NBA Spread, Over/Under and Prop Bets: Celtics-Nets, Bucks-Lakers
Tuesday night brings a pair of primetime games featuring two of the league’s storied franchises in the Celtics and Lakers.
Boston heads to Brooklyn to take on a short-handed Nets squad that’s lost eight games in a row. Out in Los Angeles, the Lakers host the defending champion Bucks.
My NBA picks have been hot lately—I’m 10-2 over the last two SO/UP (Spread, over/under, prop) picks. I’m hoping to keep it up tonight with SI writer Michael Shapiro joining me as a guest picker. Let’s do that basketball.
Season record: 87-83-2
Guest pickers: 65-95
Check the Latest NBA Odds at SI Sportsbook
John Raoux/AP
Boston Celtics (30-25) vs. Brooklyn Nets (29-24)
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | TNT
Spread: Celtics -7.5 (-110) | Nets +7.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Celtics (-300) | Nets (+240)
Total: Under 215.5 (-110) | Over 215.5 (-110)
Injuries: Nets F Nic Claxton—Day-to-day; Nets C LaMarcus Aldridge—Out; Nets F Kevin Durant—Out; Nets G James Harden—Day-to-day; Nets G Kyrie Irving—Out
Celtics Profile
Record Over Last 10 Games: 7-3
ATS Record: 26-27-2
O/U Record: 22-32-1
Points Per Game/Rank: 108.1/19
Points Allowed Per Game/Rank: 104/4
Boston has won its last five games, including three on the road, heading into Tuesday’s meeting with Brooklyn. The Nets won in Boston when these teams met earlier in the season, but that was with Kevin Durant and James Harden available. The Celtics’ recent stretch has them in position to pass the Nets for seventh place in the conference and Boston sneakily has a very strong point differential.
Nets Profile
Record Over Last 10 Games: 2-8
ATS Record: 19-33-1
O/U Record: 24-28-1
Points Per Game/Rank: 111.3/10
Points Allowed Per Game/Rank: 110.8/20
Brooklyn is riding an eight-game losing streak and just wrapped up a winless five-game West Coast road trip. With the Nets back home, Kyrie Irving is unable to play, Kevin Durant remains out and James Harden is a game-time decision, having missed the past two games with a hamstring injury. This recent slide by the title favorites to a play-in spot is concerning—the offense is lacking and the defense has been sieve-like.
Kyle Wood’s Bets:
Spread Pick: Celtics -7.5
The Nets' best-case scenario against the Celtics is to have Harden available after missing back-to-back games. More likely? Harden is out and Brooklyn is taking on a hot Boston team without any of its three stars. The Nets have the worst ATS record in the NBA, per TeamRankings.com. The Celtics aren’t significantly better ATS, but they have their guys in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown and have covered three of their last five games on their current win streak. Give me Boston in Brooklyn.
Over/Under Pick: Under 215.5
The Celtics have one of the stingiest defenses in basketball. They allowed just 83 points last time out against the Magic and have held four of their last five opponents below 100 points. It’s difficult to see the Nets eclipsing that without any of their stars. As it is, their scoring suffered on their recent fruitless road trip. Boston doesn’t have an offense to write home about, even with their stars healthy, so I’m confident they keep this game from going over.
Prop: Al Horford Over 6.5 Rebounds (-142)
I was surprised to see this line so low. Horford has grabbed 10-plus rebounds in three straight games and averages 7.5 boards on the season. The Nets are a middle-of-the-pack rebounding team and Horford should easily be able to corral seven rebounds, especially given Brooklyn could be missing its top four rebounders and shot makers.
Guest Picker Michael Shapiro’s picks:
Spread Pick: Celtics -7.5
No Kyrie Irving, no Kevin Durant and possibly no James Harden is a bad combo for Brooklyn, and I’m not so sure even the Harden solo show can keep things close. Boston has won seven of eight. It sits No. 4 in defensive rating. Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum are in a groove, and Ime Udoka seems to have found the right rotation after a shaky start. Expect these teams to continue moving in opposite directions.
Over/Under Pick: Under 215.5
We’ll likely see plenty of public money on the under here if Harden doesn’t play, and you could even snag a little value if Harden plays and this total rises. Boston has been downright stingy of late, and neither of these teams are likely to get to the free-throw line at an impressive clip. We could see a relative rock fight in Brooklyn.
Prop: Robert Williams Over 9.5 points (-112)
TimeLord has reached double figures in each of the last three contests, and Brooklyn doesn’t have the interior presence to keep the Texas A&M product out of the paint on lob passes and put-back opportunities. The Williams point total feels like a smart bet, as does any prop on him to record a double-double
Mark J. Terrill/AP
Milwaukee Bucks (34-21) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (26-28)
Time: 10 p.m. ET | TNT
Spread: Bucks -3.5 (-110) | Lakers +3.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Bucks (-167) | Lakers (+140)
Total: Under 232.5 (-110) | Over 232.5 (-110)
Injuries: Bucks G Grayson Allen—Day-to-day; Lakers F LeBron James—Day-to-day; Lakers F Anthony Davis—Day-to-day; Lakers F Carmelo Anthony—Out; Lakers C Dwight Howard—Day-to-day
Bucks Profile
Record Over Last 10 Games: 7-3
ATS Record: 25-30
O/U Record: 25-30
Points Per Game/Rank: 112.7/4
Points Allowed Per Game/Rank: 108.7/15
Milwaukee won its last three games by double-digits and is off to a 2-0 start on its western conference road trip, having blown out the Trail Blazers and Clippers. The defending champions are in the thick of things at the top of the crowded East in large part thanks to the sustained excellent play of Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Lakers Profile
Record Over Last 10 Games: 4-6
ATS Record: 24-30
O/U Record: 31-23
Points Per Game/Rank: 110.9/11
Points Allowed Per Game/Rank: 112.3/26
L.A. is coming off an overtime win against the Knicks on Saturday and the two full days of rest should do this team well. Anthony Davis and LeBron are still day-to-day, though James returned from a five-game absence over the weekend, and Carmelo Anthony, the team’s fourth-leading scorer, is out. The Lakers are still toiling in play-in game range, unable to get up above .500 as the All-Star break approaches.
Kyle Wood’s Bets:
Spread Pick: Bucks -3.5
I’m not betting against Milwaukee the way this team has been playing. The Bucks outscored their last three opponents by a combined 67 points and went for 137 points in back-to-back games. Milwaukee won the first meeting between these two teams at home and Antetokounmpo scored 47 in that game. The Lakers haven’t beaten an above .500 team in two weeks and I don’t see that changing against the Bucks, even though L.A. fares much better at home than on the road.
Over/Under Pick: Over 232.5
Remember that bit about the Bucks scoring 137 points in consecutive games? Milwaukee has a top-five scoring offense and Los Angeles ranks just outside of the top 10. These teams can both put up points in a hurry. The Bucks’ scoring defense isn’t what it once was and neither is the Lakers’, who now have a bottom-five unit on that side of the ball. Lakers games go over at one of the highest rates in the league and the hot-shooting Bucks can make sure that trend continues.
Prop: Anthony Davis Over 24.5 Points (-110)
Davis has been on a tear since returning from injury. He scored eight points in his first game back against the Nets two weeks ago and hasn’t scored less than 27 since. He’s shooting at a ridiculous percentage, staying away from threes and is a monster on the glass. Even in a Lakers loss, I like Davis to keep it up with another strong outing.
Guest Picker Michael Shapiro’s Bets:
Spread Pick: Lakers +3.5
The Bucks haven’t exactly been dominant in their title defense. Milwaukee is just plus-3.6 points per 100 possessions in its last 10 games, and the Brook Lopez's absence has left somewhat of a void in the middle. The Lakers are effectively a disaster at the moment, though frankly, we should see some urgency from this group as the trade deadline approaches. Perhaps this is a totally unsalvageable situation in Los Angeles. Perhaps we should scrap any idea of escaping the play-in tournament. But I’ll keep the faith a little longer. With an inflated line and home court, I like the value for the Lakers.
Over/Under Pick: Over 232.5
Milwaukee’s offense has clicked on the west coast with its Big 3 healthy, while on the other end of the floor, we could see a big night from Anthony Davis. Another dismal shooting night from Russell Westbrook could derail Los Angeles’s chances, but even if that comes to fruition, we could see Milwaukee hang 125-plus points in a blowout. I’ll take the over here as defenses trudge to the All-Star break.
Prop: Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 1.5 made threes (+126)
Antetokounmpo has attempted three-plus attempts from beyond the arc in each of his last 10 games, showing increasing willingness to let it fly as defenses continue to sag. This is largely just a hunch, but I feel good about Antetokounmpo sinking a couple of threes in front of the Los Angeles crowd. Getting this at plus money is an added bonus in a prop the market may be slow to embrace.
DFS Value Plays
(Prices based on 7 p.m. main slate)
PG Tyrese Haliburton, Kings (FD: $7,600 | DK: $8,600)
SG Jalen Brunson, Mavericks ($5,800 | $6,900)
SF RJ Barrett, Knicks ($6,800 | $7,000)
PF Bobby Portis, Bucks ($6,200 | $6,600)
C Steven Adams, Grizzlies ($6,100 | $5,500)
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