB -11 (-110) | ATL +11 (-110)
Total: 50– Over: (-110) | Under: 50 (-110)
Game Info: Dec. 5, 2021 | 1 p.m. ET | Fox
This game opened in early wagering in August with Atlanta as 4.5-point home underdogs, but Tampa Bay is now an 11-point road favorite at SI Sportsbook.
Tampa Bay, coming off two consecutive Straight-Up (SU) and Against The Spread (ATS) wins over the Giants and Colts, is looking to strengthen its quest for a top seed in the NFC playoffs. The Buccaneers earned their first ATS road win in seven games as a road favorite last week against Indianapolis and will look to build off that win.
Pro money is wagering that Tampa Bay, with the top scoring offense (31.5 points per game), will easily handle a Falcons club it defeated, 48-25, as 13.5-point home favorites back in Week 2. Bettors are investing the Falcons, with the 30th-ranked run game (85.0) will struggle to run the ball against the NFL’s best run defense (81.0). Tampa Bay is looking to earn its third consecutive SU and ATS win over its division rival. The over is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings between these two dating to 2016.
BY THE NUMBERS
Public Betting: 62% of money on Tampa Bay
Line Move: Tampa Bay -4.5 to Tampa Bay -11
2021 Against the Spread Record
TB: 5-6 ATS (Home: 4-1 ATS, Away: 1-5 ATS
ATL: 5-6 ATS (Home: 0-4 ATS, Away: 5-1 ATS)
2020 Against the Spread Record
TB: 9-7 ATS (Home: 5-3 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)
ATL: 7-9 ATS (Home: 4-4 ATS, Away: 3-5 ATS)
Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears
Moneyline: Arizona (-350) | Chicago (+475)
Spread: ARZ -7.5 (-110) | CHI +7.5 (-110)
Total: 45.5– Over (-110) | Under 45.5 (-110)
Game Info: Dec. 5, 2021 | 1 pm ET | Fox
The Cardinals, early 1.5-point road favorites in August, were adjusted to 7.5-point favorites on Sunday’s opener at SI Sportsbook. Arizona is 6-0 ATS on the road, and will face a Bears squad that is 1-5 both SU and ATS over their last six games.
The Cardinals hope to have star quarterback Kyler Murray back under center after a three-game absence against a Bears defense that ranks eighth against the pass, only allowing 215.8 yards per game through the air. The Bears will need to find production from the league’s worst passing attack (169.8) if they have any hopes of keeping pace with the high-powered Cardinals. Bettors are fading a Bears team that has failed to be a wise investment when listed as underdogs this season, posting an 0-4 ATS mark over the last four games when oddsmakers have offered them in that role.
BY THE NUMBERS
Public Betting: 69% of money on Arizona
Line Move: Arizona -1.5 to Arizona -7.5
2021 Against the Spread Record
ARZ: 8-3 ATS (Home: 2-3 ATS, Away: 6-0 ATS)
CHI: 4-7 ATS (Home: 2-3 ATS, Away: 2-4 ATS)
2020 Against the Spread Record
ARZ: 7-9 ATS (Home: 3-5 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)
CHI: 8-8 ATS (Home: 4-4 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals
Moneyline: Los Angeles (+140) | Cincinnati (-170)
Spread: LAC +3 (-110) | CIN -3 (-110)
Total: 50.5– Over: (-110) | Under: 50.5 (-110)
Game Info: Dec. 5, 2021 1:00 pm ET | CBS
We have witnessed a flip of favorites from the early August line involving Joe Burrow and the Bengals hosting Justin Herbert and the Chargers. This game opened with Los Angeles as 2.5-point road favorites, but Cincinnati is now a 2.5-point home favorite.
Oddsmakers have witnessed strong steam backing the Bengals to improve their recent two-game SU and ATS winning streak, pushing the line to a full three-point demand. Pro money is wagering that the Bengals, who are 4-2 ATS in their last six, will dominate the Chargers on the ground. The Bengals own the 17th-ranked rushing attack (111.9 rushing yards per game) featuring Joe Mixon, and face the Chargers' league-worst rushing defense allowing 145.3 yards per game.
The Chargers have burned bettors with a 1-5 ATS mark over their last six games.
BY THE NUMBERS
Public Betting: 63% of money on Cincinnati
Line Move: Los Angeles -2.5 to Cincinnati -3
2021 Against the Spread Record
LAC: 5-6 ATS (Home: 2-4 ATS, Away: 3-2 ATS)
CIN: 6-5 ATS (Home: 2-3 ATS, Away: 4-2 ATS)
2020 Against the Spread Record
LAC: 9-7 ATS (Home: 4-4 ATS, Away: 5-3 ATS)
CIN: 9-7 ATS (Home: 5-3 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
Moneyline: San Francisco (-175) | Seattle (+145)
Spread: SF -3.5 (-110) | SEA +3.5 (-110)
Total: 45.5– Over: (-110) | Under: 45.5 (-110)
Game Info: Dec. 5, 2021 | 4:25 pm ET | Fox
The 49ers aim to build off their recent solid play when they head to Seattle to take on the struggling Seahawks. San Francisco, despite a 5-6 ATS record on the season, have rewarded their backers with a lucrative 4-1 SU and ATS mark over their last five games.
Bettors and oddsmakers' view of Seattle is just the opposite. In early wagering, Seattle was listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. That has flipped with Seattle now a 3.5-point home underdog, based upon their recent disappointing performances. The Seahawks, 0-3 SU and ATS over the last three weeks, continue to prove to bettors they can not be trusted. They are 1-6 SU overall record over their last seven games.
Seattle has won eight of the last 10 games against San Francisco (including three straight), but are just 5-5 ATS over that span.
Pro money is investing that Seattle, who won the first matchup 28-21 as 2.5-point road underdogs in Week 4, will not find that success in the second matchup.
Public Betting: 66% of money on San Francisco
Line Move: Seattle -1.5 to San Francisco -3.5
2021 Against the Spread Record
SF: 5-6 ATS (Home: 2-4 ATS, Away: 3-2 ATS)
SEA: 5-6 ATS (Home: 2-3 ATS, Away: 3-3 ATS)
2020 Against the Spread Record
SF: 6-10 ATS (Home: 1-5 ATS, Away: 5-3 ATS, Neutral: 0-2 ATS)
SEA: 8-8 ATS (Home: 6-2 ATS, Away: 2-6 ATS)
Check the Week 13 Lines at SI Sportsbook
Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
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