March Madness Elite Eight Against the Spread Bets, Odds: Houston vs. Villanova
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One could argue No. 5 Houston had the harder path to the Elite Eight compared to its opponent, No. 2 Villanova. But the way Kelvin Sampson's team plays basketball, they probably prefer it that way.
For the Cougars, this is a chance to advance to the Final Four for the second year in a row and perhaps capture the school’s first-ever national title.
For Jay Wright’s Wildcats, they can return to the biggest stage in college basketball for the first time since 2018, when they last won it all.
These programs actually met in a regional final once before, all the way back in 1983. No. 1 Houston handled No. 13 Villanova easily, winning 89-71. The oddsmakers expect a much closer game than that meeting—the Cougars are 1.5-point favorites.
Matt Ehalt and I each broke down this game and made our picks for which team will advance to the Final Four.
Matt Ehalt NCAA tournament against the spread (ATS) record: 23-20–1
Kyle Wood NCAA tournament ATS record: 19-28-1
Sweet 16/Elite 8 betting previews: Purdue-Saint Peter’s | Kansas-Providence | UCLA-UNC | Two Bets for Friday | Arkansas-Duke | Best Bet for Saturday
Check the Latest NCAA Tournament Odds and Lines from SI Sportsbook
Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-USA TODAY Sports
No. 2 Villanova (29-7) vs. No. 5 Houston (32-5)
Time: 6:09 p.m. ET | TBS
Spread: Villanova +1.5 (-118) | Houston -1.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Villanova (+120) | Houston (-150)
Over/Under: Under 128.5 (-118) | Over 128.5 (-110)
Houston’s Path
The Cougars’ run of double-digit wins in the tournament continued Thursday. Houston downed No. 1 Arizona soundly, 72-60, and now finds itself as co-favorites to win the title. Before beating the Wildcats in the Sweet 16, the Cougars got the best of No. 12 UAB in the round of 64 and No. 4 Illinois in the round of 32.
UH’s suffocating defense has limited opponents to a little more than 60 ppg in the tournament and its offense relies on a rotating cast of scorers. A different player has led Houston in scoring in each tournament game and it would be no surprise if a fourth led the team against Villanova—five players average 10 or more ppg.
Villanova’s Path
The Wildcats’ toughest game of the tourney came against a familiar foe: Michigan. The two programs squared off in the 2018 national title game, a Villanova victory, and Wright led his team to another win over the Wolverines in the Sweet 16.
Michigan battled admirably, but the Wildcats’ pesky defense and some timely outside shots led to a 63-55 win. Before the challenge from UM, Villanova handled No. 15 Delaware and No. 7 Ohio State in the opening weekend of tournament play. A different player has stepped up each game on offense for the Wildcats as well. On Thursday it was Jermaine Samuels, who went for 22 points in the win.
Kyle Wood’s Bet: Houston -1.5
It’s fair to say the Cougars were underseeded. Just a tad.
They’ve lost just five games , have the second-best scoring margin in college basketball (+16) and the No. 3 scoring defense (59 ppg), and that’s with injuries to multiple key players during their march to March.
So, what’s going to stop them now?
Among the remaining teams in the field, Houston is the highest ranked on KenPom, with top-10 defensive and offensive efficiencies. Villanova is just one spot behind on offense, though its defense does not hold up to the Cougars’. To be fair, not many do.
UH has the edge in rebounding and counting stats on defense with active hands in the lane and on the perimeter causing plenty of turnovers.
Villanova’s edge over most teams is its clean play.
The Wildcats hit their free throws, don’t turn the ball over and hit their three-pointers at an alarming rate. I think the Cougars can cause some chaos the way they did against Arizona.
Houston held Arizona's Benedict Mathurin to 15 points on 4-14 shooting and the defense will similarly be all over Collin Gillespie, one of the best three-point shooters in the nation. Villanova certainly has other scorers—and shooters—who can and have stepped up if Gillespie is limited but UH plays tight defense for all 94 feet for 40 minutes and will make sure this game plays out on its terms.
This team was in the Final Four just a season ago. I’m betting they make it back.
Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-USA TODAY Sports
Matt Ehalt’s Bet: Houston -1.5
I hate this line. I really do.
I’ll admit I placed some wagers on Arizona on Thursday night fully expecting the Wildcats would beat Houston. But the Cougars blasted them, and now they’ll try to make it two straight wins against higher-seeded Wildcats.
I also hate picking against Villanova. I do. But two things lead me to Houston:
First, this is a home game of sorts for Houston. This game is in San Antonio, a three-hour drive from Houston. There will be more Houston fans at this game than Villanova. I attended the UConn-Michigan State Elite Eight game at MSG in 2014, a UConn home game. Having the fans strongly on your side makes a big difference.
Second, Collin Gillespie may not be 100%. That’s a big development for Villanova heading into a game against a top-10 defense. Look at what Houston did to Arizona’s top-10 offense Thursday: 18-54 from the field, 7-22 from three.
If Gillespie isn’t 100%, Villanova could have a tough time against such a ferocious defense.
This is also the rare game where Villanova doesn’t have the decided coaching advantage. Kelvin Sampson is one great coach.
With just a 1.5-point line, I’m going with Houston here while knowing that betting against Villanova is not wise. However, this is not an elite Villanova team like in past years and Houston ranks better in both offense and defense at KenPom.
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